His role, specifically, is to determine
how uncertainties in the data could affect the simulation of the photochemical processes occurring in Titan's atmosphere.
The best commentary came from John Nielsen - Gammon's new blog where he described very clearly
how the uncertainties in data — both the known unknowns and unknown unknowns — get handled in practice (read that and then come back).
Not exact matches
The key
uncertainty is
how much the
data has been distorted by the fall of China's annual Lunar New Year holidays, which were
in February this year and
in January
in 2012 and which typically see factories shut up shop for two weeks.
Examples of these risks,
uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to the impact of: adverse general economic and related factors, such as fluctuating or increasing levels of unemployment, underemployment and the volatility of fuel prices, declines
in the securities and real estate markets, and perceptions of these conditions that decrease the level of disposable income of consumers or consumer confidence; adverse events impacting the security of travel, such as terrorist acts, armed conflict and threats thereof, acts of piracy, and other international events; the risks and increased costs associated with operating internationally; our expansion into and investments
in new markets; breaches
in data security or other disturbances to our information technology and other networks; the spread of epidemics and viral outbreaks; adverse incidents involving cruise ships; changes
in fuel prices and / or other cruise operating costs; any impairment of our tradenames or goodwill; our hedging strategies; our inability to obtain adequate insurance coverage; our substantial indebtedness, including the ability to raise additional capital to fund our operations, and to generate the necessary amount of cash to service our existing debt; restrictions
in the agreements governing our indebtedness that limit our flexibility
in operating our business; the significant portion of our assets pledged as collateral under our existing debt agreements and the ability of our creditors to accelerate the repayment of our indebtedness; volatility and disruptions
in the global credit and financial markets, which may adversely affect our ability to borrow and could increase our counterparty credit risks, including those under our credit facilities, derivatives, contingent obligations, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees; fluctuations
in foreign currency exchange rates; overcapacity
in key markets or globally; our inability to recruit or retain qualified personnel or the loss of key personnel; future changes relating to
how external distribution channels sell and market our cruises; our reliance on third parties to provide hotel management services to certain ships and certain other services; delays
in our shipbuilding program and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments; future increases
in the price of, or major changes or reduction
in, commercial airline services; seasonal variations
in passenger fare rates and occupancy levels at different times of the year; our ability to keep pace with developments
in technology; amendments to our collective bargaining agreements for crew members and other employee relation issues; the continued availability of attractive port destinations; pending or threatened litigation, investigations and enforcement actions; changes involving the tax and environmental regulatory regimes
in which we operate; and other factors set forth under «Risk Factors»
in our most recently filed Annual Report on Form 10 - K and subsequent filings by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
With the increase
in scientific
data comes a decrease
in uncertainty about
how the universe works.
Given the paucity of hard
data on which to calculate probable costs and benefits,
how can responsible decisions be made
in the midst of this
uncertainty?
«The evolutionary consequences of climate change are one of our greatest areas of
uncertainty because empirical
data addressing this issue are extraordinarily rare; this study is a tremendous step forward
in our understanding of
how climate change can influence evolutionary process and ultimately species biodiversity,» said Ryan Kovach, a University of Montana study co-author.
Co-author Dr Iain Staffell, from the Centre for Environmental Policy, said: «This tool allows us to combat one of the biggest
uncertainties in the future energy system, and use real
data to answer questions such as
how electricity storage could revolutionise the electricity generation sector, or when high - capacity home storage batteries linked to personal solar panels might become cost - effective.»
It is very important that we know
how sensitive our predictions are to any
uncertainty in input
data or parameter values, so we can change values and investigate the impact on the predictions (see below).
HadSST3 not only greatly expands the amount of raw
data processed, it makes some important improvements
in how the
uncertainties are dealt with and has a more Bayesian probabilistic treatment of the necessary bias corrections.
It's the question of
how to blend
data,
uncertainty and values to produce a worldview and way of life
in a time of great change, risk, opportunity and complexity.
``... estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many
uncertainties, from the lack of
data on what ice sheets did
in the past to predict
how they will react to warming, insufficient long - term satellite
data to unpick the effects of natural climate change from that caused by man and a spottiness
in the degree to which places such as Antarctica have warmed....
If she accepts that attribution is amenable to quantitative analysis using some kind of model (doesn't have to be a GCM), I don't get why she doesn't accept that the numbers are going to be different for different time periods and have varying degrees of
uncertainty depending on
how good the forcing
data is and what other factors can be brought
in.
Since you don't seem to know
how meaningless «decadal trends» are, you use the only
data set that gives you what you want and ignore the others, and you act as though there's no
uncertainty in your «trend» estimate, your level of certainty amounts to nothing more than hubris.
In the interview, with Andy Balaskovitz, I described the value of having a public more attuned to
how science works — that new knowledge is what's left over after peers chew on each others»
data and analysis, and that argument and
uncertainty are normal, that science is a journey, not a set of facts:
There were legitimate debates between scientists working
in this field about
how reliable different kinds of proxy
data are and what are the limits, what are the
uncertainties, and then there were the dishonest attacks against the science.
Jane Burston, Head of the Centre for Carbon Measurement at the National Physical Laboratory, spoke to Climate Action about
how the NPL is reducing
uncertainty in climate
data and helping to develop low carbon technologies.
Complex forecasting methods are only accurate when there is little
uncertainty about the
data and the situation (
in this case:
how the climate system works), and causal variables can be forecast accurately.
Independent of physics, logic,
data uncertainties, and such, it is profoundly disturbing to see
how often even simple statistical fundamentals are misused or possibly deliberately abused
in «climate science».
I have frequently expressed
uncertainty, a willingness to adjust my model and openness to alternatives
How about willingness to abandon your «model»
in face of no support [«There is no
data»].
What they should do, I think, is estimate the
uncertainty in the frequency domain, and jitter those spectra and see
how the temperature profiles differ across a collection of jitters from the measured
data.
We have already discussed
how short term analysis of the
data can be misleading, and we have previously commented on the use of the
uncertainty in the ensemble mean being confused with the envelope of possible trajectories (here).