In other words, the impacts of climate change are much more complicated than just
how global average temperatures change.
Not exact matches
Laaksonen and his colleagues did not try to predict
how Finland's
temperatures will
change in the coming decades, but according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report, Arctic temperatures are likely to continue rising faster than the global average through the end of the 21st ce
change in the coming decades, but according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's latest report, Arctic temperatures are likely to continue rising faster than the global average through the end of the 21st ce
Change's latest report, Arctic
temperatures are likely to continue rising faster than the
global average through the end of the 21st century.
Ice core data from the poles clearly show dramatic swings in
average global temperatures, but researchers still don't know
how local ecosystems reacted to the
change.
But the U.K. Met Office (national weather service), the U.S.'s National Center for Atmospheric Research and other partners around the globe aim to
change that in the future by developing regular assessments — much like present evaluations of
global average temperatures along with building from the U.K. flooding risk modeling efforts — to determine
how much a given season's extreme weather could be attributed to human influence.
The graphic displays monthly
global temperature data from the U.K. Met Office and charts
how each month compares to the
average for the same period from 1850 - 1900, the same baselines used in the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.
Pachauri started by saying that they «clearly ignored» the IPCC's recommendations on
how to prevent climate
change, and then laid into the G8: Though it was a good thing that the G8 agreed to the aspirational goal of limiting
global average temperature rise to 2 °C by 2050, Pachauri said he found it «interesting» that the G8 then proceeded to pay no heed to when the IPCC says carbon emissions should peak.
He argued that
averages of the Earth's
temperature are devoid of a physical context which would indicate
how they should be interpreted or what meaning can be attached to
changes in
global temperatures.
Policy - makers did not much care about the
average global temperature — they wanted to know
how things would
change in their own locality.
Current computer models can faithfully simulate many of the important aspects of the
global climate system, such as
changes in
global average temperature over many decades; the march of the seasons on large spatial scales; and
how the climate responds to large - scale forcing, like a large volcanic eruption.
Considering
how deep the solar minimum was in 2008 - 2009, and
how low total solar irradiance went compared to where it was in 1998, given that the
average global temperature changes from peak to trough in a normal solar cycle from the
changes in TSI can be of the order as high as.2 degrees centigrade, and also given that we were nearer the peak of the solar cycle in 1998 than we were in the 2009 - 2010 El Nino, I should think that it is more than reasonable to suspect that the difference in impact of the TSI on
global between 1998's and 2009 - 2010 is easily on the order of.1 C, or roughly ten times your.01 C figure.
The interesting thing is
how these patterns correspond to
changes in
global average temperature.
They worked out
how these proportions would
change if the
average planetary
temperatures reach 2 °C above the «normal» of the pre-industrial world, and they found that human - induced
global warming could already be responsible for 18 % of extremes of rain or snow, and 75 % of heatwaves worldwide.
Figure 3: Example of
how the
average global surface
temperature would have had to
change in the second half and third quarter of the year for McLean's 2011
temperature prediction to become accurate.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can
change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (
average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (
how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
Since the IPCC Third Assessment, many additional studies, particularly in regions that previously had been little researched, have enabled a more systematic understanding of
how the timing and magnitude of impacts may be affected by
changes in climate and sea level associated with differing amounts and rates of
change in
global average temperature.
In it, they documented
how a
change in observing practices before and after World War II produced a cold bias in the sea surface
temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of
global average temperatures (see here and here for more details).
To plan for the future, people need to know
how their local conditions will
change, not
how the
average global temperature will climb.
Not because the calculation is complicated — just take
how much the
global average temperature has
changed over some longish time period (a couple of decades or longer) and divide by much energy was used to force that
change.
The basic facts are that the long - range equilibrium
temperature rises with every rise in CO2, that the CO2 will only stop rising when we have a world economy with zero net emissions, and that even a 2 - degree increase in
average global temperature is forecast to produce huge
changes, so there is a limit to
how slowly we can go about the transition to zero emissions.
It is stunning
how many people think they're climate experts and are perfectly ignorant of the difference between
changes in
global average temperature and local
temperature variation.
Re # 3 The Basics should explain
how small
change in
average global temperature will have very serious consequences.
You know, I would have a lot less trouble believing climate scientists could actually measure
changes in
global average sea level to within a milimeter, if I didn't know
how badly they overstate their confidence in «
global average temperature» in all its many manifestations, with all its many assumptions, models and WAGs.
The important line to note is the dashed black line, which indicates
how local
temperatures would
change if they rose at the same rate as the
global average.