In his early analysis, for example, the
model said that the number of
races a
horse had previously run was a crucial factor when making predictions.
To investigate what levels of sustained returns would really be required to establish evidence of skill or expertise, Browne's team
modeled a random strategy to simulate so - called «naïve» play, in which equal bets were placed on randomly selected
horses using a representative sample of 211 weekend
races.