A higher inflation target would entail easier policy than is now envisioned.
Additionally, Fed Governor John C. Williams of San Francisco recently published a paper suggesting a shifting focus from monetary policy to fiscal policy and an emphasis on economic growth and
a higher inflation target.
If you really thought what a dovish Fed chair would do, they would actually be trying to push for
a higher inflation target.
All of the factors pointing towards
a higher inflation target have gained force in recent years.
First, the most direct attack on low r - star would be for central banks to pursue a somewhat
higher inflation target.
«So too the Japanese yen, given the active efforts to weaken it through rhetoric,
a higher inflation target, promises of future monetary easing, and a government adamant that it can bring inflation back.»
Theoretically,
a higher inflation target would require the central bank to run a higher policy rate.
Perhaps it's time for
higher inflation targets (reversing the Volcker disinflation paradigm) and fiscal policy to take up the challenge.
Not exact matches
Even if Canada doesn't start dropping payloads of cash itself — something Cooper says he does not foresee in the next three years, at least — the ripple effect of a central bank explicitly
targeting higher inflation and adopting formerly verboten measures to get it would be felt on these shores in the form of increased global volatility.
NEW YORK, May 2 - U.S. stocks edged
higher while the dollar and Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target.
Expectations are
high the Bank of Japan may boost its government bond purchases at its April 3 - 4 policy review, the first under new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has vowed to do whatever it takes to hit the BOJ's new 2 percent
inflation target.
NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters)- U.S. stocks edged
higher while the dollar and Treasury yields fell on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and said
inflation had «moved close» to its
target.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's gauge of
inflation remains stubbornly below its 2 percent
target, but U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields spiked to near four - year
highs in January as a bond sell - off gathered steam.
This was most likely not
high enough to support the Fed's stated
inflation target of 2 % year - over-year.
For instance, Morningstar found that passively managed
target - date funds tend to have fewer holdings in
high - yield bonds and Treasury
inflation - protected securities than their actively managed counterparts.
«This progress reinforces governing council's view that
higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep
inflation on
target.»
If central banks had
targeted higher average
inflation, on the other hand, interest rates would also have been
higher, allowing central banks more space to slash rates to keep the economy functioning.
Finally, in a nominal GDP
targeting regime, a decline in r - star caused by slower trend growth automatically leads to a
higher rate of trend
inflation, providing a larger buffer to respond to economic downturns.
But if there's a grain of truth in the nowcasts, there's a reasonable possibility that
inflation will remain at the Fed's
target or move
higher in the months ahead.
Sometimes people ask whether a
higher target for
inflation might not be better, particularly when
inflation is looking like it will rise and the Bank is running a setting of monetary policy designed to resist that.
«Not only will they tolerate
higher inflation, not only will they wish for
higher inflation, but they actually may
target higher inflation,» El - Erian said during a «Squawk Box» interview.
If
inflation is likely to be too
high for too long, the Reserve Bank Board would typically increase the cash rate to bring
inflation back to the
target.
Beckworth seems to have two concerns: 1) in order to work, cash transfers or any equivalent, have to be «permanent» and 2) unless the ECB allows
inflation to go above
target, any effect will be offset by
higher interest rates.
The implementation of monetary policy in Australia is market - based, with a
high degree of transparency in both the operational objective (expressed in terms of the cash rate
target) and the ultimate objective (expressed as an
inflation target).
Precious and Industrial Metals
Inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions and interest - rate levels, especially real yields, contributed to a 1.7 % rise in the spot price of gold (to US$ 1,325 per troy ounce), as did swings in the US dollar.1 Gold prices traded within the US$ 1,305 — 1,360 range throughout the period, reached 18 - month
highs in March and capped their third straight quarterly gain, a feat not seen since 2011.1 Haven demand was a key support as exchange - traded gold holdings of 2,269 metric tons (mt) neared a five - year
high.1 The Fed is widely expected to boost borrowing costs, and investors have been carefully watching the central bank's statements to see whether it
targets more rate increases in 2018 than previously projected.
