Not exact matches
Possible reasons include increased
oceanic circulation leading to increased subduction of
heat into the ocean,
higher than normal levels of stratospheric aerosols due to volcanoes during the past decade, incorrect ozone levels used as input to the models, lower than expected solar output during the last few years, or poorly modeled cloud feedback effects.
I agree that the application of
higher resolution model equipment does not help to reduce the uncertainty range of the sea level in the Amsterdam harbours: assumptions about changes in the
heat storage, icecap melting and changes in the gravity field dominate this uncertainty range (although some regiona features related to
oceanic circulation and
heat redistribution may be better resolved in
higher resolution models).
The atmosphere is analogous to a flexible lens that is shaped by the density distribution of the gas molecules, of the atmosphere in the space between the sphere holding them, and space; Incoming
heat gets collected in many ways and places,, primarily by intermittent solar radiation gets stored, in vast quantities, and slowly but also a barrage of mass and energy fluxes from all directions; that are slowly transported great distances and to
higher altitudes mostly by
oceanic and atmospheric mass flows.
A good place to start in comprehending the
high variability of temperatures and sea ice in the Arctic is the recognition that, at those latitudes, the available
heat comes primarily from
oceanic and atmospheric advection, rather than local thermalization of insolation.
He notes that the
high end is driven by uncertainties in the
oceanic heat uptake data earlier in the record.
Thus as sea ice expands in a cooler climate, the
high - latitude
oceanic heat loss to the atmosphere is inhibited, the thermohaline circulation weakens, and the sinking regions move equatorward, leading to a shallower and weaker deep circulation.