Though the rainfall shortage behind the current drought fits within the realm
of historical variability, the authors note that, in the future, that likely won't always be the case.
The skeptic view is that since there has been no climate change observed that is at odds
with historical variability, the alarmist case is not only unproven, but suspect.
Multi-model averages showing the projected year of climate departure
from historical variability for cities around the world using two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.
The motivation for the MCA arose from citizens and organizations in Montana who have expressed interest in receiving timely and pertinent information about climate change, including information
about historical variability, past trends, and projections of future impacts as they relate to topics of economic concern.
Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of
historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
The authors performed their analysis multiple times, both using «flat» historical reconstructions like Mann's and other reconstructions (e.g. Moberg) which show
more historical variability.
The contrast between different brightness components of the quiet Sun is especially high in the UV, which results in a
large historical variability of the UV spectral irradiance.
-- Climate News Network Projected Year of Climate Departure from Historical Variability
when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability
«How should future fire patterns compare to
this historical variability?
The study, published in the journal Nature, refines previous estimates of how sensitive the climate is to carbon dioxide by considering
the historical variability in global temperature.
The Lesser Antilles intersect the «main development region» for Atlantic hurricane formation, making storm data there «our best source for
historical variability of tropical cyclones in the tropical Atlantic in the past three centuries,» the researchers explain.
They argue, «A view of coral reef ecosystems that emphasizes regional and
historical variability and acclimation / adaptation to various environments is likely to be more accurate than one that sees them as characterized by stable and benign temperature regimes close to their upper thresholds.»