While I expect that gold bullion and the HUI will rise to much
higher levels
during the second half of this
year, I don't have a strong opinion on whether they will break above their nearby resistance levels within the
next few weeks.
A further unpleasant reality adds to the industry's dim prospects: Insurance earnings are now benefitting [sic] from «legacy» bond portfolios that deliver much
higher yields than will be available when funds are reinvested
during the
next few years — and perhaps for many
years beyond that.
I.e. solar activity was
high in most of the 20th centiry and then peaked in about 1985, together with a 20 - 30
year heat lag (since it remained
high until 1996 as well), and oceans take a
few decades to equilbrate, (the same as summer takes about 6 weeks to reach maximum temperature after the summer solstice, and every day it takes a
few hours after noon to reach maximum temperature), so the earth has taken a
few decades to reach maximum temperature after the long
high in solar activity
during the 20th century, and will now go down in temperature over the
next few decades, with now both a negative PDO, and reduced solar activity.