There is a fairly large degree of uncertainty in these figures, primarily because the magnitude of the cooling effect
from human aerosol emissions is not well known.
We have recently discussed several papers which have found substantial global dimming as a result of
increased human aerosol emissions from 1950 to 1980 and 2000 to 2010.
Huber and Knutti (2011) found that human greenhouse gas emissions have caused 66 % more global warming than has been observed since the 1950s, because the cooling effect
of human aerosol emissions have offset about 44 % of that warming.
So Nielsen - Gammon is correct to note that some of the slowed surface temperature warming over the past decade can be attributed to La Niña, although there have been other influences at play as well, such
as human aerosol emissions.
Note that while the BEST approach is based on correlations, they are correlations of variables with known causal relationships (i.e. an increased greenhouse effect is known to cause global warming), although they do not appear to have considered some important influences
like human aerosol emissions or the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Greenhouse gases can be attributed to about 0.9 °C of this warming, but it has been partially offset by about 0.3 °C cooling
from human aerosol emissions.
Huber and Knutti (2011) found that human greenhouse gas emissions have caused 66 % more global warming than has been observed since the 1950s, because the cooling effect
of human aerosol emissions have offset about 44 % of that warming.
If we add in the warming effects of the other long - lived greenhouse gases, the best estimate rises to 1.22 °C surface warming caused by human emissions (we've only observed ~ 0.8 °C warming because much of that has been offset
by human aerosol emissions).
Human aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount of the warming by causing global dimming.
Some question remains as to how much of the temporary slowdown in surface warming is due to
human aerosol emissions, how much due to ENSO, how much due to heat being transferred to the deep oceans, and so forth.
Human aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount of the warming by causing global dimming.
Further, Christy did not remove the effects of
human aerosol emissions, solar activity, or a number of other factors which had a net cooling effect between 1979 and 2010.
Every such attribution study has been consistent in concluding that humans are driving global warming (Figure 5), with greenhouse gases causing more than 100 % of the observed warming because much of that is offset by the cooling effects of
human aerosol emissions, which block sunlight (Figure 6).
The main messages from these two figures are that natural temperature influences can not account for the observed global warming, especially over the past 50 years, and that greenhouse gases have caused more warming than has been observed, meaning that the net non-greenhouse gas effect is a cooling one (mainly from
human aerosol emissions).