Sentences with phrase «historical hindcast»
This includes both historical hindcasts and projections to 2100.
https://www.pacificclimate.org/ Not exact matches
We calculate hindcasts from 1950 - using the selected model for each series, including historical oscillation indices and available winter SST data.
In Florida, unpublished historical surveys (S.J. Epperly personal communication) are consistent with our modeled hindcasts that suggest a population increase from the 1960s through the 1980s.
You say that the hindcasts are true hindcasts, and that parameters are not fit to match the historical trends.
«The use of a coupled ocean — atmosphere — sea ice model to hindcast (i.e., historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific.
David Stockwell found CSIRO's hindcast drought predictions were opposite historical rainfall reality.
Even if you have to invent the aerosol forcings to get your hindcast to look something like the historical record...
The sensitivity of the models is, as I think you are saying, constrained by it's parametrizations, which are bounded by observational data on TOA radiation data etc. (although not all very tightly constrained) but this is not what is being questioned about the models, rather the issue is whether the model hindcasts matching historical temperatures to some degree is evidence that they have correct physics, or is merely a result of modelers making the choices for inputs which will produce a reasonable result.
This sounds like someone was noodling around with residuals from a temporal comparison of GCM hindcasts and estimates of historical forcings, noticed a few inconsistencies, and then decided the real world had some splaining to do.
Furthermore, since the data are historical, the analysis here is essentially that of a hindcast, and it is debatable to what extent the data can be considered to provide truly independent validation of the models.
The models do not track the historical temps well if indeed the mwp was global, because they don't show it when used to hindcast.
My question is, are there paramaterizations in the climate models which can be tweaked so that model hindcasts can replicate historical climate change?
Since the data are historical, the analysis here is essentially that of a hindcast, and since some of these data may have been used during model construction and tuning, it is debatable to what extent they can be considered to provide validation of the models.