Researchers calculated
how global sea levels have risen and fallen in the past.
In a more recent paper, our own Stefan Rahmstorf used a simple regression model to suggest that sea level rise (SLR) could reach 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100, but this did not consider individual processes like dynamic ice sheet changes, being only based on
how global sea level has been linked to global warming over the past 120 years.
Not exact matches
He is the principal investigator for a mission called Oceans Melting Greenland (affectionately known as OMG), a five - year effort to assess the extent to which warmer oceans are melting Greenland's glaciers, and
how this information can be used to better estimate
global sea level rise.
In this dark place, so far from human eyes, significant environmental change may already be underway, which could impact
how quickly the ice sheet slips into the
sea and, subsequently,
how quickly
global sea levels may rise.
As
global sea level rises, low - lying island nations must reckon
how to cope not only with loss of agricultural acreage and increased vulnerability to storms, but also with reduced habitat for endemic species
MIAMI — One of the first
sea -
level rise maps Broadway Harewood saw was a few years back, when climate activists gathered in his neighborhood to talk about
how global warming would affect people in less - affluent South Florida communities.
Elisabetta Pierazzo of the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, Arizona, and colleagues used a
global climate model to study
how water vapour and
sea salt thrown up from an impact will affect ozone
levels for years after the event.
In the San Francisco Bay area,
sea level rise alone could inundate an area of between 50 and 410 square kilometres by 2100, depending both on
how much action is taken to limit further
global warming and
how fast the polar ice sheets melt.
The finding, detailed in the Jan. 22 issue of the journal Nature, suggests that this process could be important to more accurately modeling
how Greenland will respond to climate change and contribute to the already 8 inches of
global sea level rise since 1900.
A working group known as PALSEA2 (Paleo constraints on
sea level rise) used past records of local change in
sea level and converted them to a
global mean
sea level by predicting
how the surface of the Earth deforms due to changes in ice - ocean loading of the crust, along with changes in gravitational attraction on the ocean surface.
In the latest 161 - page document, dated March 9, EPA officials include several new studies highlighting
how a warming planet is likely to mean more intense U.S. heat waves and hurricanes, shifting migration patterns for plants and wildlife, and the possibility of up to a foot of
global sea level rise in the next century.
On its own,
sea level rise could inundate between 50 and 410 square kilometres of this area by 2100, depending on
how much is done to limit further
global warming and
how fast the polar ice sheets melt.
The results highlight
how the interaction between ocean conditions and the bedrock beneath a glacier can influence the frozen mass, helping scientists better predict future Antarctica ice loss and
global sea level rise.
The key issue in predicting future rates of
global sea level rise is to understand and predict
how ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will react to a warming climate.
And if it were to melt,
how much would
global sea levels rise, and
how quickly?
Kopp's group also used computers to model
how the
sea level would have changed without
global warming.
Reinhard was awarded for his work in investigating
how the potential disintegration of Antarctic floating ice shelves could contribute to increased ice flow from inland glaciers, and a resulting rise in
global sea levels.
Thanks in large part to satellite measurements, scientists» skill in measuring
how much
sea levels are rising on a
global scale - currently 0.13 inch (3.4 millimeters) per year - has improved dramatically over the past quarter century.
Exactly
how much the average
global sea level will rise in the future will depend on our greenhouse gas emissions.
In the first comprehensive satellite study of its kind, a University of Colorado at Boulder - led team used NASA data to calculate
how much Earth's melting land ice is adding to
global sea level rise.
Losing the whole West Antarctic ice sheet would eventually add three metres to
global sea levels, but scientists aren't yet sure
how soon this could happen.
Drews was awarded for his work in investigating
how the potential disintegration of Antarctic floating ice shelves could contribute to increased ice flow from inland glaciers, and a resulting rise in
global sea levels [5].
How has
global sea level changed in the past millennia?
The important point is that the uncertainty is not about whether continued rapid CO2 emissions would cause large
sea level rise, submerging
global coastlines — it is about
how soon the large changes would begin.
When
Sea Levels Attack Few people ever realize
how much
global warming will impact people across the globe, especially those living along the coast or on the islands scattered throughout the oceans.
How has
global sea level changed in the past millennia?
Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing
how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and
global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).
By the way, there are two articles «The Climate Change Commitment» by Tom Wigley and «
How Much More
Global Warming and
Sea Level Rise?»
pg xiii This Policymakers Summary aims to bring out those elements of the main report which have the greatest relevance to policy formulation, in answering the following questions • What factors determine
global climate 7 • What are the greenhouse gases, and
how and why are they increasing 9 • Which gases are the most important 9 • How much do we expect the climate to change 9 • How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change global climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymak
how and why are they increasing 9 • Which gases are the most important 9 •
How much do we expect the climate to change 9 • How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change global climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymak
How much do we expect the climate to change 9 •
How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change global climate 9 How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymak
How much confidence do we have in our predictions 9 • Will the climate of the future be very different 9 • Have human activities already begun to change
global climate 9
How much will sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymak
How much will
sea level rise 9 • What will be the effects on ecosystems 9 • What should be done to reduce uncertainties, and
how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymak
how long will this take 9 This report is intended to respond to the practical needs of the policymaker.
