Thus, no «net energy gain» and no»
higher equilibrium temperature».
I am not arguing against what you say, just trying to understand the mechanism... I have always known an object cools more slowly and reaches
a higher equilibrium temperature in a warm surroundings than a cold one, but had considered that an effect of gradient, not as you say a result of energy input from the colder surroundings.
Usually when you add energy to a surface it moves to a new
higher equilibrium temperature, not a lower equilibrium temperature.
Greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere in very small increments relatively — this reduces the heat loss from oceans that are routinely warmer than the new
higher equilibrium temperature.
However it does still mean that temperatures rise — and at any given level of CO2 forcing this effect will mean
a higher equilibrium temperature.
Actually to reach a new,
higher equilibrium temperature, the Earth surface (including oceans) must warm and thus the radiative budget MUST be unbalanced, less radiation must be emitted in space compared to the (unchanged) incoming solar radiation.
Now, should the reduced concentration persist, more energy will continue to accumulate in the system until a new,
higher equilibrium temperature is reached (the equilibrium response).
This leads to
a higher equilibrium temperature, but balance is reestablished again in a sense that time averages of energy in - and - out are equal for each volume element, given some fixed elevation of greenhouse gas concentration.
As far as I know, if the only physical mechanism under consideration is the radiative cooling of the planet's surface (which was heated by shortwave solar radiation and reradiated at longer wavelengths in the infrared) via radiative transport, additional gas of any kind can only result in
a higher equilibrium temperature.
Not exact matches
Because the two
temperatures (skin and air) seek
equilibrium, the
higher difference between air and skin make women feel colder.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in
equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking
highs, increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Consider a box willed with gas, under two conditions: (1) the first box is in
equilibrium, at
high temperature, and thus has a
high energy content; (2) the second box has low energy content, but is out of
equilibrium: it is stirred by turbulent convection, produced by heating from below and cooling from above.
The vapor pressure in
equilibrium with supercooled droplets (liquid H2O) is
higher than that in
equilibrium with solid H2O at the same
temperature, so liquid droplets will evaporate to feed deposition on an effective ice nucleus.
Aslo, regarding climate sensitivity a very key thing to remember, especially if sensitivity turns out to be on the
high side, is that the «final»
equilibrium temperature (Alexi's concerns about there being such a thing aside) calculated from climate sensitivity does not take into account carbon cycle feedbacks OR ice sheet changes.
However,
equilibrium is always achieved at a
higher overall
temperature.
(The actual
equilibrium takes on the order of a few thousand years, the mixing time of the oceans, to reach... But that's at constant
temperature... So if the oceans warm significantly, then we lock in a new
equilibrium, at
higher atmospheric CO2 for much longer timescales.)
Given those two factors and ignoring future emissions that will drive the
temperature even
higher, we are already over +2 C warming once we stop emitting short - lived coal smoke and other pollutants into the air and we give the Earth time to reach
temperature equilibrium.
Jim, Agreed, and depending on what one thinks will happen with methane and what one thinks the time to
equilibrium might be — the answer could actually
higher or lower than the ultimate
equilibrium temperature.
Fred, are you distinguishing the stratosphere
temperature — during the period of nonequilibrium from — during the new
equilibrium period after CO2 stops increasing and the warming has leveled off at a
higher temperature?
If the Earth absorbs more energy, its
temperature rises, which causes it to radiate more energy back into space (Stefan - Boltzmann law) until it reaches
equilibrium at a
higher temperature.
As things warm up, outflow rises (more longwave, more convection) until
equilibrium is reached at a
higher temperature.
The alternative formula, that a change in
temperature causes a change in dynamic
equilibrium between CO2 release and CO2 absorption is far more normal in nature:
higher temperatures lead to a new
equilibrium at a
higher CO2 level.
In your many lines — thankyou — i found the key argument how you can be convinced that the
temperature only creates variation for a very short time: YOu write: «The net result is that a new
equilibrium (at a
higher CO2 level) is reached in relative short time, between a few months (seasons) to a few years (sustained
higher average
temperature level).»
Thus while CO2 and
temperature are thightly coupled and CO2 levels in the atmosphere follow the seasonal cooling within a month, the other factor, the emissions independently increases the amounts, pushing the setpoint of the
equilibrium to
higher levels.
The
high emissivity of CO2 in the IR actually contributes to our radiative
equilibrium temperature being another 20K or more lower than that but I'll wait until somebody is interested in implementing the computations in CoSy or puts a table, not a graph, of an actual measured mean spectrum in my lap.
«the tendency to a radiative
equilibrium means that the emitter with the
higher surface
temperature will loose energy due to a negative net radiation balance until this net radiation balance becomes zero.»
