The historical sea surface temperature data needs expanding and cleaning up.
For future projections, GFDL atmospheric modelers have developed global models capable of simulating many aspects of the seasonal and year - to - year variability of tropical cyclone frequency in a number of basins, using only
historical sea surface temperatures as input.
The Karl study made changes to
historical sea surface temperature records, effectively doubling the warming trend of that period to 0.086 degrees Celsius per decade from 0.039 degrees per decade.
However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human - induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as
historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability.
I would classify a topic like «Uncertainty in
historical sea surface temperatures» as cutting edge requiring access to recently published primary scientific literature.
Not exact matches
Studies of
historical records in India suggest that reduced monsoon rainfall in central India has occurred when the
sea surface temperatures in specific regions of the Pacific Ocean were warmer than normal.
Smith, T.M. and R.W. Reynolds, 2005: A global merged land air and
sea surface temperature reconstruction based on
historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Clim., 18, 2021 - 2036.
Climatology data from the
historical record give a picture of the fluctuations in
sea -
surface temperature over the last 160 years.
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and
historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for
surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean
sea level, and
surface ocean acidification.
In contrast to
historical droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular pattern of change in
sea surface temperature but seems to be the result of an overall
surface warming driven by rising greenhouse gases.
Like almost all
historical climate data, ship - board
sea surface temperatures (SST) were not collected with long term climate trends in mind.
But this is in a period that the Bureau has predicted is likely, based on statistical analysis of
historical data and current
sea surface conditions, to be warmer than the
historical average (see here.
In summary, the
historical [
Sea Surface Temperature] record... may well contain instrumental bias effects that render the data of questionable value in determining long period trends in ocean surface temperatures... Investigators that use the data [to try this] bear a heavy, perhaps impossible, responsibility for ensuring that the potential instrument bias has not contaminated their r
Surface Temperature] record... may well contain instrumental bias effects that render the data of questionable value in determining long period trends in ocean
surface temperatures... Investigators that use the data [to try this] bear a heavy, perhaps impossible, responsibility for ensuring that the potential instrument bias has not contaminated their r
surface temperatures... Investigators that use the data [to try this] bear a heavy, perhaps impossible, responsibility for ensuring that the potential instrument bias has not contaminated their results.
Regional climate simulations, driven by two «well performing» dynamically downscaled IPCC models, also shows an amplification of
historical summer temperature and precipitation extremes is occurring in conjunction with the Pacific
sea surface temperature influence on US regional climate.
While consistent with the IPCC assessments of
historical warming, it lacks coverage of much of the fast - warming Arctic region and blends
surface air temperatures over land with slower - warming
sea surface temperatures over the ocean.
Carbon Brief produced a raw global temperature record using using unadjusted ICOADS
sea surface temperature measurements gridded by the UK Hadley Centre and raw land temperature measurements assembled by NOAA in version 4 of the Global
Historical Climatological Network (GHCN).
For a more general discussion of uncertainty in
historical SST measurements and data sets see: Kennedy, J.J. (2013) A review of uncertainty in in situ measurements and data sets of
sea -
surface temperature.
Finally, the estimates of biases and other uncertainties presented here should not be interpreted as providing a comprehensive estimate of uncertainty in
historical sea -
surface temperature measurements.
Uncertainties of estimated trends in global - and regional - average
sea -
surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of
historical sea -
surface temperatures.
«Below the
sea surface,
historical measurements of temperature are far sparser, and the warming is more gradual, about 0.01 °C per decade at 1,000 meters.»
The figure shows that the impact of the adjustment to remove the cold bias from bucket
sea surface temperature measurements warms the
historical data, decreasing the amount of global warming the data indicate.
The «POGA - H» model also uses
historical data for climate forcing, but constrains
sea surface temperature in the tropical eastern Pacific (the ENSO region) to follow their
historical values.
Historical records of
sea -
surface temperature (SST) are essential to our understanding of the earth's climate.
NCDC merges their Extended Reconstructed
Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST.v3b) with the Global Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN - M) version 3.2.0 for land surface air temper
Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST.v3b) with the Global
Historical Climatology Network - Monthly (GHCN - M) version 3.2.0 for land
surface air temper
surface air temperatures.
References: Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds (2005), A global merged land air and
sea surface temperature reconstruction based on
historical observations (1880 - 1997), J. Climate, 18, 2021 - 2036.
They first sorted the data into regional patterns, and then compared the temporal behavior of these patterns to common
historical climate indices — such as well - known patterns of atmospheric circulation,
sea surface temperatures, or even large - scale warming.
We had no «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature» indicator back in medieval times, so we have to rely on the information we can get from
historical records and paleoclimate studies.
These datasets include: NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of
Sea Surface Temperature - WHOI, Version 1.0 U.S. Monthly Extremes Global
Historical Climatology Network — Monthly (GHCN - M) Version 3 African Easterly Wave Climatology Version 1 NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Version 1.2 NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of Monthly Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), Version 2.2 - 1 Global
Surface Summary of the Day — GSOD Monthly Summaries of the Global
Historical Climatology Network — Daily (GHCN - D) I nternational
Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land
Surface Temperature Databank — Stage 1 Monthly International
Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land
Surface Temperature Databank — Stage 2 Monthly International
Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land
Surface Temperature Databank — Stage 3 Monthly International
Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) Global Land
Surface Temperature Databank — Stage 1 Daily... Continued
Although
historical records indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and
sea surface temperatures have undergone significant oscillations and have exceeded present - day levels in the past [3,4], it is the unprecedented rates of change that are fuelling concerns over whether organisms will retain the capacity to mediate vital ecosystem functions and services [5,6].
The anomaly map on the left is a product of a merged land
surface temperature (Global
Historical Climatology Network, GHCN) and
sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4) anomaly analysis as described in Huang et al. (2016).
GISS relies on data collected by other organizations, specifically, NOAA / NCEI's Global
Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) v3 adjusted monthly mean data as augmented by Antarctic data collated by UK Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) and also NOAA / NCEI's Extended Reconstructed
Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) v5 data.
However, only weak NAO trends are reproduced in climate simulations of the 20th Century, even with prescribed climate forcings and
historical sea -
surface conditions.