If we are moving to
a higher volatility regime, investors should expect some multiple compression.
We expect spreads to trade sideways to wider on renewed uncertainty, amid a new
higher volatility regime.
But I can say with a very high degree of confidence that we have now departed the low volatility regime and entered
a high volatility regime.
Low volatility regimes lead to excessive risk taking and crowded positioning which leads to instability and
high volatility regimes and on and on.
Not exact matches
Our research suggests that breaks to a
high -
volatility regime rarely occur without the economic expansion coming to an end.
, San - Lin Chung, Chi - Hsiou Hung and Chung - Ying Yeh examine the predictive power of investor sentiment for different kinds of stocks during bull (low -
volatility, expansion) and bear (
high -
volatility, recession) equity market
regimes.
I highlighted the prospects of a change in market
regime from one of ultra low
volatility to a period of
higher volatility.
Is the inclusion of 100 - day Historical
Volatility (ranking from high to low) the volatility of the overall market regime or the stocks you are selecting
Volatility (ranking from
high to low) the
volatility of the overall market regime or the stocks you are selecting
volatility of the overall market
regime or the stocks you are selecting, or both?
Periodic outbreaks of
higher volatility can happen even within low -
volatility market
regimes.
We've made the argument previously that
volatility tends to trade in «
regimes» of low - vol, mid-vol, and
high vol.