The basic story of human caused
global warming and its coming impacts is still the same: humans are causing it and the future will bring higher
sea levels and warmer temperatures, the only questions are:
how much and
how fast?
Overall, the panel's reports have never focused much on research examining
how humans respond (or fail to respond) to certain kinds of risk, particularly «super wicked» problems such
global warming, which is imbued with persistent uncertainty on key points (the pace of
sea -
level rise, the extent of warming from a certain buildup of greenhouse gases), dispersed and delayed risks, and a variegated menu of possible responses.
Climate alarm depends on several gloomy assumptions — about
how fast emissions will increase,
how fast atmospheric concentrations will rise,
how much
global temperatures will rise,
how warming will affect ice sheet dynamics and
sea -
level rise,
how warming will affect weather patterns,
how the latter will affect agriculture and other economic activities, and
how all climate change impacts will affect public health and welfare.
But, we now have the science to determine
how much the emissions related to fossil products have contributed to
global temperature rise and
sea level rise.
To analyze
how Mount Pinatubo affected the
global sea level, the researchers created model simulations and applied natural factors to them for observation.
With the IPCC previously «taking a pass», in its assessment of Greenland's contribution to
sea -
level rise - due to poor understanding of
how ice sheets would respond to
global warming back in 2007 - this new paper is an important first stab at pinning down the slippery mechanisms of «ice sheet dynamics».
But, it seems in a race to find evidence of the
global sea level rises predicted by man - made
global warming models, a number of researchers have underestimated
how problematic the data is.
Nonetheless, the linear trends do offer us a crude method of seeing
how global the apparent «
global»
sea level rise is.
So, they didn't actually simulate
sea level changes, but instead estimated
how much
sea level rise they would expect from man - made
global warming, and then used computer model predictions of temperature changes, to predict that
sea levels will have risen by 0.8 - 2 metres by 2100.
A number of the man - made
global warming computer models have tried to simulate
how much «
sea level rise» to expect from man - made
global warming, e.g., Meehl et al., 20015 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2010 (Abstract; Google Scholar access); Jevrejeva et al., 2012 (Abstract; Google Scholar access).
This technical document seeks to quantify
how a 1 - meter
sea -
level, as a consequence of
global warming, would affect coastal wetlands in 76 developing countries and territories, taking into account
how much of wetlands would be submerged and
how likely the wetlands would move inland as the coastline recedes.
See
how sea -
level rise from
global warming puts New York City at risk — and find other hot spots threatened by rising
seas on the Climate Hot Map.
The next time you read some horrific article about
how global warming is going to make the
sea -
level rise, cause droughts, floods, and just about anything else you can name including 3 - eyed cows and cooties, remember that the climate model used to predict it is crap.
How, for example, does the fact that the
sea level has been rising since 1961 (and in fact rising since 1861, although that's not mentioned) provide evidence either way for an anthropogenic cause for
global warming?
Thus, we suggest that scientists and modelers who seek
global warming signals should track
how much heat the ocean is storing at any given time, termed
global ocean heat content (OHC), as well as
sea level rise (SLR).
Girma August 13, 2012 at 9:41 am asked:» stefanthedenier
How do you explain the
sea level rise without increase in
global mean temperature?»
And third and most importantly, continued
global warming due to manmade emissions of greenhouse gases will help determine
how much
sea level rise we will see from Antarctica and Greenland.
If you remember, the Reverend Al Gore, head kook of the Church of
Global Warming, preached the gospel about how global warming will cause the sea - level to
Global Warming, preached the gospel about
how global warming will cause the sea - level to
global warming will cause the
sea -
level to rise.
Case in point: you point out
how a CENTURY of
global warming is borne out in the atmosphere, the cryosphere, the ocean temperature, and in
sea level rise ALL YOUR OPPONENT needs to say is that the last 18 years doesn't look like «warming» for the atmosphere above 15,000 feet (which, btw, WHAT atmosphere?)
It is also part of our job to explain as best we can what the implications are of our scientific findings and
how they may affect the affect the
global temperature,
global and regional climate, environment,
sea level, etc..
The paper by Tamisiea et al. (2010) examines
how the exchange of water between the atmosphere, oceans, and continents can contribute to the water cycle, load the Earth and change its geoid, and cause the annual variations in relative
sea level over the
global ocean.