It clearly states that (a) emission of energy by radiation is accompanied with cooling of the surface (if no compensating changes prevent it), and (b) the tendency to a radiative
equilibrium means that the emitter with the
higher surface
temperature will loose energy due to a negative net radiation balance until this net radiation balance becomes zero.
As long as the AAL is a closed loop and kept independent of the Solar Diabatic Loop (SDL) then system
equilibrium is maintained however
high the surface
temperature might rise.
They cool to form the new local thermodynamic
equilibrium at the new
higher temperature.
Therefore at low
temperatures and
high pressures as is the case in the low atmosphere, the
equilibrium between the different quantum states (the proportions must stay constant) is mainly ruled by collisions.
Anyway, I have encountered this question out in the wilds, and my response was that the CO2 container would have the lower
equilibrium temperature, the N2 container the
higher because the CO2 is a good LW emitter and the N2 is not, consistent with, «So if you assume that two contained «bubbles» of gas with a given
temperature were placed in space the N2 would cool much more slowly.»
willb, further, heat plus radiation is net from the ocean, but what CO2 affects is the downward IR, which offsets part of that net, and results in a
higher equilibrium ocean
temperature.
Reducing CO2 emissions to zero as rapidly as possible is the only thing we KNOW that we can do; and only after that will the planet eventually be able to arrive at some new,
higher,
equilibrium temperature and stable climate — which climate, hopefully, will still be a livable one.
By definition that can only happen if the
temperature of the hohlraum increases to a
higher equilibrium value.
Of all the linear
temperature profiles, find entropy maximization requires the
equilibrium temperature of Fig. 1 to decrease with increasing height i.e. it is non-isothermal, T1b is required to be
higher than T1t by proper maximization of entropy.
Thus, the
temperature of the gas at the bottom is
higher than the gas at the top in the presence of gravity, and indeed this is a stable arrangement in thermodynamic
equilibrium.
It is just a delaying effect whereby the surface
temperature increases until the increase in surface / space
temperature differential in turn increases the rate of radiation to space and a new but
higher temperature equilibrium is reached.
No heat flows in Fig. 1 in
equilibrium yet
temperature decreases with increasing height according to all 3 ref.s I've cited w / the specific ref.s: «Please be specific» (a quote from my
high school English teacher).
There is a widespread view that a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an organised global community, is likely to be beyond «adaptation,» is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a
high probability of not being stable (i.e., 4 degrees C would be an interim
temperature on the way to a much
higher equilibrium level).
«MDR says: January 24, 2012 at 1:14 pm Thus, the
temperature of the gas at the bottom is
higher than the gas at the top in the presence of gravity, and indeed this is a stable arrangement in thermodynamic
equilibrium.»
It's just fundamental physics that this large radiative forcing must result in global warming until the Earth reaches a new energy
equilibrium at a
higher temperature.
The
temperature of the water will go up until those rates are matched again, but now the
equilibrium temperature will be
higher.
Note the 2 oldest reconstructions are also the
highest, so I'm sticking to my estimate of a net TSI change between 1910 and 1945 of about 0.3 W / m2, which calculates to an
equilibrium temperature rise of about 0.05 C.
Thus going back to 1846 and John Tyndall, anyone with statistical thermodynamics» knowledge knows that thermalisation of IR from a
higher temperature source can not occur in the gas phase at local thermodynamic
equilibrium.
The only comment I agree with is that the shell does not transfer «heat» to the sphere (by definition of heat transfer), but it does cause the sphere to heat up due to the transfer of back radiation energy (you can have energy transfer both ways, but heat transfer only refers to NET energy transfer), and this requires a
higher sphere
equilibrium temperature for a given energy net transfer for net energy balance.
Pekka, I don't think you are disputing that in an adiabatic convective profile, the
temperature at
higher altitudes is colder, so the
higher molecules are slower, and are continually moving up and down without losing or gaining diabatic energy but with their
temperature changing, so I think this argument is about whether the convective profile is an
equilibrium profile or not.
The twin consequences of this are a) the hotter body cools more slowly; and b) if the hotter body was at a dynamical
equilibrium temperature that was maintained relative to the colder body by some constant input of heat, interpolating the absorber layer will force its
temperature higher so that it can maintain the same rate of energy loss and remain in dynamical
equilibrium.
The
temperature rise at
equilibrium (known, unsurprisingly, as the «
equilibrium» climate sensitivity) is
higher than the transient climate sensitivity (how much
higher is uncertain).
This apparent downward heat transfer is really just establishing a new state of thermodynamic
equilibrium with a
higher mean
temperature due to the new energy arriving when the Sun shines.
The
high thermal inertia of the oceans means there is a slow climb in
temperature to the new
equilibrium point.