I get to understand why Global Warming is not seriously discussed amongst the populace in general, by watching many TV Meteorologists, who utterly confuse the matter, who also seem to be limited by the range of their Doppler radars, seldom explain anything more than the latest extreme
Hurricane activity as the result of a «cycle».
ABC also reported increased
hurricane activity as if it were an established scientific fact that there were now more hurricanes and that they were caused by global warming.
There is evidence suggesting a human contribution to recent changes in
hurricane activity as well as in storms outside the tropics, though a confident assessment will require further study.
Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic
hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency).
Not exact matches
The impact of the catastrophic
hurricane activity that hit the US during the reporting period will also give investors a higher tolerance for a profit growth slowdown, which could be viewed
as temporary, and therefore have a limited effect, Goldman said.
The storm
activity comes after
Hurricane Harvey claimed about 60 lives and caused property damage estimated at
as much
as $ 180 billion in Texas and Louisiana.
The
hurricane disruptions were seen
as minor in terms of their impact on overall
activity.
St. John's, Antigua — The island of Antigua is open for business
as normal
activity returned after a brushing from
Hurricane Irma.
«Every week is unique, and pastors are faced with the need to get insight from the Spirit of God to understand the mood and emotional state of the congregants,» said Ríos, citing a rise in depression and marital issues among
hurricane victims,
as well
as concerns over suicide rates and violent criminal
activity in the long recovery period.
Hurricane Sandy and its recovery could cost New York
as much
as $ 18 billion in economic
activity, Comptroller Tom DiNapoli said today.
ALBANY — One hundred New York state troopers will be deputized to carry out law enforcement
activities in Puerto Rico
as Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Wednesday authorized sending more resources to the
hurricane - ravaged island.
One hundred New York state troopers will be deputized to carry out law enforcement
activities in Puerto Rico
as Gov. Andrew Cuomo authorized sending more resources to the
hurricane - ravaged island.
The
hurricane is spinning over waters that have warmed in the last century
as a result of human
activity.
«It is difficult to use climate models to study
hurricane activity, and so studies such
as ours, which produced a record of storms under different climate conditions, are important for our understanding of future storm
activity,» Denniston said.
The article, «Extreme rainfall
activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño / Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia,» presents a precisely dated stalagmite record of cave flooding events that are tied to tropical cyclones, which include storms such
as hurricanes and typhoons.
She notes that a reliable proxy record for
hurricanes would be very useful
as a way of evaluating models of storm
activity.
Eight of the last 10 years have been very active — in fact, we've never had
as much
activity on the records, going back to about 1870 or so,
as in the past 10 years — and yet we went from 1992 until last year with no
hurricanes coming through Florida.
The new metric may help engineers determine how the shape of a delta, such
as the Mississippi's, may shift in response to engineered structures such
as dams and levees, and environmental changes, such
as hurricane activity and sea - level rise.
By monitoring, understanding, and predicting these climate patterns, forecasters can often make a confident outlook of the upcoming
hurricane activity for the season
as a whole.
«Our findings,» write the authors, «suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such
as peaks in
hurricane activity and Sahel drought.»
NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the
hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to
as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of
activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.
Main:
Hurricane experience
as part of Global Hazards unit of work with Tweet
activity.
Unused portions of Packages (meals and / or
activities etc.) / Trips shortened
as a result of or due, but not limited, to airline delays, strikes, world events, no - shows, premature departures, personal issues, inclement weather and / or acts of God, including
hurricanes are NON-refundable and NON-transferable.
We can expect ongoing high levels of
hurricane activity — and very importantly high levels of
hurricane landfalls —
as long
as the active era continues.»
Finally — it is not remotely necessary for a season to be
as intense
as 2005 in order for it to be very intense — after, all, 2004 (15 tropical storms, 9
hurricanes, 6 major
hurricanes) had over 150 % of the
activity of an average season, yet was much less active than 2005 (28 tropical and subtropical storms, 15
hurricanes and 7 major
hurricanes.)
A recent paper by Vecchi and Soden (preprint) published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has been widely touted in the news (and some egregiously bad editorials), and the blogosphere
as suggesting that increased vertical wind shear associated with tropical circulation changes may offset any tendencies for increased
hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic due to warming oceans.
