Consequently,
the historical equity premium was approximately 5 % per annum.
Focuses in its concluding chapters on
the historical equity premium and on an estimate for and implications of the future equity premium.
Not exact matches
The current number of shares remaining available for grant under the 2003 Plan is expected to last until approximately the end of 2014, based on the recent
historical rate of award grants under the 2003 Plan noted under «Specific Benefits» below, and taking into account the 2:1
premium share counting rule, discussed below, for certain
equity awards.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below
historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify»
equity valuations about 4 % above
historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock returns.
Estimates of the future
equity risk
premium should start with
historical results and then adjust for expected shifts in stock market variability and non-repeatability of unusual past cash flows.
... formal asset valuation models (extrapolations of
historical return data) provide the most (least) predictive estimates of the future
equity risk
premium.
For each strategy, he runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of a 40 - year retirement based on
historical annual distributions of 10 - year bond yield,
equity premium, home appreciation, short - term interest rate and inflation rate.
Below is a chart of the
historical S&P GSCI Energy TR index levels versus the
equity risk
premium as measured by the S&P 500 Energy Total Return monthly minus the S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index Total Return monthly.
First, the
historical equity risk
premium was high and decades could pass before a big - enough crash, making it very costly to sit in cash.
We allow that short - term interest rates may be pegged well below
historical norms for several more years, and we know that for every year that short - term interest rates are held at zero (rather than a historically normal level of 4 %), one can «justify»
equity valuations about 4 % above
historical norms — a
premium that removes that same 4 % from prospective future stock returns.
In
historical oil bottoms, the energy
equity risk
premium, that measures the difference between the S&P 500 Energy Sector and the S&P 500 Energy Corporate Bond Index, has switched from a discount to a
premium.