Drs Singer and Michaelides employ STORM to show that
the historical rainfall trends likely resulted in less runoff from this dryland basin, an effect they expect to have occurred at many similar basins in the region.
Snowfall varies across the region, comprising less than 10 % of total precipitation in the south, to more than half in the north, with as much as two inches of water available in the snowpack at the beginning of spring melt in the northern reaches of the river basins.81 When this amount of snowmelt is combined with heavy
rainfall, the resulting flooding can be widespread and catastrophic (see «Cedar Rapids: A Tale of Vulnerability and Response»).82
Historical observations indicate declines in the frequency of high magnitude snowfall years over much of the Midwest, 83 but an increase in lake effect snowfall.61 These divergent
trends and their inverse relationships with air temperatures make overall projections of regional impacts of the associated snowmelt extremely difficult.
Some analyses of long - term
historical weather data for the region show a drying
trend, and others no change in
rainfall at all (Hulme et al. 2001; Christensen et al. 2007; Funk et al. 2008; Williams and Funk 2011).