However, it is still reasonable to invoke central tendency given
how global average temperatures are calculated, not to mention other evidence we might look to, such as the experience of extremes in different climates.
In other words, the impacts of climate change are much more complicated than just
how global average temperatures change.
2) CAGW movement type models never reconstruct any lengthy past history accurately without creative and unique adjustment of aerosol values used as a fudge factor; that is why models of widely varying sensitivities supposedly all accurately reconstruct the past (different made - up assumed historical values used for each) but fail in future prediction, like they didn't predict
how global average temperatures have been flat to declining over the past 15 years.
to project both
how global average temperature will respond to future emissions and the associated uncertainty in those projections.
Not exact matches
In this study, published in the journal Royal Society Open Science, the researchers mapped the
global occurrence of mammalian species living in different social systems to determine
how averages and variation in rainfall and
temperature explain species distributions.
A recent report by two leading nonprofits, the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council, details
how the 11 U.S. western states together have experienced an increase in
average temperature during the last five years some 70 percent greater than the
global average rise.
Laaksonen and his colleagues did not try to predict
how Finland's
temperatures will change in the coming decades, but according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report, Arctic
temperatures are likely to continue rising faster than the
global average through the end of the 21st century.
Ice core data from the poles clearly show dramatic swings in
average global temperatures, but researchers still don't know
how local ecosystems reacted to the change.
It's not clear
how far north such thawing might extend if
global average temperatures continue to warm until they match those from long ago.
But the U.K. Met Office (national weather service), the U.S.'s National Center for Atmospheric Research and other partners around the globe aim to change that in the future by developing regular assessments — much like present evaluations of
global average temperatures along with building from the U.K. flooding risk modeling efforts — to determine
how much a given season's extreme weather could be attributed to human influence.
That's the finding of a new study published on Thursday in Science, which uses updated information about
how temperature is recorded, particularly at sea, to take a second look at the
global average temperature.
To show
how close the world already is to surpassing those limits, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data by
averaging the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing them to a baseline closer to preindustrial times.
To show
how close the world already is to reaching that limit, Climate Central has been reanalyzing the
global temperature data each month,
averaging together the NASA and NOAA numbers and comparing them to the
average from 1881 - 1910, a time period closer to preindustrial times.
The graphic displays monthly
global temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts
how each month compares to the
average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
It's the tie that binds and while the
global average temperature is the defining metric, the increasing incidence of heat waves and longer lasting extreme heat is
how the world will experience it.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives —
hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
As an example (and I don't have data, just a thought experiment), when we estimate
average global temperature and we grid up the planet,
how do we test that the grid size is appropriate to sample?
How about this as a way to encourage scientists and the media to get to the point: Ask a list of top climate researchers to predict the
average global temperature and the consequent effects on current species» ability to survive in the year 2100.
In terms of
how we are altering the climate, it is these sudden transitions that we need to understand, rather than focus so much of our resources on assessments of the
global averaged temperature trend.
So,
how should somewhat complex matters relating to
average global surface
temperature anomalies be reported in the media?
There, they define climate sensitivity as
how strong an effect doubling CO2 will have on
average global temperature.
Pachauri started by saying that they «clearly ignored» the IPCC's recommendations on
how to prevent climate change, and then laid into the G8: Though it was a good thing that the G8 agreed to the aspirational goal of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2 °C by 2050, Pachauri said he found it «interesting» that the G8 then proceeded to pay no heed to when the IPCC says carbon emissions should peak.
Why don't you explain to us in your words with specific references, not «check the satellite records», what the
global mean
average temperature was in 1988,
how it moved in the 20 years hence, and what it is today.
I am particularly interested in
how current
average global temperatures relate to those of the past.
How about we stop trying to calculate
global average temperatures from surface records altogether?
He argued that
averages of the Earth's
temperature are devoid of a physical context which would indicate
how they should be interpreted or what meaning can be attached to changes in
global temperatures.
