Not exact matches
By secular reflation, we mean at least a decade in which short - and long - term interest
rates stay habitually below
nominal GDP
growth and
high grade bonds are not really bonds any more: delivering trend returns that are close to zero or even negative.
Finally, in a
nominal GDP targeting regime, a decline in r - star caused by slower trend
growth automatically leads to a
higher rate of trend inflation, providing a larger buffer to respond to economic downturns.
Because
nominal wage
growth for a large fraction of workers has been held to zero, a somewhat
higher rate of inflation would grease the wheels of the labor market by allowing real wages to fall (Akerlof, Dickens, and Perry 1996).
While stocks have a terminal value beyond a 10 - year period, the effects of interest
rates and
nominal growth on those projections largely cancel out because
higher nominal GDP
growth over a given 10 - year horizon is correlated with both
higher interest
rates and generally lower market valuations at the end of that period.
As Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda put it: «With the level of
nominal interest
rates being
high, Japan's economy will have more policy room to mitigate the impact of future economic downturns, or will be equipped with a sort of insurance for sustained economic
growth.»
It is more accurate to argue that following poor 10 - year returns, provided that valuations are depressed based on normalized earnings and the economy is likely to grow at double digits
rates of
nominal growth - investors can probably anticipate
higher subsequent long - term returns.