Whether the large - scale thermodynamic environment and atmospheric static stability (often measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE) becomes more favourable for tropical storms depends on
how changes in atmospheric circulation, especially subsidence, affect the static stability of the atmosphere, and how the wind shear changes.
Not exact matches
The researchers warn, however, that the future evolution of the AMO remains uncertain, with many factors potentially affecting
how it interacts with
atmospheric circulation patterns, such as Arctic sea ice loss,
changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and concentrations of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere.
They were Jorge Sarmiento, an oceanographer at Princeton University who constructs ocean -
circulation models that calculate
how much
atmospheric carbon dioxide eventually goes into the world's oceans; Eileen Claussen, executive director of the Pew Center for Global Climate
Change in Washington, D.C.; and David Keith, a physicist with the University of Calgary
in Alberta who designs technological solutions to the global warming problem.
Would somebody here, like to explain to me
how we can lose Arctic Sea ice (
in part or
in whole) without
changing the
atmospheric circulation patterns?
However, if the loss of Arctic Sea ice has significantly
changed global
atmospheric circulation patterns, then we are dealing with a different system that has only been
in existence since 2007, and we do not know
how often to expect crop failures.
How do the complex feedbacks
change atmospheric circulation patterns, and the interaction of these patterns to
changes in ice cap topography (e.g. at the LGM)?
And
how much of the hiatus is cloud caused
in step
changes in ocean and
atmospheric circulation.
I will now analyse
how the system could work and show that composition
changes not involving
changes in mass only affect
atmospheric volume and
circulation patterns and not surface temperature.
Francis, who wasn't involved with either study, is one of the main proponents of an idea that by altering
how much heat the ocean lets out, sea ice melt and Arctic warming can also
change atmospheric circulation patterns,
in particular by making the jet stream form larger peaks, or highs, and troughs, or lows.
Lamont's Ryan Abernathey and Richard Seager are studying
how changes in the ocean cause sea surface temperature to vary, and
how these anomalies drive
changes in atmospheric circulation to create extreme weather events.
How atmospheric and ocean
circulation responds to various
changes in forcing would need to be detailed if someone wanted to «prove» anthropogenic forcing is involved other than a minor increase
in the average surface temperature.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can
change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (
how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random
atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
As
atmospheric circulation changes, tropical cyclone tracks are bound to
change (and models show this), but we have low confidence now
in predicting just
how they might
change.
To the helpful set of references you've provided dealing with this broader set of questions, I would
in a shamelessly self - promoting manner also offer this publication that deals with the issue of
how atmospheric circulation changes associated with anthropogenic climate
change might alter growing season length
in the Northern Hemisphere:
Three - dimensional (3D) planetary general
circulation models (GCMs) derived from the models that we use to project 21st Century
changes in Earth's climate can now be used to address outstanding questions about
how Earth became and remained habitable despite wide swings
in solar radiation,
atmospheric chemistry, and other climate forcings; whether these different eras of habitability manifest themselves
in signals that might be detected from a great distance; whether and
how planets such as Mars and Venus were habitable
in the past;
how common habitable exoplanets might be; and
how we might best answer this question with future observations.
The large uncertainty ranges
in atmospheric pCO2 arise from uncertainty
in how surface productivity responds to
circulation change.