Therefore, the overall irradiance increases in correspondence with
higher numbers of sunspots.
They are a common measure of solar activity —
the higher the number of sunspots, the higher the probability of a major storm that could wreak havoc on Earth (see Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe).
While solar output typically goes through 11 - year cycles with
high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak, we are currently approaching the peak of «Cycle - 24» with numbers running at less than half of those observed during other 20th century peaks.
Not exact matches
The extraordinary cold spell was probably strengthened and lengthened by the resulting increase in sea ice at
high latitudes, as well as an unusually low
number of sunspots in the middle
of the 7th century.
... It is worthy
of note that the
highest coefficients at a 29 - month lag were found in the relationships both between SSN [
sunspot number] and PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation], and SSN and CP El Niño with statistical significance at the 99 % confidence level, respectively.
During around 90 %
of the entire period between the start
of the CRF count (1951) to now, the CRF has been
higher than 3600 (x100) per hour [if one looks at the climax CRF /
sunspot number plot on the page I urled and compares this with the data in the downloadable datasets on that page one can work out that a CRF count
of 3600 (x100) per hour corresponds to around the 83 % level].
«It could therefore be concluded that both the decreasing correlation between
sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, and the deviation
of the global temperature temperature long - term trend from solar activity as expressed by the
sunspot index are due to the increased
number of high speed streams
of solar wind on the decreasing phase and the minimum
of sunspot in the last decade.»
[Response: And note that the abstract linked says «Although the rarity
of the current episode
of high average
sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause
of the strong warming during the past three decades.»
The correlation between the two quantities is 0.85 with p < 0.01 for the whole period studied.It could therefore be concluded that both the decreasing correlation between
sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, and the deviation
of the global temperature long - term trend from solar activity as expressed by
sunspot index are due to the increased
number of high - speed streams
of solar wind on the declining phase and in the minimum
of sunspot cycle in the last decades.»
The 68 - years from 1936 to 2003 defined the Modern Maximum, when the average annual
sunspot number (GSN) was 73.5, 22.7
higher, or 44.7 %
higher, than the prior 187 - year average
of 50.8.
Klapper, others - Note that there is some ambiguity about the
sunspot numbers - according to Svalgaard 2012, due to changes in counting methods the
sunspot numbers pre-1875 are low by a factor
of 50 %, and the
numbers from 1940 onward are
high by a factor
of 20 %.
If the increasing
number of sunspots would bring the Arctic index into «a positive phase» as well, then temperature isolation
of the
High North would in the winters months improve compared to recent years [which brought temperature records over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean — and a smallest ice extent last winter], perhaps allowing for some extra sea ice recovery.
However, Solanki et al made the same point as we do: «This comparison shows without requiring any recourse to modeling that since roughly 1970 the solar influence on climate (through the channels considered here) can not have been dominant» (Solanki et al., 2003), and: «Although the rarity
of the current episode
of high average
sunspot numbers may indicate that the Sun has contributed to the unusual climate change during the twentieth century, we point out that solar variability is unlikely to have been the dominant cause
of the strong warming during the past three decades.»
The Sun's total energy output varies on multiple cycles and is related to the
number of sunspots, with slightly
higher temperatures when there are more
sunspots, and vice versa.
«Arrival
of high speed streams at Earth is found to be preceded by a decrease in total solar irradiance and an increase in
sunspot number and Mg II emissions.»
In 1862 Rudolf Wolf, after completing the first continuous record
of sunspot numbers, «concluded from the
sunspot observations available at that time that
high and low maxima did not follow one another at random: a succession
of two or three strong maxima seemed to alternate with a succession
of two or three weak maxima».
Quite evident in the most recent several hundred years
of the isotopic records is a seventy - year period
of very low solar activity in the 17th and early 18th centuries — known as the Maunder Minimum — and following it, an unsteady, long - term rise to the present - day era
of high sunspot numbers, called the Modern Maximum (Fig. 2 c, d).
While a river and a lake or two
of each makes for a nice fit, but a true correlation, if there is one, ought to be between
high altitude precipitation and
sunspot numbers, the rivers and lakes be damned?
Sunspot Activity When the
number of sunspots is
high, the Sun emits
higher amounts
of solar radiation.
(re) established in this blog we have: — there is an Atlantic oscillation, which might produce a 30 year long rising surface temperature trend — the
sunspot number had some (positive) correlation with the climate in the past and is unusual
high for the last 50 years — there might be uncertainties in the temperature measurements (UHI for example)-- specially for Tony: around 1880 it was cold most likely because
of the sun!
The
sunspot numbers (which serve as an example only, the sun effect is for experts to discuss) are pretty
high in the 2nd half
of the 20th century, if that has any indcation for the temperature (wheat prices!)
During periods
of high solar activity (last several cycles had anomalously large
sunspot numbers), the solar wind deflects more
of these
high - energy cosmic rays away from Earth, thereby reducing nucleation / cloud cover and increasing albedo.