Since
the hockey stick paper in 1998, there have been a number of proxy studies analysing a variety of different sources including corals, stalagmites, tree rings, boreholes and ice cores.
Not exact matches
Not so co-incidentally, they also excluded any substantive discussion of the two peer - reviewed comments (Huybers and von Storch) and the Wahl and Ammann Climatic Change
paper (then
in press), which remains to this day the most substantive peer - reviewed treatment of M&M «
hockey stick» critique.
re: # 18 I've long argued that this is an «evidence vs representation» issue, that the emphasis on the
hockey stick in the TAR seemed due to fact that of the huge numbers of
papers and lines of evidence, very few offer a simple, compelling graphic... which is why it has been subject to such attack.
The high level of confidence ascribed to the
hockey stick inferences
in the IPCC TAR, based upon two very recent
papers (MBH) that, while provocative and innovative, used new methods and found results that were counter to the prevailing views.
particulary
in the light that the method used
in that
paper was shown to sometimes mine
hockey -
sticks out of noise.
From the beginning, many of the complaints about Mann's work were more about how it was appropriated by others than the research itself; the first
paper of his identifying a «
hockey stick» pattern to temperatures over the last millennium,
in 1999, was laced with caveats
in describing the distinct sharp recent warming trend.
What that means is that this
paper actually has nothing to do with a «
hockey stick» as it does not have the ability to reproduce 20th century temperatures
in a manner that is «statistically robust.»
And, just as the original Mann et al «
hockey stick» was followed by additional work leading to the «spaghetti diagram» of the IPCC
in 2007 showing numerous similar reconstructions, with a robust common signal, we can expect that this new
paper will for now serve as the standard, but will stimulate additional studies that motivate even stronger conclusions.
Creating a research
papers using a random text generator is about like Mann basing a belief
in AGW on the results of mathematical models that generate «
hockey sticks» out of white noise.
Four of the five authors of the
paper he cites Viau et al (2002) are also the authors of Viau et al (2006) which considers the Mann «
hockey -
stick» compatable with its own findings, stating «The results are remarkably similar,
in spite of the different methods and proxies employed
in these studies (Figure 6).
And the year after the AR4 came out, Michael Mann published a
paper claiming to validate his original
hockey stick, repeating this claim for years after, including
in a book he still promotes on his publicity tours.
However, the shine on the
Hockey Stick had already been removed by the 2003
paper published by McI and McK
in E&E.
If two of the most important
papers for the
hockey stick turn out to be based entirely upon unreasonable methodology which is dishonestly defended, why should anyone trust other
papers in the field to be correct?
The
paper featured an emblematic graph known as the «
hockey -
stick» that showed temperature rise
in the twentieth century was unprecedented
in recent history.
At the EGU General Assembly a few weeks ago there were no less than three
papers from groups
in Copenhagen and Bern assessing critically the merits of methods used to reconstruct historical climate variable from proxies; Bürger's
papers in 2005; Moberg's
paper in Nature
in 2005; various
papers on borehole temperature; The National Academy of Science Report from 2006 — al of which have helped to clarify that the
hockey -
stick methodologies lead indeed to questionable historical reconstructions.
A
paper published today
in Environmental Research Letters has very important implications for tree - ring paleoclimate research [dendrochronology], including Michael Mann's debunked
hockey sticks.
-LSB-...] McIntyre and Ross McKitrick demolished the
hockey stick graph
in a number of
papers that established that almost any numbers would produce -LSB-...]
In that
paper, we discussed all 19 of the proxy - based global temperature reconstructions of the last millennium, including the Mann «
hockey stick».
(for instance, not clearly and openly stating that he was splicing temperature records on to tree proxies
in his
hockey stick paper).
During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific
papers published
in peer - reviewed journals that indicated modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or
hockey -
stick - shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability.
One has only to look at the recent exchange of
papers in Annals of Statistics (McShane and Wyner) on paleoclimate or the recent withdrawl of a
paper claiming an «Australian
hockey stick» caused by a blogger (Steve McIntyre) who had the gaul to approach the results skeptically to see what the problem is here.
January 2018...
in 122 (2017) scientific papers Image Source: Loisel et al., 201 2017: 150 Graphs, 122 Scientific Papers In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer - reviewed scientific papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey - stick - shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global - scale warming during modern time
in 122 (2017) scientific
papers Image Source: Loisel et al., 201 2017: 150 Graphs, 122 Scientific
Papers In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer - reviewed scientific papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic hockey - stick - shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global - scale warming during modern time
In the last 12 months, 150 graphs from 122 peer - reviewed scientific
papers have been published that undermine the popularized conception of a slowly cooling Earth temperature history followed by a dramatic
hockey -
stick - shaped uptick, or an especially unusual global - scale warming during modern times.
Dr. Mann came to public attention back
in 1998 when he and two colleagues published the landmark «MBH98»
paper documenting average global temperatures across the centuries with a line graph whose steep uptick
in recent years earned it the name «the
hockey stick.»
(I've also shown Michael Mann acknowledges his original
hockey stick is not robust as he had claimed
in his
paper.
As I recall, they reviewed maybe as many as 200 peer reviewed
papers from all over the place, and reached a conclusion that the MWP and the LIA were not «Northern Hemisphere» phenomena, as Michael Mann tried to imply
in his
hockey stick graph, but were
in fact true global events, with evidence for that coming from all over the place.
