Not exact matches
It's important to emphasize that I don't view any of these groups as «undervalued» - even the largest stocks are above
historical norms of
valuation (with various individual exceptions), and even apparently «low» P / E
multiples should be evaluated critically since they're on record earnings.
If we assume that
valuations will remain where they are today,
multiples above prior
historical averages, then the future rate of that compounding is going to be reduced accordingly.
This is why we do not expect equity
valuation multiples to revert to
historical means.
In actuality, the median constituent of the S&P 500 has a Forward P / E of 18.4 — a
multiple that rests in the 99th percentile of
historical valuation levels.
Intuitively, a
valuation multiple of half the
historical norm has the opposite impact on subsequent returns as a
valuation multiple of twice the
historical norm.]
Gabelli says he either looks at recent
valuations of similar acquisitions or applies an appropriate
historical industry acquisition
multiple to arrive at the PMV.
That being said, even at today's historically attractive
valuation multiples, investors should likely only expect to earn a potential total annual return of about 5.9 % to 6.9 % (1.9 % yield plus 4 % to 5 % annual earnings growth) over the next decade, far below the company's
historical return rate and the returns offered by most other dividend aristocrats.