The junk or
high yield bond markets in the U.S. have seen diverse returns so far in 2015.
Not exact matches
LONDON, April 23 - Hamstrung by a renewed slump
in volatility and lack of clear
market direction, FX and
bond speculators are making historically big bets on a lower dollar and
higher yields.
Also, as
bond rates rise, some of the money that migrated over from the
bond market in search of
higher yields will return to the safety of fixed income.
So far, though, no one is reporting any unusual outflows
in the
bond market, but Hamilton - Keen cautions investors against chasing
high -
yield products.
In the short - term, however, this increased leverage may actually be bullish for junk
bonds, corporate
bonds, emerging
market debt and mortgage - backed securities as it brings
higher prices and lower
yields, he said.
The
yield on the U.S. 10 - year Treasury jumped to its
highest level since 2014 on Friday morning, underlining a wider move
in bond markets caused by central banks moving away from financial crisis policies.
The sell off
in the
market for
high yield debt, or junk
bonds, is now hitting a type of structured
bond that is similar to the the type that blew up
in the financial crisis.
On Wednesday,
bond yields in both the U.S. and Germany reached
highs on the year, which likely helped trigger a selloff
in equity
markets Thursday.
By mid-December it was clear that a late - quarter rout
in the
high -
yield bond market was likely to hit revenues.
Exchange - traded funds that track
high -
yield bond indexes have been the beneficiaries of a cash surge
in recent weeks as
market participants figure the central bank probably won't raise rates
in 2015, and it could be well into 2016 before anything happens.
Bond yields snapped
higher, adding to their already steep gains, and federal funds derivatives showed
market expectations are moving closer to pricing
in a full three interest rate hikes by December.
yields will hit the
highs on close end of the day... equity
markets setting up to be slammed tomorrow maybe but today they have run over weak shorts
in the face of rates... the federal reserve see's this and again will wonder if they are behind on hikes, strong data, major expansion
in credit, lack of wage growth rising
bond yields and ballooning debt... rates will go much
higher and equities will have revelations as to what that means for valuations
Yields on U.S. government
bonds are already some of the
highest in the sovereign debt
markets and are attractive to non-U.S. buyers on an absolute and relative basis.
Invest
in high -
yield bonds and dividend -
yielding stocks, says the BofA - Merrill team, which is overweight
high - grade and
high -
yield corporate
bonds, including financial sector names that are especially sensitive to the housing
market.
This leaves us roughly
in the same position that we started the year, slightly overweight to spread product, i.e., investment - grade and
high -
yield corporate
bonds and emerging
markets (more recently, we also went back to a slight overweight on commercial mortgage - backed securities).
In a zero - interest rate world (Figure 7), these provide yields that are much higher than those found in more conventional investments like U.S. Treasury bonds or money market account
In a zero - interest rate world (Figure 7), these provide
yields that are much
higher than those found
in more conventional investments like U.S. Treasury bonds or money market account
in more conventional investments like U.S. Treasury
bonds or money
market accounts.
In the credit markets, both investment - grade and high - yield corporate bonds had negative returns for the first time in eight quarters, with down - in - quality subsectors in each unconventionally outperforming higher quality one
In the credit
markets, both investment - grade and
high -
yield corporate
bonds had negative returns for the first time
in eight quarters, with down - in - quality subsectors in each unconventionally outperforming higher quality one
in eight quarters, with down -
in - quality subsectors in each unconventionally outperforming higher quality one
in - quality subsectors
in each unconventionally outperforming higher quality one
in each unconventionally outperforming
higher quality ones.
Like most sectors of the fixed - income
market, municipal
bonds struggled
in the first quarter as
yields climbed
higher.
Recent increases
in inflation expectations have triggered repricing
in the fixed - income
markets, but we expect inflation and
bond yields to trend only modestly
higher.
The era of cheap or zero - interest money that led to a wall of liquidity chasing
high yields and assets — equities,
bonds, currencies, and commodities —
in emerging
markets is drawing to a close.
With
market volatility hitting multi-decade lows, junk
bond yields also at record lows, the median price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents at a record
high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket»
in the prices of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift
in risk premiums.
But cash isn't such a bad thing
in a rising rate environment as the
yield pick up rather quickly on money
market accounts or you can roll some of that over into
higher yielding short - term
bonds.
I still think there will be a flight to safety
in sovereign
bonds when stocks have a bear
market but other areas such as
high yield and corporate debt could run into some problems.
And I think that given
higher volatility
in the
markets, going into
higher yielding bonds or stocks, the risker ones, is unadvisable.