By Rasmus Benestad & Michael Mann Just
as Typhoon Nargis has reminded us of the destructive power of tropical cyclones (with its horrible death toll in Burma — around 100,000 according to the UN), a new paper by Knutson et al in the latest issue of the journal Nature Geosciences purports to project a reduction in Atlantic
hurricane activity (principally the «frequency» but also integrated measures of powerfulness).
Ok, now the next problem seems to be that the deep ocean would come into the act, and
as the surface temperature began to catch up,
as with ocean surface temperature, we should then expect significant
hurricane activity, and otherwise increased storm conditions.
Some have even gone so far
as to state that this study proves that recent trends in
hurricane activity are part of a natural cycle.
As we have also pointed out in previous posts, we can indeed draw some important conclusions about the links between
hurricane activity and global warming in a statistical sense.
The link between SSTs and
hurricane activity is complex and subject to other variables such
as the moisture content of the atmosphere (which is linked to SSTs) and wind shear aloft.
With respect to the headline «Hurricanes Growing More Fierce Over Past 30 Years», that is misleading
as 30 years ago there was SST cooling and the
hurricane activity had decreased.
Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic
hurricane activity has not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles
as documented here and elsewhere.
Just wondering, does the relationship between
hurricane and cyclone
activity and global warming have
as good a correlation
as between tree rings and instrumented temperature readings?
• Anyone who doubts that the threat of large
hurricanes is still being used
as part of global warming campaigns should look no further than the energy and climate platform of a presidential candidate [pdf alert], who writes, «Global warming is real, is happening now and is the result of human
activities.
As to the second the answer is probably no specifically referring to
hurricane activity mentioned by McHugh the actual frequency of severe
hurricanes is less now than it has been in the past: Only 4 «highest category» storms have occurred in the last 10 years!
The one that is cited most frequently and authoritatively
as the cause of the increasing
hurricane activity is the AMO (for example, by William Gray, Phil Klotzbach, and Roger Pielke Jr. — see Storm frenzy is not an anomaly, but a phase, Sept 13 2005)
As another
hurricane season comes to a close with no serious
activity to date, and even if there were some in the near future, a very tame year, the data piles up.
Conversely, due to well - researched upper - atmospheric flow (e.g. vertical shear) configurations favorable to Atlantic
hurricane development and intensification, La Nina falls tend to favor very active seasons in the Atlantic (El Nino years are the converse, with must less
activity,
as forecast by Gray and NOAA for 2009).
Humans don't just have to worry about the greenhouse - emissions impacts that get nearly all of the attention, such
as the hotly debated and hard - to - predict effects on
hurricane activity in the United States.
My understanding of the
hurricane debate is
as follows: SST's ought to rise with global warming and all else equal that ought to mean greater
hurricane reach /
activity, but we don't really understand the «all else» yet.
This raises the prospect that,
as hurricane activity increases for whatever reason, the threat of wildfires in the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions could grow
as the climate continues to warm, some researchers say.
All the evidence such
as the recent lull in Atlantic
hurricane activity supports their claims.
The changing phases of Atlantic
hurricane activity are not completely understood; but there appears to be a link to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, the global pattern of ocean currents which in western Europe appears
as the Gulf Stream.
In addition, a paper published just last month, used records of storm surges going back to 1923
as a measure of
hurricane activity.
Nearly one year after
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic
Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm
activity,
as the seasonal
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its inactivity.
The stadium wave holds promise in putting into perspective numerous observations of climate behavior, such
as regional patterns of decadal variability in drought and
hurricane activity, the researchers say, but a complete understanding of past climate variability and projections of future climate change requires integrating the stadium - wave signal with external climate forcing from the sun, volcanoes and anthropogenic forcing.
... incomplete and misleading because it 1) omits any mention of several of the most important aspects of the potential relationships between
hurricanes and global warming, including rainfall, sea level, and storm surge; 2) leaves the impression that there is no significant connection between recent climate change caused by human
activities and
hurricane characteristics and impacts; and 3) does not take full account of the significance of recently identified trends and variations in tropical storms in causing impacts
as compared to increasing societal vulnerability.
«
As we enter this extended period of active
hurricane activity, it is important for our capital markets to contain such risk.
There has been a substantial increase in most measures of Atlantic
hurricane activity since the early 1980s, the period during which high quality satellite data are available.20, 21,22 These include measures of intensity, frequency, and duration
as well
as the number of strongest (Category 4 and 5) storms.