A: The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) announced this week that the sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached its maximum extent — its widest halo around the continent — in 2014 on 22 September: more than 20 million square kilometers, which also set a record for
the highest extent of sea ice around the continent since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s.
Not exact matches
The record follows a trend over the past three years
of anomalously
high winter
ice extents, providing a stark contrast to the inexorable decline
of Arctic
sea ice
This year's record low happened just two years after several monthly record
high sea ice extents in Antarctica and decades
of moderate
sea ice growth.
Note, the low Arctic
sea -
ice extent over the last summers are independent evidence
of high Arctic temperatures.
September is the month that usually sees the
highest extent of Antarctic
sea ice as the Southern Hemisphere winter ends, and Arctic
ice reaches its all - time low as it says goodbye to the dog days
of summer.
We emphasize that because
of the significant influence
of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that
high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing
high - resolution (in space and time)
sea -
ice extent for past climate - change events.
Antarctic
sea ice extent increased rapidly through June and early July, and reached new daily record
highs through most
of this year.
Arctic
sea ice extent continued a rapid retreat through the first two weeks
of July as a
high pressure cell moved over the central Arctic Ocean, bringing
higher temperatures.
Note, the low Arctic
sea -
ice extent over the last summers are independent evidence
of high Arctic temperatures.
The
high anomalies up in the Arctic continue for a third month in GISTEMP and the question
of the maximum Arctic
Sea Ice Extent is surely now only by how much this freeze season will be below the record low set in 2017.
We emphasize that because
of the significant influence
of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that
high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing
high - resolution (in space and time)
sea -
ice extent for past climate - change events.
A smaller
ice sheet
extent might still respond with the observed
high rate
of sea level rise (5 m per century) if the warming is much more rapid than when
ice sheets were more extensive.
You complain that there was no mention
of Arctic
Sea Ice Extent in the Guardian article reporting exceptional warm temperatures up in the
high Arctic yet I contrasted that report
of exceptional warmth with JAXA Arctic SIE values
of recent days.
Just to return to one
of the suggested topics, Arctic
sea ice extent appears to have passed its minimum for this year with a value
higher than has recently been the case.
In my briefings to the Association
of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations
of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the
extent of climate change, showing that the sensitivity
of temperature and
sea level to CO2 clearly shown by the past climate record in coral reefs,
ice cores, and deep
sea sediments is orders
of magnitude
higher than IPCC's models.
Yesterday the Arctic
sea ice extent reached 6433281 sq km and achieved the
highest seven day recovery rate
of the last eleven years.
Based solely on how
high the A.O. has been this winter, I would expect
higher sea -
ice extents, or less retreat across most
of the Arctic
seas.
The graph below (
high - resolution copy) shows the range
of the forecasts for early September, the point when the
sea ice typically reaches its minimum
extent, compared to recent years and the average over the period
of precise satellite measurement.
This is 0.7 percent
higher than the previous record
high extent of 7.51 million square miles that occurred in 2012 and 8.6 percent
higher than the record low maximum
sea ice extent of 6.96 million square miles that occurred in 1986.
-- Antarctic
sea ice extent reached record
high for second year in a row; South Pole station set record
high temperature: The Antarctic maximum
sea ice extent reached a record
high of 7.56 million square miles on October 1.
``... Figure 2 indicates that on a daily basis,
sea ice extent appears slightly
higher than 2007 for most
of the month.
One popular denier claim is that Arctic
sea ice extent is
higher in recent years than it was in 1989, therefore claims
of it melting away are false.
And meanwhile down south exactly the same thing happened as in the far north, although [due to the reversed situation
of a central continent and surrounding
seas — instead
of a central ocean, surrounded by land masses] with exactly the opposite effect: the Antarctic
sea ice reached its
highest ever
extent during the Southern Hemisphere winter.
