On the high end, recent work suggests that 4 feet is plausible.23, 3,6,7,8 In the context of risk - based analysis, some decision makers may wish to use a wider range of scenarios, from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100.10,2 In particular, the high end of these scenarios may be useful for decision makers with a low tolerance for risk (see Figure 2.26 on global sea level rise).10, 2 Although scientists can not yet assign likelihood to any particular scenario, in general, higher emissions scenarios that lead to more warming would be expected to lead to
higher amounts of sea level rise.
Not exact matches
Co-author Peter Clark, an OSU paleoclimatologist, said that because current carbon dioxide, or CO2,
levels are as
high as they were 3 million years ago, «we are already committed to a certain
amount of sea level rise.»
Since 1990, observed
sea level has followed the uppermost uncertainty limit
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), which was constructed by assuming the
highest emission scenario combined with the
highest climate sensitivity and adding an ad hoc
amount of sea -
level rise for «ice sheet uncertainty» (1).
The only problem with all the predictions about the
level of the World Ocean
rising is that, the World Ocean is refusing to
rise up in support
of the predictions, the other problem is that ice is frozen fresh water and frozen fresh water only covers about 5 %
of this planet above
sea level and frozen water under the
level of the World Ocean does not count as the World Ocean will fall a small
amount if that ice melts, so if the ice there is enough to get the World Ocean to
rise and significant
amount then it must be piled up very
high, I cubic kilometer
of water as ice, should it melt, would make 1000 square kilometers
rise by one meter, so when you use this simple math then somewhere on the planet, above the
level of the
sea, then there must be over 500,000 cubic kilometers
of ice, piled up and just waiting to melt, strange that no one can find that
amount of ice, all these morons who talk about the
rise of the World Ocean in tens
of meters, this includes you Peter Garrett or Mr. 7 Meters, the ice does not exist to allow this
amount of rise in the World Ocean, it is just not there.
The IPCC estimates that
sea levels could be 3 feet
higher in 2100, while Hansen and his colleagues predict a
rise of at least twice that
amount.
Then just in terms
of how far a storm will reach, the surge that will happen, we saw with Sandy that it also wasn't controversial to say that when you already have a certain
amount of sea level rise, and we do already have that, then when there is a huge storm surge, then because you're starting from an already
higher level, this storm is going to reach
higher.
Perhaps some gross thermomechanical process
of restructuring the climate mechanisms (some small fraction
of these were identified in the Stadium Wave paper, for instance) is ongoing, and the energy
of restructuring — melting, subliming and carrying away Arctic
sea ice and Greenland and Antarctic land ice net to the atmosphere,
higher humidity absorbing gross water
amounts to a
level impacting
sea level rise on the millimeter or sub-millimeter
level, expansion
of land due heat, or more likely erosion, silting and subsidence, and so on — is responsible for a Black Swan.
Again, it's not the gradual long - term
rise in
sea -
levels that is a direct threat - thought to
amount to as much as 1 meter, or 3 feet, over the next century - but how that
higher base - line affects the natural «sloshing about»
of sea.