As
bond yields surged on Friday,
high -
yielding segments of the equity
market such as utilities and REITs came under the most pressure, which shows that it won't take much of a rise
in yields to derail their rally.
However, these
higher yielding bonds are often the most risky, resulting
in a lower risk - adjusted return than the broad
market.
We believe the key to investing
in high yield bonds is investing
in solid companies run by strong management teams that can navigate variable
market conditions.
When I was a junk
bond trader
in the 1990's,
high yield money would be pulled from the
market abruptly and quickly, usually about a week before the stock
market would undergo a big sell - off.
«Every time the
bond market moves dramatically and unexpectedly
higher in yield, the consensus forecast plays catch - up,» says Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Interest Rate Strategy for Morgan Stanley Research.
Emerging companies While many
high yield bonds are issued by former investment grade companies
in decline, the
high yield market also provides financing opportunities for emerging companies seeking working capital for expansion or to fund acquisitions.
Because credit and default risk are the dominant drivers of valuations of
high yield bonds, changes
in market interest rates are relatively less important.
The average investment - grade (
high -
yield)
bond trades on less than 32 % (36 %) of days over the prior six months — liquidity
in corporate
bonds was considerably lower than
in traditional listed equity
markets.
The dollar
bond market has turned cold for Indian firms after a record 2017, with rising global interest rates, geopolitical concerns and
market volatility prompting would - be financiers to demand either a
higher yield or invest only
in short - term paper maturing
in two years.
We see few opportunities
in the U.S.
high yield bond market.
In the
bond market, Treasuries were
higher, but little - changed, with the 2 - year
yield right at 2.5 % and the 10 - year sitting at 2.96 %.
High Yield Bond Funds posted outflows for the 13th time
in the past 15 weeks, with the latest redemptions the biggest since early March, while Emerging
Markets Bond Funds recorded their largest outflow since the second week of February.
He also believes
higher -
yielding emerging -
market bonds are attractive to institutional investors, given very low
bond yields in developed
markets.
Market participants are looking forward to getting their first major reading on earnings from the biggest technology - sector players
in the coming days, but for now, investor sentiment has been able to overcome what would ordinarily be a troubling rise
in long - term
bond yields that could signal a steeper move
higher for interest rates
in the near future.
The
market's continuing refusal to countenance the long - term reality described above has proven to be a recurring source of profits for those who are willing to buck the crowd and embrace the trend
in falling long - term
bond yields of the
highest quality borrowers.
Note: HYG the $ 20bln
high yield ETF
yields 5.13 %
in comparison, hence you might need to buy an out of favor sector like bricks and mortar retail, otherwise non-rated is likely where you will find > 7 %
in the US domestic
bond market.
As I emphasized last week, «While we're already observing cracks
in market internals
in the form of breakdowns
in small cap stocks,
high yield bond prices,
market breadth, and other areas, it's not clear yet whether the risk preferences of investors have shifted durably.
Higher bond yields have had a dampening influence on share
markets around the world
in recent months.
He also noted that it is a very poor time to buy corporate
bonds (
high yield bond index
yield 4.93 %) and Gundlach sees a negative return for the S&P
in 2018 as the rates rout eventually gives the equity
market the yips.
A factor pushing
yields higher in Japan has been the large supply of
bonds coming onto the
market to fund the budget deficit.
Read MoreJeremy Siegel: Here's what will send
yields higher «It would appear that the reversal
in the
bond market was above internal technicals.
It also can be used to compare the whole
market against
bond yields...
In most cases the earnings yield of equities are much higher then in risk free treasury bonds Earnings yield is basically the amount of earnings you buy for every dollars worth of.
In most cases the earnings
yield of equities are much
higher then
in risk free treasury bonds Earnings yield is basically the amount of earnings you buy for every dollars worth of.
in risk free treasury
bonds Earnings
yield is basically the amount of earnings you buy for every dollars worth of...
High yield bonds (
bonds rated below investment grade) may have speculative characteristics and present significant risks beyond those of other securities, including greater credit risk, price volatility, and limited liquidity
in the secondary
market.
As Japan's JGB
market has shown for a decade, you don't need
high yields to see impressive gains
in bonds.
This is a
market - based estimate of the amount of fear
in the
bond market Bass - rated
bonds are the lowest quality
bonds that are considered investment - grade, rather than
high -
yield.
Brace for some ups and downs
in markets, but consider positioning your portfolio to pursue income through preferred stocks, total shareholder payout and
high yield bond - oriented ETFs.