Global mean temperatures in 2011 did not reach the record - setting levels
of 2010, but were still the
highest observed in a La Niña year, and Arctic
sea -
ice extent fell to near - record - low levels.
Whether it's a killer winter in South America, increased snow cover globally, record Arctic
sea ice recovery, recovering glaciers in the Alps, record
high sea ice extent in Antarctica, extreme cold in southeast Europe, or 5 consecutive colder than normal European winters, just to name a few, the ominous signs
of global cooling are compounding rapidly.
The NOAA report dedicates a specific section
of the report to discussing Antarctic
sea ice extent, which has seen records
of high extent broken for three years in a row.
While Greenland was setting records linked to melting, another was being set around the chilly mass
of Antarctica, which saw a new
highest daily
sea ice extent.
Stroeve says a couple
of powerful cyclones that churned around the
high Arctic last month moved
sea ice around and complicated efforts to measure its
extent.
In 2012, Arctic
sea ice hit its lowest point since satellite monitoring began in 1979, with recent ebb and flow in
ice extent now known to be the result
of giant storms, ocean currents and
high pressure days.
The remaining estimates fall into «
high» and «low»
extent groupings: the low
extent group with a range
of 4.2 to 4.7 million square kilometers, representing a continued loss
of sea ice extent compared to 2008/2009, and the
high extent group
of 5.4 to 5.7 million square kilometers, suggesting a return to the long - term trend for summer
sea ice loss.
It could even go as low as 50 % FIRST the synchronized lunar and planet cycles will both be descending down to the driest part
of their cycles in 2019/20 (this only occurs once every 297 years in Australia) SECOND Antarctic
sea ice extent has been trending up to now be at record
high levels for the last 34 years.
Thus, when
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
sea ice is retreating or advancing at a high rate over the course of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
ice is retreating or advancing at a
high rate over the course
of the month, as was the case for December 2016, the
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Sea Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger extent than from simply averaging daily extent valu
Ice Index monthly average can yield a larger
extent than from simply averaging daily
extent values.
While the ensemble forecast indicates an absence
of significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over the western Arctic,
high pressure features over the Barents
sea appear to be conducive to greater
ice extent reductions along the Eurasian side.
Given the preconditioned
ice cover, and short - term forecast for increased
high pressure in the Arctic, it is still likely that the 2013 fall
sea ice extent will achieve values comparable to those
of 2007.
Now if you are wondering about Arctic
Sea Ice and doubt anecdotal evidence, you could look at Greenland Snow Accumulation as a proxy of sea ice extent and find that around 1940 there was higher than normal accumulation, but not quite as high as 2012 or circa 17
Sea Ice and doubt anecdotal evidence, you could look at Greenland Snow Accumulation as a proxy of sea ice extent and find that around 1940 there was higher than normal accumulation, but not quite as high as 2012 or circa 17
Ice and doubt anecdotal evidence, you could look at Greenland Snow Accumulation as a proxy
of sea ice extent and find that around 1940 there was higher than normal accumulation, but not quite as high as 2012 or circa 17
sea ice extent and find that around 1940 there was higher than normal accumulation, but not quite as high as 2012 or circa 17
ice extent and find that around 1940 there was
higher than normal accumulation, but not quite as
high as 2012 or circa 1750.
If the increasing number
of sunspots would bring the Arctic index into «a positive phase» as well, then temperature isolation
of the
High North would in the winters months improve compared to recent years [which brought temperature records over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean — and a smallest
ice extent last winter], perhaps allowing for some extra
sea ice recovery.
But looking at the May 2016 melt pond fraction in our
sea ice simulation, the pond fraction is higher in the Kara Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a lesser extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Bas
sea ice simulation, the pond fraction is
higher in the Kara
Sea, north of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a lesser extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian Sea and the Arctic Bas
Sea, north
of Svalbard and in the Fram Strait compared to May 2015 and with a lesser
extent to May 2012, but lower in the East Siberian
Sea and the Arctic Bas
Sea and the Arctic Basin.
