Any delay in reducing CO2 emissions is likely to lead to
higher cumulative emissions, and more warming.
Not exact matches
, «Their
emissions are low now, but their historical
cumulative emissions are
higher!»
«The average per capita resource use in wealthy countries is 5 to 10 times
higher than in developing countries, and the developed countries are responsible for over three quarters of
cumulative greenhouse gas
emissions from 1850 to 2000.»
«The
higher the
cumulative carbon
emissions are, the warmer it gets.»
Toyota's own data show that the
cumulative effect of full hybrid operation leads to
high proportions of zero -
emissions, EV driving.
By some estimates,
cumulative emissions in 2014 might be
higher than the models simply be because
emissions were consistently above the RCP range between 2005 - 2014.
It's a big job, but it's one that has to be done anyway, since if the whole world tries to pull itself into prosperity by burning carbon at the rate the US does, then we run out of coal even at the
highest estimates by 2100, and you wind up with no fossil energy and the hellish climate you get from 5000 gigatonnes
cumulative emission.
If this is right, the Millar available
cumulative emissions budget would be biased
high.
If you want to talk about equity, look at the
cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and going into the oceans and acidifying it, and the vast majority comes from the industrializied countries, the US and so forth — and the per capita
emissions are much
higher.
The AEO2015 cases with the largest differences in
cumulative emissions from the Reference case are two cases that consider
higher or lower macroeconomic growth.
For example, the «400 ppm CO2 - e»
emissions pathway in the Knopf et al. study has
cumulative fossil fuel
emissions of about 1100 gigatonnes from 2000 to 2050, far
higher than the
cumulative emissions in our 350 ppm pathway.
Other marine - based drainage systems become unstable under
higher emission scenarios, until most of the marine ice is eventually lost to the self - reinforcing feedback after about 2500 GtC of
cumulative carbon release
Under the assumption that society will work to avoid crossing a key temperature threshold, from figure 2a, the
cumulative emission metric confirms that we have a choice of
high emissions soon followed by rapid decarbonization, or more stringent
emission cuts occurring soon with a lower rate of decarbonization in the future.
«The proportionality of warming to
cumulative emissions depends in part on a cancellation of the saturation of carbon sinks with increasing
cumulative emissions (leading to a larger airborne fraction of
cumulative emissions for
higher emissions) and the logarithmic dependence of radiative forcing on atmospheric CO2 concentration [leading to a smaller increase in radiative forcing per unit increase in atmospheric CO2 at
higher CO2 concentrations; Matthews et al. (2009)-RSB-.
This means that, up to roughly 1.8 °C, the
cumulative emissions between 2010 and 2050 has some skill in predicting peak CO2 - induced warming, but this skill is reduced for
higher temperatures.
The yellow
emission pathway has a
higher cumulative total than the green one, when integrated to the time when temperatures peak.
Despite this
higher cumulative total, the green curve has a
higher peak warming than the yellow curve because its
emissions are put into the atmosphere over a shorter time period.
But if
cumulative emissions are
high, the portion remaining in the atmosphere could be
higher than this, models suggest.
«In our mor recent global model simulations the ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the ocean uptake of carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as temperature rises are stronger,
cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over the century are
higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol
emissions is lower.
The recent U.S. contribution to annual global
emissions is about 18 %, but the U.S. contribution to
cumulative global
emissions over the last century is much
higher.
The AEO 2017 Reference case features marginally lower
emissions than AEO 2016 (a
cumulative decrease of 1 percent between 2017 and 2030), and features 2050
emissions over four times
higher than is recommended by climate scientists (see Figure 5).
Cumulative non-CO2
emissions are lower than those in the RCP2.6 pathway by about 15 %, but annual non-CO2
emissions still remain above a fairly
high minimum level («floor») of around 5 Gt CO2e.
Primary energy demand until 2035, from «Facing China's Coal Future», figure 1, page 7, Increases in carbon
emissions by fuel type for regions with
highest absolute
emissions growth, 2008 - 2035 from IEO2011, figures 115, page 143, and «
Cumulative carbon dioxide
emissions by region», figure 116, also on page 143, same link as above.
It gives a TCR range of 1.0C - 2.5 C and a transient response to
cumulative CO2
emissions of 0.8C - 2.5 C. Again, no best estimates, so they really don't know what climate sensitivity might actually be; could be low, could be
high.
The majority of the world's people live at what would be considered desperate poverty levels in developed countries, the average per capita material and energy use in developed countries is
higher than in developing countries by a factor of 5 to 10 [25], and the developed countries are responsible for over three quarters of
cumulative greenhouse gas
emissions from 1850 to 2000 [85].