A similar story applies to giant methane belches
changing the climate — as knowledge of the
huge stores of frozen and free methane
in the sea floor was first developed, and the carbon frozen
in Arctic soils, we couldn't quantify the possibility of a large, rapid release.
RealClimate is wonderful, and an excellent source of reliable information.As I've said before, methane is an extremely dangerous component to global warming.Comment # 20 is correct.There is a sharp melting point to frozen methane.A
huge increase
in the release of methane could happen within the next 50 years.At what point
in the Earth's temperature rise and the rise of co2 would a
huge methane melt occur?No one has answered that definitive issue.If I ask you all at what point would
huge amounts of extra methane start melting, i.e at what temperature rise of the ocean near the Artic methane ice deposits would the methane melt, or at what point
in the rise of co2 concentrations
in the atmosphere would the methane melt, I believe that no one could currently tell me the actual answer as to where the sharp melting point exists.Of course, once that tipping point has been reached, and billions of tons of methane outgass from what had been locked
stores of methane, locked away for an eternity, it is exactly the same as the burning of
stored fossil fuels which have been
stored for an eternity as well.And even though methane does not have as long a life as co2, while it is around
in the air it can cause other tipping points, i.e. permafrost melting, to arrive much sooner.I will reiterate what I've said before on this and other sites.Methane is a hugely underreported, underestimated risk.How about RealClimate attempts to model exactly what would happen to other tipping points, such as the melting permafrost, if indeed a
huge increase
in the melting of the methal hydrate ice WERE to occur within the next 50 years.My amateur guess is that the
huge, albeit temporary, increase
in methane over even three or four decades might push other relevent tipping points to arrive much, much, sooner than they normally would, thereby vastly incresing negative feedback mechanisms.We KNOW that quick,
huge,
changes occured
in the Earth's climate
in the past.See other relevent posts
in the past from Realclimate.Climate often does not
change slowly, but undergoes
huge, quick,
changes periodically, due to negative feedbacks accumulating, and tipping the climate to a quick
change.Why should the danger from
huge potential methane releases be vievwed with any less trepidation?