To a large
extent the probability forecasts in Figure 11 resemble the surface air temperature anomaly
of the last two months in Figure 7 in the
high latitudes, illustrating the persistence
of weak climate anomalies over the
sea ice and ocean covered regions throughout the summer months.
And, as you know, the year 1979 was one
of the top 3 coldest and
highest sea ice extent years in the Arctic.
Behavior
of the
sea ice over the past winter and the spring and the large positive temperature anomalies in the Arctic (as
high as 20 degrees C over large regions in the past winter) suggest that an
extent near that
of the 2012 minimum may occur again if there is large export
of sea ice out to the Atlantic Ocean via the Fram Strait.
At the other end
of the globe, the
extent of Antarctic
sea ice reached record -
high levels in September.
For example, chapter ten, «
Ice melts, sea level rises,» discusses the disappearance of tropical mountain glaciers, estimates of sea level rise in the present century, estimates of its costs — the EPA estimated in 1991 that a one - meter rise would cost the US alone between $ 270 billion and $ 475 billion — evidence of past oceanic high - water marks and glacial extents, the dynamics of ice sheet disintegration, the thermal expansion of seawater, icequakes and meltponds, ice mass loss and gain in Greenland and Antarctica, the ozone hole, and the existence and significance of «marine ice sheets.&raq
Ice melts,
sea level rises,» discusses the disappearance
of tropical mountain glaciers, estimates
of sea level rise in the present century, estimates
of its costs — the EPA estimated in 1991 that a one - meter rise would cost the US alone between $ 270 billion and $ 475 billion — evidence
of past oceanic
high - water marks and glacial
extents, the dynamics
of ice sheet disintegration, the thermal expansion of seawater, icequakes and meltponds, ice mass loss and gain in Greenland and Antarctica, the ozone hole, and the existence and significance of «marine ice sheets.&raq
ice sheet disintegration, the thermal expansion
of seawater, icequakes and meltponds,
ice mass loss and gain in Greenland and Antarctica, the ozone hole, and the existence and significance of «marine ice sheets.&raq
ice mass loss and gain in Greenland and Antarctica, the ozone hole, and the existence and significance
of «marine
ice sheets.&raq
ice sheets.»
This is largely because melting
sea ice changes the albedo
of high latitude oceans, and to a lesser
extent because an inversion prevails at
high latitudes, especially in winter, whereas at low latitudes the heating is convectively mixed througout the troposphere.
Arctic summer
sea ice is in rapid decline [2nd lowest
extent on record after 2007, and perhaps more importantly, the lowest volume
of ice ever — this, along with the methane increase, could indicate a tipping element has been crossed that will kick climate change into a
higher gear]
CO2 minima were reached approximately when the
sea level was at a minimum, hence, the
extent of the continental
ice sheets were at a maximum, and the
highest CO2 levels were found during interglacials during the
high stands
of the
sea level.
The
extent of the
sea ice reached a record
high for the second year in a row,
of 7.56 million square miles on October 1 − 0.7 %
higher than the previous record
high of 7.51 million sq miles in 2012 and 8.6 %
higher than the record low maximum
of 6.96 million sq miles in 1986.
Further, global temperatures have remained
high, but steady, for 16 years now, yet Arctic
sea ice extents — almost none
of which is older than 4 years old, continues to be lower each year.
There is very
high confidence that CMIP5 models realistically simulate the annual cycle
of Arctic
sea -
ice extent, and there is
high confidence that they realistically simulate the trend in Arctic
sea -
ice extent over the past decades.
> «But just don't go and say «There is very
high confidence that climate models realistically simulate the annual cycle
of Arctic
sea ice extent».
I think that the statement you highlight — «There is very
high confidence that climate models realistically simulate the annual cycle
of Arctic
sea ice extent, and there is
high confidence that they realistically simulate the trend in Arctic
sea ice extent over the past decades» — is correct as stated.