The second study meanwhile looked at
how aerosol emissions impact the Earth's temperature through a phenomenon the researchers call «transient climate sensitivity,» or how much of the Earth's temperature will change when the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaches twice its level during the pre-industrial times.
Not exact matches
But if the decrease in
aerosols is driving the brightening trend and the yield increase, there's a limit to
how low those
emissions can get.
The results show for the first time for a number of natural compounds, which together account for around 70 per cent of the biological hydrocarbon
emissions,
how much each compound produces low - volatility products and
how they can possibly affect the climate via producing
aerosol particles.
Differences in
how a model represents space and time scales,
emission rates, meteorology, gas - phase chemistry, and other
aerosol processes all affect model predictions.
Some question remains as to
how much of the temporary slowdown in surface warming is due to human
aerosol emissions,
how much due to ENSO,
how much due to heat being transferred to the deep oceans, and so forth.
This relationship between cumulative
emissions and warming is not perfect, as it will change based on what happens to non-CO2 greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, as well as
how quickly climate - cooling
aerosols are reduced.
And exactly
how much global warming is being offset by human
aerosol emissions?
This also depends on
how our
aerosol and soot
emissions change in the future.
Worse, you have to know
aerosol emissions as a function of not just time, but of latitude also, because
how much sunlight they reflect depends on the angle of sunlight that impacts them.
It is uncertain
how a given
emissions path converts into atmospheric concentrations of the various radiatively active gases or
aerosols.
«Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of
how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward).»
«About» ought to be in italics because we really don't know
how much cooling is caused by other
emissions, like particulate
aerosols that go up the smokestack along with the carbon dioxide.