Clearly the rate at which TOA imbalance diffuses into and through the
global ocean is key to
how much and
how quickly
global average surface
temperature will rise over any given span of time.
«While the Paris Agreement does not address the issue of climate engineering expressly, the target of limiting
global average temperature rise to no more than 2 °C (a goal that appears unlikely to be achieved in the absence of significant amounts of carbon removal) raises questions with respect to
how the issue of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and solar radiation management (SRM) technologies may be addressed under the Paris Agreement.
Just think
how much easier your argument would be now (correct though it is), if you and the rest of your tribe hadn't been pitching the surface temps as «
global average temperature» for so long.
The Stadium Wave needs to be
averaged to determine
how it impacts the
global temperature.
The DICE model attempts to quantify
how the atmospheric concentration of CO2 negatively affects economic output through its impact on
global average surface
temperature.
It showed, if I remember correctly,
how a pretty good correlation between calculated and actual
global average temperatures could be obtained for the last century using the NASA graphs of various forcings, here: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/RadF.gif
It shows up well in their Figure 1a about which they state ``... you can see
how well the POGA H
global average surface
temperature matches the observations...» It matches well the phony eighties and nineties and would be off the mark if the real
temperatures were substituted.
I have always wondered
how one could use tree rings to estimate
global average temperature.
Policy - makers did not much care about the
average global temperature — they wanted to know
how things would change in their own locality.
How about we make the alarmists commit to stating an «ideal»
global average temperature since they seem to know what is bad for us?
How much must I reduce my greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if I want to do my fair share to contribute towards the
global effort to keep
global warming below a 2 °C rise in
average temperature over preindustrial times?
I chose this book because I am a curious naturalist who has often wondered
how «
global warming» could be defined by one number, the «
average»
global temperature and
how it could be caused almost exclusively by a single factor, the rising concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere.
No one explains
how to convert a uniform to an
average global temperature.
Judith
How will we handle «climate sensitivity» to «
global warming» when
global average temperatures start coolingwhile CO2 continues to increase?
All dots, red or gray, show
how much
global temperatures rose above or below the 1951 — 1980
average.
If the actual
average global temperature can not be measured
how do you know know that it is cooling?
So,
how do we tell the homogenized, infilled
global average temperature series are warming from Co2?
Global average temperatures can not be measured with a degree of accuracy to ascertain whether it is warming or cooling., So depending
how you measure it, it will show either a warming, a cooling or a static
temperature.
I am still waiting for word on what the
global temperature anomaly for the month was, but I suspect it will be fairly close to normal, which means that on
average the
temperature of the Earth will come in at ~ 12.0 °C which is 4 °C colder than it will be in 6 months from now, but because of
how they talk about
temperature, I will be the only one pointing out the difference between the actual
temperature and the anomaly
temperature.
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the
global climate system, such as changes in
global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on large spatial scales; and
how the climate responds to large - scale forcing, like a large volcanic eruption.
That's right, the latest climate science (some 10 studies published in just the past 3 years) indicates that the earth's climate sensitivity — that is,
how much the
global average surface
temperature will rise as a result of greenhouse gases emitted from human activities — is some 33 percent less than scientists thought at the time of the last IPCC Assessment, published in 2007.
What were
global average temperatures, and
how do we know?
How on earth anyone claims to know the total
global average temperature today, including all layers of the oceans and atmosphere, begs belief.
Considering
how deep the solar minimum was in 2008 - 2009, and
how low total solar irradiance went compared to where it was in 1998, given that the
average global temperature changes from peak to trough in a normal solar cycle from the changes in TSI can be of the order as high as.2 degrees centigrade, and also given that we were nearer the peak of the solar cycle in 1998 than we were in the 2009 - 2010 El Nino, I should think that it is more than reasonable to suspect that the difference in impact of the TSI on
global between 1998's and 2009 - 2010 is easily on the order of.1 C, or roughly ten times your.01 C figure.