Contrarian bettors should target
these highly bet games and wager on teams getting little public support.
We've found that conference games tend to receive more bets than non-conference games and, as stated earlier, betting against the public is far more profitable in
highly bet games.
Even when we filter the results to focus on
highly bet games (getting 1.5 times the average number of bets for the day) the results still do not improve; the 30 % level produces a 19 - 21 ATS record, and the 50 % level produces a 30 - 47 ATS record.
Although this strategy still loses money due to the juice / vig charged by sportsbooks, it highlights the importance of focusing on
highly bet games when fading the public.
Again, this is the most
highly bet game of the day and the following table shows the breakdown of spread betting percentages from our six contributing sportsbooks:
Westgate needed South Florida to cover vs. FSU in
a highly bet game, while The Greek was actually seeing sharp money on USF.
In this week's most
highly bet game, the New England Patriots will travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face off against the new look Buffalo Bills.
Add in the fact that this will be
a highly bet game at night and there could be some great contrarian value on Baylor at home.
Not exact matches
This
game fits a number of historically profitable
betting systems, including our
highly touted 80/20
betting rule.
In the past, we've shown that success in
betting against the public is
highly tied to the number of
bets placed on each
game.
In addition to these sharp money indicators, we also have a
highly profitable
Bet Labs system triggered on this
game.
Finals are usually tightly - contested,
highly -
bet games where the public likes to pick a side to win.
You can't simply fade the public
betting percentages in every single
game and expect to be profitable — you'll want to isolate the most
highly -
bet games and fade the public in those, which was very successful last week and historically.
The three most
highly -
bet NCAAB
games tonight are all solid conference matchups with small spreads.
With all that said, this may be a nice opportunity to fade the public in a
highly bet night
game, and take FSU +3.
That's excellent news for contrarian bettors, since it's been
highly lucrative to
bet against teams who won their previous
game by at least 7 - points.
launched a small,
highly successful hotel and casino, aimed at locals, onthe northern outskirts of Las Vegas; he would cash out in 2000 in order tobuild the 703 - room Palms, which the family opened a year later (and which doesnot take
bets on NBA
games).
Finals are usually tightly - contested,
highly -
bet games where the public likes to pick a side to win but 3 of the last 5 finals have gone to extra time.
Although
betting against the public hasn't been a profitable strategy in day
games, it's been
highly lucrative in night
games.
In the last five years, if you
bet against the public (teams getting less than 50 % of spread
bets) in
highly wagered
games featuring a top 25 team you would have gone 49 - 36 (57.6 %) ATS.
«In any
game where returns are
highly volatile, and there is a reasonable expectation that skill plays a role, delusions of expertise may come into play,» comments Browne, who adds, «In horse
betting in particular, it appears that a gambler may easily be misled into believing that an effective winning strategy had been identified, when in fact it was due to chance alone.»
Good news: Few things are more reliable in the Oscar
game than
betting on the fact that a lot of the
highly - touted end - of - the - year releases will disappoint.
If you're looking for a soothing and
highly approachable puzzle
game with a lot of content on offer, then Bejeweled 3 is a safe
bet, it's one of the greats.
If you're looking for a soothing and
highly approachable puzzle
game with a lot of content on offer, then Bejeweled 3 is a safe
bet, it's one of the greats.
Obviously I can't read the developers» minds, but I
highly doubt they really had Occupy Wall Street and subtexts of greed in mind while they made the
game; I
bet they just wanted a gimmick to make the
game stand out and this was the best they could come up with.