Jim Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, says there is no need for the Fed to
hike rates any more this year because inflation is still low, further Fed rate hikes could cause the currently flat yield curve to invert, and inflation expectations are still low and stable.
That is, the Fed might
hike rates more than three times in 2018 or it might
hike rates more rapidly than expected if tax cuts prove to be more stimulative than expected.
However, we expect it to recover, with the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to
hike rates more than markets anticipate as the economy continues to pick up steam.
However, we also recognize that some market participants could be caught out if the Fed uses good economic data to
hike rates more than futures markets are predicting.
The new chair signaled the central bank could
hike rates more than three times this year in an effort to keep the economy from overheating, sparking anxiety among equity traders.
That's exactly what sparked the stock market correction last month: a higher - than - expected average hourly earnings number in January's jobs report ignited fears that inflation might finally be coming to life, and in response the Federal Reserve may look to
hike rates more aggressively than the three projected increases for this year.
Not exact matches
The recent rise in oil prices fueled expectations the Federal Reserve could flag
more interest
rate hikes at its policy meeting this week.
LONDON, May 1 (Reuters)- The dollar broke into positive territory for the year and bond yields were creeping higher again on Tuesday, as the recent rise in oil prices fuelled bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will flag
more interest
rate hikes this week.
Helped also by higher interest
rate levels after three
rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the core lending business
more than offset a weaker quarter for its market division.
The Fed maintained its forecast for two
more rate hikes this year, following speculation on whether budding inflation would push it toward raising its outlook to three
more increases.
For 2019, the median is for two
hikes, but most of the risk looks to be with
more rates rises.
«Strong economic momentum and accelerating price and wage gains should lead to three
more Fed
rate hikes this year,» Kathy Bostjancic, head of U.S. macro investor services at Oxford Economics USA, wrote in response to the survey.
NEW YORK, May 1 - The dollar broke into positive territory for the year and U.S. bond yields inched higher again on Tuesday as the recent rise in oil prices fueled expectations the Federal Reserve could flag
more interest
rate hikes at its policy meeting this week.
The Federal Reserve is expected to give the signal for
more rate hikes later this year.
Should MBS want to have an economic recovery and at the same time
hike rates, «then he is going to have to spend
more from the public purse,» Chevenix said.
The Bank of Canada
hiked rates twice this year, signalling
more could be coming — depending, in part, on whether households can handle it.
But others were reassured the Fed was not ramping up market expectations for
more rate hikes.
If the Bank of Canada
hikes two
more times this year, some households could be renewing at a
rate 75 basis points higher than what they previously paid, according to Rob McLister, CEO of intelliMortgage Inc. in Toronto.
The Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hit record highs this week as investors put the congressional testimony of former FBI Director James Comey and Attorney General Jeff Sessions on the back burner and await what could be the fourth
rate hike in
more than a decade on Wednesday.
Investors are getting
more comfortable with the idea of four interest
rate hikes this year, though it may not last long.
But some traders had expected the Fed to clearly signalwhether it will pull the trigger on two or three
more rate hikes this year.
More tightening down south would exacerbate that trend, unless Canada keeps pace on
rate hikes, which is unlikely.
With the Fed likely to signal
more rate hikes, Sit Investment Associates» Bryce Doty foresees bumps ahead for bonds.
About 46 percent of respondents to the survey see two
more Fed
rate hikes in 2018 and the same percentage see three.
That's because investors had expected the Fed to signal a
more hawkish outlook, such as an announcement about further
rate hikes next year.
«As QE (quantitative easing) moves towards the end, markets focus
more on
rate hikes,» Ricardo Garcia, chief euro zone economist at UBS, said when asked why the euro is set to appreciate over the coming months.
Sterling dropped
more than 1 percent against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England announced the first
rate hike since the financial crisis.
Some investors had anticipated the Fed would also take a
more hawkish tone on future
rate hikes on expectations of stronger growth.
Citi analysts predict two
rate hikes this year (including Wednesday's
hike) but no
more until the second half of next year.
«The fact that they stuck with the three
rate -
hike forecast sends a signal that at this point they're not ready to adopt a potentially
more aggressive stance that a number of people have been talking about for next year,» said Craig Bishop, lead strategist for U.S. fixed income at RBC Wealth Management.
More specifically, the «Mad Money» host wants to see if Williams, a non-voting Federal Open Market Committee member who previously talked about having three interest
rate hikes this year, will change his view and advocate for four
hikes.
Then again, the
more the market falls on the fear of an interest
rate hike, the less likely it becomes that the Fed will pull the trigger on it in the near future, which will then push prices back up.
The Fed raised interest
rates last December for the first time in nearly a decade, and at that time projected four
more hikes in 2016.
The Federal Open Markets Committee will release the minutes from its Sept. 16 - 17 meeting, providing
more insight into the deliberations that went into putting off the interest
rate hike.
Worries about the Federal Reserve
hiking interest
rates more aggressively to combat rising inflation should not overshadow the benefits of stronger economic growth, the billionaire co-founder of Blackstone Group told CNBC on Thursday.
Asked about
rate hikes in 2018, the Fed Chair signaled that the option for
more than three increases remains open.
Rosengren, an historically dovish Fed policymaker who has become
more confident about
hiking rates this year, cited Britain's vote to leave the European Union as an example of U.S. resistance to shocks from abroad.
«I expect both days will be riveting... and I'm hoping she'll stay on message:
more rate hikes needed in a gradual attempt to get us back to normal.
And if tomorrow's job report shows no signs of real wage growth (which is what economists predict it won't), the Fed's case for a
rate hike will start to look
more faith - based than empirically driven.
The Bank didn't give its own view on how many
more rate hikes it intends, but financial markets are implying only two
more hikes between now and 2020.
With respect to interest
rates, we continue to see a bifurcation for U.S.
rates where shorter - dated yields move higher in response to possibly two or three
more Fed
rate hikes, while the U.S. Treasury 10 - year yield trades in a 2.25 percent to 2.75 percent range, with a temporary move toward 2 percent possible if geopolitical risks become realities.
The 2.9 % rise in December average hourly earnings «might put a little bit
more pressure on the Fed to accelerate the path [of interest
rate hikes], but I really don't think it's going to be that significant a push,» said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America.
In his job as an activist at the Center for Popular Democracy, Barkan led a successful effort to get Fed officials thinking
more about low - income Americans as they conduct monetary policy, often arguing against interest
rate hikes in the face of high underemployment and weak wage growth.
The bank also reiterated that
more interest
rate hikes will likely be necessary over time, but that the governing council will remain cautious when considering future decisions.
And although interest
rate hikes make borrowing
more expensive, they might also make banks
more interested in lending to small companies.
Markets anticipate at least two
more interest
rate hikes this year after an increase in March, according to CME Group fed funds futures.
A seemingly inevitable interest
rate hike in the second half of 2010 means even
more bumps in the road.
Pretty soon, we will be back to debating when «good» economic news is «bad» for the markets because it increases the chances the Fed will suddenly get
more aggressive on
rate hikes.
More from Balancing Priorities: What a
rate hike means for your credit card What to do with your bond portfolio as Fed
rates rise Credit scores are set to rise
Economic growth well above expectations could be an issue for stocks because it increases the chances the Fed will suddenly get
more aggressive on
rate hikes.