Unlike extremely doubtful
human warming influence upon Antarctic glaciers, recent man - made cooling of the political climate is indisputable.
Here's the second (and final) installment from Andrew A. Lacis of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies providing more detail on his view of the evidence showing
a human warming influence on the climate.
It is a system that can amplify either
a human warming influence or a natural one, making the task of disentangling a signal of human influence from other forces exceedingly tough.
One is already playing out on blogs attacking those concerned about the building
human warming influence on climate.
For those out there seeing any talk of
a human warming influence as a hoax, it's also useful to note that this intellectual tussle over climate sensitivity is over how much human - produced greenhouse gases will warm the world, not if they can do so.
Not exact matches
They note past ages that have been equally
warm or
warmer without
human influence, to say nothing of repeating patterns of climate change like ice ages (though I've met one of James Hansen's computer modelers who told me with sincere conviction that there would not be another ice age).
«Because of this and a better understanding of how forcing terms add up, we are able to sum the radiative forcings and, for the first time, come up with the statement that we have very high confidence that
humans have had a
warming influence since preindustrial times.»
While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that
human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on the climate
warming observed since the mid-twentieth century.
These fluctuations superimpose the general global
warming trend since the beginning of industrialization and thus complicate the accurate determination of
human influence on the climate.
Christmas Island's location makes it a model location to study the role of
warming on reefs, but it also has a diverse array of reefs — from ones impacted by
human fishing to ones that are in pristine condition — that make it ideal to see how different
influences play out.
Ultimately, Russell hopes his work will help to predict how the region might be
influenced by
human - forced global
warming.
«
Human influence is so dominant now,» Baker asserts, «that whatever is going to go on in the tropics has much less to do with sea surface temperatures and the earth's orbital parameters and much more to do with deforestation, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and global
warming.»
In its executive summary, the report concludes «it is extremely likely that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
The panel reported that the world is
warming throughout the lower atmosphere, as climate models had predicted, and acknowledged «clear evidence of
human influences on the climate system.»
«This quantitative attribution of
human and natural climate
influences on the IPWP expansion increases our confidence in the understanding of the causes of past changes as well as for projections of future changes under further greenhouse
warming,» commented Seung - Ki Min, a professor with POSTECH's School of Environmental Science and Engineering.
It is very much the mainstream view in the climate research community that you can not explain the
warming of the past few decades without anthropogenic and
human influences on climate.
The study marks the first time that
human influence on the climate has been demonstrated in the water cycle, and outside the bounds of typical physical responses such as
warming deep ocean and sea surface temperatures or diminishing sea ice and snow cover extent.
The
warm conditions of the earth get a big boost from water vapor as well as several other culprits, some of which never existed in the atmosphere prior to
human influence.
For their study, Beck and Sieber selected 19 climate and soil variables that could
influence how
humans use the land, including soil type and precipitation in the coldest and
warmest seasons.
Whether the loss of mass by the glaciers is due to natural variation or is caused by
human -
influenced warming of the oceans is not known for sure.
Nevertheless, the title «Attribution of polar
warming to
human influence» [my emphasis] is a bit misleading.
The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed
warming rates attributable to
human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
By the fifth report in 2013, the IPCC said it was «extremely likely that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.»
As I understand it, the GCR - idea does not deny
human influences on global
warming and does not really provide a good estimate of what the magnitude of GCR
influences might be.
Incidentally, as I see it, your reconstruction of Manns data showing the 15th century to be
warmer than now is even more damming than Manns original construct, as it indicates a gradual decline in global temperatures until 1850, before
human influence reversed that trend.
The ecosystems chapter concludes that, «
Human - induced climate change, in conjunction with other stresses, is exerting major
influences on natural environments and biodiversity, and these
influences are generally expected to grow with increased
warming.»
«The authors clearly demonstrate that a
human influence on wildland fire as a consequence of global
warming isn't just a prediction for the future — it's happening now,» said Kevin Anchukaitis, a University of Arizona scientist who was not involved with the study.
This
human influence is happening very rapidly, is not cyclical, and pushes the climate continually and relentlessly in the single direction of
warming.
... Discernible
human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean
warming, continental - average temperatures, temperature extremes, and wind patterns The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions
The report claims 95 % confidence that «
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century» How is this value calculated, especially since there is a great discrepancy between the models and observed temperatures, that this tome completely fails to account for.
Newly published research in «PNAS» identifies what authors call a «vertical
human fingerprint» in satellite - based estimates of atmospheric temperature changes, adding still more to confidence levels about
human influences in
warming.
By its placement in the film, it appears that I am saying that since carbon dioxide exists in the ocean in such large quantities,
human influence must not be very important — diametrically opposite to the point I was making — which is that global
warming is both real and threatening in many different ways, some unexpected.
Please also tell us what «
human influence» comprises of and the relative proportions of the
warming seen and how this differs from the
warming seen in the instrument record from the 1880s to the 1940s.
«We show that at the present - day
warming of 0.85 °C about 18 % of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from
human influence,» the research team said.
They can cite the IPCC: «It is extremely likely that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.»
Given that many claim
humans are
influencing global
warming and the number of people that now are on the planet I do not know how a thinking person can not see that most of us have to change our focus on consuming animal products.
Flannery and other scientific writers have identified 1976 as the year when the earth's climate took a serious turn under specifically
human influences, when the ocean's surface waters
warmed and its salt content fell.
The problems that cause global
warming are divided into two categories include natural and
human influences of global
warming.
Human influence has been detected in
warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes.
Unfortunately for policymakers and the public, while the basic science pointing to a rising
human influence on climate is clear, many of the most important questions will remain surrounded by deep complexity and uncertainty for a long time to come: the pace at which seas will rise, the extent of
warming from a certain buildup of greenhouse gases (climate sensitivity), the impact on hurricanes, the particular effects in particular places (what global
warming means for Addis Ababa or Atlanta).
This whole argument is just one big RED HERRING in the context of the scientific consensus that
humans are
influencing the climate and making it
warmer
It is extremely likely that
human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed
warming since the mid-20th century.
The estimated size of and uncertainty in current observed
warming rates attributable to
human influence thus provides a relatively model - independent estimate of uncertainty in multi-decade projections under most scenarios.
My answer — On the basis of billions of years of historical global
warming periods, some of which happened rapidly and without any
human influence whatsoever — and whose specific causes remain a mystery.
The evidence that global
warming is occurring, and furthermore is due in large part to
human influences (though perhaps other factors also play a role), is much stronger than the evidence I have personally seen that Inhofe exists.
Global
Warming vs Climate Change,» an interesting new study of Americans» perceptions of the two dominant shorthand phrases used to describe the building
human influence on the climate system.
I've been criticized by some environmentalists in recent years for writing that the long - term picture (more CO2 =
warmer world = less ice = higher seas and lots of climatic and ecological changes) is the only aspect of
human - caused global
warming that is solidly established, and that efforts to link dramatic weather - related events to the
human influence on climate could backfire should nature wiggle the other way for awhile.
Of course, there are quite a few experts in climate science and policy who warn that debating whether the research pointing to a disruptive
human climate
influence is, or is not, settled is a complete distraction from the reality that the basics are not in dispute (more CO2 =
warming world = rising seas and lots of changing climate patterns).
Weart is best known to Dot Earth regulars as the author of the essential guide to 100 years of research pointing to a
human influence on climate, «The Discovery of Global
Warming» (here's my 2003 review of that book for The Times).
The journal Science has published a letter signed by 255 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 11 Nobel laureates, that pushes back sharply after months of assaults on evidence pointing to a growing and disruptive
human influence on the climate and some of the researchers who've done important work on global
warming.