On the whole, he added, without the Fed policies, the jobless rate would be
higher than the current 5 % and the
inflation rate would be even further below the Fed's 2 %
target.
This means that if a two percent
inflation target reflected a proper balance when it first came into vogue decades ago, a
higher target is probably appropriate today.
The policy implication is that had the Fed
targeted higher inflation in recent years, a lower real interest rate could have hastened the recovery.
On the short - side of the yield curve, the consensus seems to interpret the Federal Open Market Committee's recent use of the word «gradual» as an indication that it will allow
inflation to run
higher than 2 % in order to make up for the last 20 years of below -
target growth.
So it has to manage
inflation expectations verbally, while also backing away from its preferred
inflation targets and accepting
higher ones instead.
«Not only will they tolerate
higher inflation, not only will they wish for
higher inflation, but they actually may
target higher inflation,» El - Erian said.
All of the argument about appropriate
inflation targeting in recent years has focused not on whether 2 percent is too
high but on whether it is too low a
target.
stocks on Wednesday close lower, after initially edging slightly
higher, as the Federal Reserve acknowledged rising prices and said it now expects
inflation to «run near» its 2 %
target «over the medium term,» in its most recent policy statement.
In the United Kingdom, headline
inflation is close to 3 percent on an annual basis,
higher than the central bank's projected
target of 2 to 2.5 percent; and in the United States, consumer
inflation remained above the central bank's 2 - percent
target until May of this year before slipping modestly.
It also said
inflation is moving
higher, close to its
target.
As Chart 2 shows, policy rates in Canada have on average been only 0.25 %
higher than the US (using quarterly observations) since the introduction of
inflation targeting from the Bank of Canada in 1992.
He makes the now familiar point that if negative real rates are sometimes desirable on counter cyclical grounds there is a strong argument for an
inflation target high enough that the ZLB does not bind or binds only very infrequently.
With producer prices pushing
higher, overall
inflation is expected to steadily move toward the Fed's 2 %
target.
(iii) If a two percent
inflation target was appropriate when the neutral real rate was thought to be two percent and stable, surely a
higher target is appropriate when the neutral real rate is zero and unstable.
Inflation, which had been stubbornly
high, fell back into the bank's
target range of two per cent.
While not exactly hitting the Federal Reserve's revered 2.0 % annual
inflation target, it was apparently close enough to create more jitters in the bond market, with the yield on the U.S. Treasury's benchmark 10 - year note immediately climbing seven basis points to 2.91 %, its
highest level in more than four years.
This is contributing to a continuation of
inflation rates that are below
target in most advanced economies, although in headline terms they are mostly
higher than a year ago.
Inflation is running
high and above
target in a number of emerging markets.
Easy money policies abroad push the dollar
higher, hurting U.S. exporters and making it harder for the Fed to get
inflation back up to its 2 percent
target.
Longer - run
inflation expectations are lower than they were a year ago, but seem to have stabilised more recently, and they remain
higher than the mid-point of the Bank's
target.
The pull back in prices since January relates to
higher interest rates as
inflation is now running ahead of the 2 %
target set by the Fed.
With
inflation at multi-year
highs and way beyond the central bank's
target of 2 percent, and wage growth not rising quickly enough, monetary - policy members were expected to look to balance growth and
inflation when they met in November.
Inflation has continued to rise above the government's
target and is now at its
highest level for nine months.
But he insisted the economy was on course to meet its
inflation target of two per cent, house prices were stabilising, employment was
high and interest rates were also stable.
It is a multi-asset fund but it is largely unconstrained: it
targets US and international income - producing securities including common stock,
high - yield and investment grade debt, preferred shares and convertibles, and a variety of hedges including gold, precious metals, currency forward contracts, and
inflation - linked vehicles.