Sentences with phrase «highest temperature projections»

Now, we, collectively, need to make decisions around the highest temperature projections.

The mean high temperature projections for 2050 and 2100 were derived from a suite of 28 climate models (CMIP5 / Oak Ridge National Laboratory) under IPCC emissions scenario RCP8.5, averaged over November 22 - 28 for 2030 - 2049 and 2080 - 2099, respectively.»

``... even if severe global warming is not certain it is worth preparing for the higher temperature projections.»

Not exact matches

The findings were not a total surprise, with future projections showing that even with moderate climate warming, air temperatures over the higher altitudes increase even more than at sea level, and that, on average, fewer winter storm systems will impact the state.

Under midrange projections for economic growth and technological change, the planet's average surface temperature in 2050 will be about two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than its preindustrial value.

Of particular interest to the researchers is a projection from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that future temperatures on the planet will rise faster at high altitudes than they will at sea level.

Borodina, A., Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. Emergent constraints in climate projections: a case study of changes in high - latitude temperature variability.

A recent analysis looked at historical damage to food crops from high temperatures during the growing season alongside projections of future warming.

In projecting climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity, there is generally a tradeoff between (a) the ability to produce high - resolution projections needed to inform local decisions and model local responses, and (b) the ability to sample uncertainty.

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Does this prediction and the confidence with which it is made «The quasi-regularity of some natural climate forcing mechanisms, combined with knowledge of human - made forcings, allows projection of near - term global temperature trends with reasonably high confidence», reflect the consensus of climate scientists, in your opinion?

When talking to the media, some have been tempted to push beyond what the science supports — focusing on the high end of projections of global temperatures in 2100 or highlighting the scarier scenarios for emissions of greenhouse gases.

«Future projections based on theory and high - resolution dynamical models consistently suggest that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms,» Knutson et al. (2010); Grinsted et al. (2013) projected «a twofold to sevenfold increase in the frequency of Katrina magnitude events for a 1 °C rise in global temperature.»

Interestingly, the recent ABARE AP6 reference emission scenario gives an upper temperature almost as high in 2030 (0.05 Â °C lower and it is largely based on IEA projections).

eg Water vapour feedback is not made up and then plugged into a model to make the temperature projections higher.

Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total precipitation in the south, to more than half in the north, with as much as two inches of water available in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82 Historical observations indicate declines in the frequency of high magnitude snowfall years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.

With climate projections showing a trend to higher average and higher extreme temperatures across the West, it's likely that any drought will be more severe than it would have been without manmade warming, the study — along with others — warns.

For corn, small long - term average temperature increases will shorten the duration of reproductive development, leading to yield declines, 4 even when offset by carbon dioxide (CO2) stimulation.5, 6 For soybeans, yields have a two in three chance of increasing early in this century due to CO2 fertilization, but these increases are projected to be offset later in the century by higher temperature stress7 (see Figure 18.2 for projections of increases in the frost - free season length and the number of summer days with temperatures over 95 °F).

Model projections for precipitation changes are less certain than those for temperature.12, 2 Under a higher emissions scenario (A2), global climate models (GCMs) project average winter and spring precipitation by late this century (2071 - 2099) to increase 10 % to 20 % relative to 1971 - 2000, while changes in summer and fall are not expected to be larger than natural variations.

Like all models, it has its quirks — an absolute surface temperature that's a bit too low, projections of ocean heat uptake that are a bit too high.

For regional climate predictability, the added value of RCMs should come from better resolving the relationship between mean (temperature) trends and key indicators that are supposedly better represented in the high resolution projections utilizing additional local information, such as temperature or precipitation extremes.

Further, it is pointed out that the enhancement of carbon sinks is already included in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agreements, and, moreover, that IPCC projections rely on unspecified negative emissions (often inappropriately assumed to be implausibly large deployments of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS)-RRB- to prevent high probabilities of temperature rises exceeding 2oC.

For example, the higher - end projections of warming indicate that before the end of the 21st Century, parts of the world would experience temperatures that exceed physiological limits during periods of the year, making it impossible to work or carry out other physical activity outside.

The simulations were shown to reproduce the observed strong reduction in past crop yields induced by high temperatures, thereby confirming that they capture one main mechanism for future projections.

Figure 22.5: Projections for average annual ground temperature at a depth of 3.3 feet over time if emissions of heat - trapping gases continue to grow (higher emissions scenario, A2), and if they are substantially reduced (lower emissions scenario, B1).

Arctic ice melt is accelerating even faster than the most recent projections — temperatures over the past six years are the highest since measurements began in 1880.

In other words, the reason Hansen's global temperature projections were too high was primarily because his climate model had a climate sensitivity that was too high.

When I see someone claiming that the IPCC temperature projections, in ALL scenarios, estimated higher actual temperatures than we see today on actual record I don't feel like telling them it's irrelevant is a strong argument.

If these results continue to be supported, then future projections of temperature change, as depicted in the present suite of climate models, are likely too high.

Figure 3: Global mean temperature measurements (black) and projections based on an IPCC scenario with high emissions (A2) for a climate sensitivity parameter of 5 °C (upper red) and 2 °C (upper blue).

4) the end results on the bottom of the first table (on maximum temperatures), clearly showed a drop in the speed of warming that started around 38 years ago, and continued to drop every other period I looked / /... 5) I did a linear fit, on those 4 results for the drop in the speed of global maximum temps, versus time, ended up with y = 0.0018 x -0.0314, with r2 = 0.96 At that stage I was sure to know that I had hooked a fish: I was at least 95 % sure (max) temperatures were falling 6) On same maxima data, a polynomial fit, of 2nd order, i.e. parabolic, gave me y = -0.000049 × 2 + 0.004267 x — 0.056745 r2 = 0.995 That is very high, showing a natural relationship, like the trajectory of somebody throwing a ball... 7) projection on the above parabolic fit backward, (10 years?)

Despite higher temperature change projections in this assessment, the sea level projections are slightly lower, primarily due to the use of improved models which give a smaller contribution from glaciers and ice sheets.

A 3ºC change by 2100 — which is not the high end projection — puts the planet in a temperature range not seen since the Pliocene some 3 million years ago.

To make the IPCC projections of the evolution of the earth's average temperature better reflect the latest scientific estimates of the climate sensitivity, it is necessary to adjust them downward by about 30 % at the low end, about 50 % at the high end, and about 40 % in the middle.

At this point, the projections of climate change, assuming we continue business as usual, cluster around an estimate that average temperatures will be about 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher in 2100 than they were in 2000.

The median changes in temperature and precipitation for December, January and February (DJF) and June, July and August (JJA), averaged over the period 2070 — 2099, were calculated from the high - end and non-high-end projections together with the maximum range from each group of models.

Also, the confidence in projections is higher for some variables (e.g. temperature) than for others (e.g. precipitation), and it is higher for larger spatial scales and longer time averaging periods.

The assumption (and that is all it is) that «The only real impact it would have is to limit the growth of our standard of living» is not justified, and allmost certainly false if high end projections of temperature increase by the end of this century are realized (or if high end projections of economic impacts are realized with central estimates of temperature increase).

Confidence in regional projections is higher than in the TAR for most regions for temperature and for some regions for precipitation.

He and other scientists testifying before the Senate panel today said that projections of the climate change that is now apparently occurring mean that the Southeastern and Midwestern sections of the United States will be subject to frequent episodes of very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond.