we noted the rapid warming during 1990 - 2006, naming as the first reason «intrinsic variability within the climate system» — which is also the prime reason for the slower warming trend when looking at the period starting in
the hot outlier year 1998.
In 144 I used the phrase «temperature extremes have gotten enormously hotter» which I meant as a paraphrase of Tamino who wrote: «any way you slice it severe
hot outliers are increasing.»
and «This exposes the fact that the distribution is becoming broader and that there is a disproportionate increase of extreme
hot outliers.»
Everyone seems to claim that
that hot outliers are increasing and that this is self - evident.
You can't tell anything about the statistics of
hot outliers by simple inspection of local time series.
An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely
hot outliers, more than three standard deviations... warmer than climatology.
«A more important change is the emergence of a subset of the hot category, extremely
hot outliers, defined as anomalies exceeding [3 standard deviations].
Thus, by using local trends, you are pulling for the null result you got, because the places that had
hot outliers would have higher trends, so the
hot outliers would appear smaller in your metric?
With respect to baseline statistics, severe
hot outliers are increasing to an impressive extent.
Seasonal variability could increase because of blocking patterns being established longer in some years making
them hot outliers.
Now summertime extremely
hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (σ) warmer than climatology, typically cover about 10 % of the land area.
«The times and places with hot summers tend to be where the weather is dominated... by high pressure, so there is high correspondence between the [extremely
hot outliers or extreme] heat waves and drought conditions.»
This exposes the fact that the distribution is becoming broader and that there is a disproportionate increase of extreme
hot outliers.
Not exact matches
But the region between those
outlying neighborhoods and the close - in domains of
hot Jupiters and super-Earths remains stubbornly out of reach: too close to the star for direct imaging, too far for indirect techniques relying on stellar wobbles or dimming.
Others warn, as Knopf Executive Vice President Paul Bogaards has told The
Hot Sheet, «Blockbusters are imperfect bellwethers when it comes to assessing the overall health of our industry, mostly because they are
outliers.»
The Switch has been selling like
hot cakes and though I knew it would, many of us didn't think it would sell THIS well Nintendo has always been an
outlier in the games... Continue reading →
Now, after more than 50 years as an enigmatic art world
outlier, Sturtevant, who has often felt more of a kinship with French post-structuralist philosophers than with the
hot artists of the day, finds that she is in the strange position of being a
hot artist herself.
«The U.S. temperatures in the summer of 2012 are an example of a new trend of
outlying seasonal extremes that are warmer than the
hottest seasonal temperatures of the mid-20th century,» GISS director James E. Hansen said.
«The U.S. temperatures in the summer of 2012 are an example of a new trend of
outlying seasonal extremes that are warmer than the
hottest seasonal temperatures of the mid-20th century,» NASA scientist James E. Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in a statement.
Summary of how they got to this finding: They use CMIP models which, if not outright flawed, have not proved their validity in estimated temperature levels in the 2030 to 2070 timeframe, are used as the basis for extrapolations that assert the creation of more and more 3 - sigma «extreme events» of
hot weather; this is despite the statistical contradiction and weak support for predicting significant increases in
outlier events based on mean increases; then, based on statistical correlations between mortality and extreme heat events (ie heat waves), temperature warming trends are conjured into an enlargement of the risks from heat events; risks increase significantly only by ignoring obvious adjustments and mitigations any reasonable community or person would make to adapt to warmer weather.