So if the stocks are considered fairly valued by
historical valuation metrics maybe you have decided a 50 % stock allocation is appropriate.
Although the 2015 market presents nothing quite so drastic, there are still companies trading at valuations far in excess of what is merited when you take a deep look at the growth projections, balance sheet, and
historical valuation metrics.
Not exact matches
As a result, we do not see equity
valuation metrics falling back to
historical averages.
While a number of simple measures of
valuation have also been useful over the years, even
metrics such as price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the
historical norm - reflecting the combination of booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins in cyclical and commodity - oriented industries.
In the presence of a broad range of reliable
valuation metrics uniformly at more than twice their
historical norms, coupled with the most severe overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising - yield syndrome we define, it is instructive how shorter - term action has evolved near those points.
One of the great anomalies of investing: The
historical long - term outperformance of certain smart beta or factor - based strategies relative to the broader equity market (think choosing stocks based on their
valuations, momentum, low volatility or quality
metrics such as profitability).
Doug Short presented a good
historical overview of
valuations last week using a variety of
metrics.
In that sense all analysis of stock market based on
historical metrics do nt make much sense since composition of stocks is entirely different in different era and as more capital efficient business model evolve and their time to market cycle shrinks stocks likely to command higher
valuations and suddenly lower
valuations during short period of time like already happening for many technology companies and as influence of technology on overall cost structure of companies increases (for example: robotics replace many of employees cost etc)
valuation matrix of most companies likely to get affected dynamically in short duration of time than in the past.
We do not see equity
valuation metrics falling back to
historical means in an environment where earnings are staging a sustained recovery and long - term rates are low.
As far as MMM goes, you can see exactly how the current
valuation (using a number of
metrics) stacks up against the recent
historical averages:
A number of basic
valuation metrics for the stock are well below their respective recent
historical averages, which has subsequently pushed the yield up to a very appealing 4.7 % +.
Brian Peery: Looking at U.S. equities, many
valuation metrics are, on average, currently above
historical norms.
All told,
metrics like P / E, PEG, PE 10, P / B, EBIT / EV and EBITDA / EV paint a good picture of when a stock is «on sale», especially when combined with
historical average
valuation levels.
But then, even Marks gets snagged by the «hook» — basing his view of stock
valuations on «projected earnings for the year ahead,» and the corresponding «earnings yield» compared with the yield on bonds (see Investment, Speculation,
Valuation, and Tinker Bell for an extensive
historical perspective on this
metric, compared with far more reliable models).
A second shortcoming of relative
valuation metrics is the benchmark that is used, typically the
metric's long - term
historical average.
Likewise, we can see major disconnects between the stock's current basic
valuation metrics (P / S, P / B, etc.) and their respective recent
historical averages.
Next, two
valuation metrics are listed side - by - side, the current PE ratio followed by the
historical normal PE ratio for perspective.
Again, it's uncertain whether investors will push
valuation metrics down to the lowest points of their
historical ranges.
The paper discusses and identifies the
historical outperformance of Value Investing, with the dataset focussing on 1980 - 2014 and showing that over the long term, the value premium was evident across
valuation metrics, regions and market capitalizations.
When valuing properties, we believe the market places too much emphasis on
historical performance and in - place tenants, and this misplaced analysis leads to discrepancies in
valuation metrics between stabilized and transitional properties.