Unfortunately, the temperatures indicated
in the samples selected for the Marcott thesis and the Marcott et al
paper diverged sharply with the instrument record to the point of creating a reverse
hockey stick graph.
2012: The first Australian «
Hockey Stick»
paper gets past spell - check and into a journal, but fails to survive climate science's built -
in quality - control mechanism: Climate Audit review.
They are authors of a
Hockey Stick study (one that is used
in a Royal Society of Edinburgh briefing
paper on Copenhagen dated December 2009)-- more on this later.
No problem about your declining to participate
in my proposed case study on Mann's
hockey stick papers versus the IAC's «Responsible Conduct
in the Global Research Enterprise» report.
In fact the hockey stick paper was such a focal point that during the AR4 the writers and editor of chapter 6 violated several policies and regulations regarding review, process and timelines to try to throw in a supposedly peer reviewed article backing up the hockey stic
In fact the
hockey stick paper was such a focal point that during the AR4 the writers and editor of chapter 6 violated several policies and regulations regarding review, process and timelines to try to throw
in a supposedly peer reviewed article backing up the hockey stic
in a supposedly peer reviewed article backing up the
hockey stick.
[Update, October 7: It's probably worth repeating, of course, that there may be more
hockey sticks lurking
in a
paper pointed out previously by both Delayed Oscillator and myself.
It took the form of a rebuttal of a McIntyre
paper that had attacked the
hockey stick and had been published
in the same journal.
the IPCC needed to have the Wahl and Amman
papers in the report so that they could continue to use the
hockey stick, with its frightening and unprecedented uptick
in temperatures.
I contrast the above questions with the CA post on the problematic and unusual circumstances involved
in the IPCC keeping the research of Gergis et al (that has results favorable to the results of Mann's
hockey stick papers which AR3 and AR4 endorsed) alive even though there is prima fascia evidence that it missed the July 31 deadline.
Mr. Watts, while you are presenting this new study by Melvin et al. as something that provides results which allegedly refute Mann's
hockey stick you do not tell your audience here that the temperature reconstruction shown
in the graph, explicitly mentioned by you here,
in the Melvin et al
paper is done only for a region of Northern Scandinavia, unlike the temperature reconstruction
in Mann et al., (1999), doi: 10.1029 / 1999GL900070, which was a reconstruction of the Northern Hemispheric temperature.
The
Hockey stick in this paper doesn't even preclude the possibility of a Medieval Warm Period with about equal temperatures as in the 20th century, since the 20th century average temperature still lies within the upper half of the error band of Mann's Hockey Stick in the part of the reconstruction that covers the Medieval t
stick in this
paper doesn't even preclude the possibility of a Medieval Warm Period with about equal temperatures as
in the 20th century, since the 20th century average temperature still lies within the upper half of the error band of Mann's
Hockey Stick in the part of the reconstruction that covers the Medieval t
Stick in the part of the reconstruction that covers the Medieval times.
There are a few comments
in the climategate
papers (and elsewhere) that have suggested annoyance at having their «scientific opinion» co-opted by some sort of group effort to defend Mann at all costs because the
hockey stick was «the» official empirical basis of CAGW.
McIntyre and McKitrick had quietly dropped their erroneous original assertion (
in their 2003
paper discussed
in chapter 8 that the
hockey stick was an artifact of bad data.
The
hockey stick pattern also shows up
in the following
papers: «Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 Years» «Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium»
The fact other
papers get the same result
in no way indicates errors didn't impact Mann's original
hockey stick.
MikeP — The Yamal series are not
in the
hockey stick papers, and the NAS only indicated problems with strip bark samples after 1850.
As IO have extensively proven
in my
papers and by proponent of the AGW (see for example Crowley, Science 2000), the traditional climate models produce a signature quite similar to the
hockey stick graph by Mann which not only simply disagree with history but has also been seriously put
in question under several studies.
Earlier this year, a
paper by Michael Mann - for years a leading light
in the IPCC, and the author of the infamous «
hockey stick graph» showing flat temperatures for 2,000 years until the recent dizzying increase - made an extraordinary admission: that, as his critics had always claimed, there had indeed been a» medieval warm period» around 1000 AD, when the world may well have been hotter than it is now.
And the probable scientific misconduct
in Marcotts 2013
hockey stick paper, which Science still has not retracted and which Climate.gov now features prominently.
In this exciting variant on an old Native American sport, a two - meter square of rubber graph
paper is stretched between four
hockey sticks and used to trampoline a TV weatherman skyward towards the tropopause.
This was achieved by the Mann, Bradley, and Hughes 1998
paper in Nature titled, Global — scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, the original peer - reviewed
hockey stick article.
A certain Bradley, one of the co-authors of the first
hockey stick paper (Mann Bradley Hughes 1998), has joined Mashey
in accusing WR of «plagiarism».
The
paper was published by GRL
in 1999, and included the first
hockey stick that stretched back to 1000 AD.
The Real Issue is that this
paper was trumpeted far and wide
in the lame stream media and the blade of the
hockey stick was highlighted
in the articles.
When he learned of the significance of the Mann et al. report on the IPCC outcomes, he felt it was important enough to dedicate some of his time to review that
paper thoroughly and see whether the data had been treated objectively
in order to construct the
hockey -
stick curve.