Not exact matches
Scientists can measure
how much energy greenhouse gases now add (roughly three watts per square meter), but what eludes precise definition is
how much other factors — the response of clouds to warming, the cooling role of aerosols, the heat and gas absorbed by
oceans, human transformation of the landscape, even the natural
variability of solar strength — diminish or strengthen that effect.
Comparing layers in the ice - core samples and
ocean sediments has allowed researchers to deduce e.g.
how the average temperature on Earth has changed over time, and also
how great the
variability was.
Lozier (p. 1507) discusses
how recent studies have challenged our view of large - scale
ocean circulation as a simple conveyor belt, by revealing a more complex and nuanced system that reflects the effects of
ocean eddies and surface atmospheric winds on the structure and
variability of the
ocean's overturning.
Saba, who has conducted modeling studies on the impacts of climate change on endangered leatherback turtles in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, says the Northwest Atlantic loggerhead study offers a new approach in understanding
how climate
variability affects sea turtle populations.
After obtaining precise ice shelf height data, the researchers used a regional climate model to work out
how much of the
variability on a year - to - year basis was due to snowfall (which causes ice shelves to grow taller) versus
ocean - driven melting (which causes ice shelves to thin from below).
Georgia Tech College of Sciences: Study shows large
variability in abundance of viruses that infect
ocean microorganisms Science Daily: Strolling salamanders provide clues on
how animals evolved to move from water to land NSF News From the Field: Strolling salamanders provide clues on
how animals evolved to move from water to land
2) Another way would be to carry out a process - oriented comparison, wherein one focuses on a set of processes or natural
variabilities (e.g. ENSO, NAO or Indian
Ocean Dipole) and investigate
how good a particular model reproduces climatology of certain variables during those processes /
variabilities (in reference to similar climatology from the satellites).
When models are selected with respect to
how well they are synchronized with the world's
ocean, then those that are in phase with the Earth's natural
variability capture the spatial pattern of
ocean heating better than the models that are maximally out of phase.
One of the major drivers of this
variability involves the El Niño — La Niña oscillation in the Pacific, which determines
how much heat is taken up by the
oceans rather than the atmosphere.
US CLIVAR will foster connections with other scientific communities and partners to address
how the
ocean will respond to climate
variability and change by engaging these communities through working groups, workshops, professional societies, and encouraging work across disciplines.
Identify
how anthropogenic forcing and natural atmosphere -
ocean variability contribute uniquely to decadal timescale changes in the width of the tropical belt.
«We don't fully understand
how to input things like changes in the
oceans, and because we don't fully understand it you could say that natural
variability is now working to suppress the warming,» Jones admitted to the paper, apparently acknowledging what skeptical climate scientists have been attempting to convey for years.
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of
how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that data set), or the complete passing over of short term
variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
At the moment, the uncertainties in modeling and complexities of the
ocean system even prevent any quantification of
how much of the present changes in the
oceans is being caused by anthropogenic climate change or natural climate
variability, and
how much by other human activities such as fishing, pollution, etc..
And a better understanding of North Atlantic
Ocean dynamics is central to understanding Pacific
Ocean variability and vital in predicting
how global mean temperatures may evolve on decadal timescales.
Given that the
ocean heat data are not particularly accurate I don't see
how you can jump to such a neat conclusion that La Ninas and El Ninos always and at all times integrate to provide the necessary energy swings to account for all climate
variability.
US CLIVAR is collaborating with the
ocean carbon and biogeochemistry science community to increase observations and understanding of the coupled physical / biogeochemical processes that maintain the marine ecosystem and oceanic sources and sinks of carbon and predict
how they will evolve in response to climate
variability and change.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar
variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar
variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land /
ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (
how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
Published in the Journal of Climate, authors Richard Seager and Martin Hoerling cleverly used climate models forced by sea surface temperatures to separate
how much of the past century's North American droughts have been caused by
ocean temperatures, natural
variability, and humans.
How would it EVER be possible for changes in climate to be unconnected with
ocean variability?
The big question now becomes
how much is anthropogenic forcing affecting the natural internal
variability that formerly (prior to the mid-20th century) was driven by solar
variability and
ocean cycles.
Hence,
how the pH of coastal ecosystems in year 2100 will differ from current ones is difficult to predict due to lack of understanding of the average values and their
variability in current environments and of the future trajectories of the multiple factors affecting coastal pH compared to the open
ocean.
Improve understanding of
how AMOC
variability affects
ocean - atmosphere exchanges of carbon, biogeochemical cycles, and marine ecosystems.
Using atmospheric general - circulation models, as well as coupled
ocean - atmosphere models, he investigates the interactions between large - scale climate systems such as
ocean and wind currents to understand natural
variability and
how climate responds to human - made forcings.
The first is based on extrapolating seasonal and interannual changes based on precise knowledge of today's state of the atmosphere and
ocean combined with an understanding of
how the various modes of
variability in the
ocean might develop.
How does internal
variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern
Ocean sea ice extent?
Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: «We don't fully understand
how to input things like changes in the
oceans, and because we don't fully understand it you could say that natural
variability is now working to suppress the warming.
Via Grist via Tom Raftery More on What You Need To Know About Arctic Ice 2009 Arctic Summer Sea Ice Minimum Third Lowest on Record - «Well Outside» Natural
Variability Arctic
Ocean Ice - Free in Summer by 2015, New Research Shows - Greenland Ice Sheet Shows Rapid Losses, Too Melting Ice Could Lead to Massive Waves of Climate Refugees
How Will Global Warming Change Our
Oceans?
Svante Henriksson, PhD, Research Scientist I'm studying the
variability of the Indian monsoon from year to year and
how it relates to oscillations of the
ocean.