Not exact matches
FAA Short Term Reauthorization, Flood Insurance and
Hurricane Tax Adjustments — Vote Passed (264 - 155, 14
Not Voting) The House passed the bill that would extend through March 31, 2018, various expiring authorities, programs and
activities for the Federal Aviation Administration.
The second reason, he explained, stems from odd swings in Atlantic
hurricane activity that scientists still don't understand.
«We've been in this multi-decadal pattern of
activity but it just didn't happen this year,» Masters said, referring to the prolonged period of increased
hurricane activity that began in 1995.
The researchers are
not the first to examine a potential link between
hurricanes and seismic
activity.
That doesn't mean more
hurricanes everywhere, though: While El Niño tends to boost
activity in the Pacific Ocean, it clamps down on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic.
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Scientists thought a prolonged drop in
hurricane activity helped push the region into drought from 800 to 950 A.D., when the Mayan civilization collapsed, but recent research shows that might
not be the case.
According to the most recent evidence, there does
not seem to be any sort of trend toward more
hurricane activity and the signal for a possible increase in intensity is weak.
Science tells us climate change has
not had a discernible impact on global
hurricane activity.
If one examines our model's control simulations for the 1982 - 2006 period, which show a trend towards increasing
hurricane activity over this period, and correlates this
activity with SST in the Main Development Region, and then tries to use this correlation to predict the 21st century behavior of the model, it clearly doesn't work.
The abnormally high Atlantic
hurricane activity of the last 10 - 15 years may or may
not be due to global warming, but the less - than - 2005
activity of the 2006 - 8 Atlantic
hurricane seasons does
not change the fact that the last 10 - 15 years have seen extra-ordinary
hurricane activity.
Finally — it is
not remotely necessary for a season to be as intense as 2005 in order for it to be very intense — after, all, 2004 (15 tropical storms, 9
hurricanes, 6 major
hurricanes) had over 150 % of the
activity of an average season, yet was much less active than 2005 (28 tropical and subtropical storms, 15
hurricanes and 7 major
hurricanes.)
By Gray's very clearly articulated reasoning, there should have been a downturn,
not the observed upturn in major Atlantic
hurricane activity over the past several decades (in the absence of other — including anthropogenic — influences on tropical Atlantic climate) if Bryden et al.'s results are correct.
NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic
hurricane activity since 1995, and is
not related to greenhouse warming.»
According to Kerry Emanuel of MIT while overall cycone
activity hasn't increased, (includes the Pacific) North Atlantic
Hurricane activity has and because of heating of the water via global warming.
BTW, am I misremembering or has Emanuel said here for the first time that there's now a clear connection between global warming and
hurricane activity (albeit
not yet detectable in the North Atlantic basin when taken on its own)?
Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic
hurricane activity has
not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles as documented here and elsewhere.
We find that a major result of these papers — that
hurricane activity is increasing in most ocean basins — is
not reproducible, due probably to the quality of the data that was originally used to establish this claim.
Over the «Main Development Region» for Atlantic
hurricanes, the results are mixed and, to our eyes at least (see Figure 2), don't provide a compelling argument for
hurricane activity reductions.
If we're considering the risk of
hurricane damages, and
not just overall basin
activity, then the effect of increased vertical wind shear would seem to be (at least) twofold — it
not only reduces potential intensity, but it also influences the steering of
hurricanes (since
hurricanes are basically steered by the background flow plus a beta drift).
Although they do
not attempt to calculate the proportion of total Atlantic
activity, they were able reconstruct a remarkably accurate picture of the
hurricanes that have passed over or within 400 km of the site in southern Georgia since 1770.
But the new work did seem a lot more scientifically rigorous than most previous arguments against a link between global warming and
hurricanes; which simply state we don't know enough about past
hurricane activity to determine whether modern
hurricane activity is unprecedented.
The one that is cited most frequently and authoritatively as the cause of the increasing
hurricane activity is the AMO (for example, by William Gray, Phil Klotzbach, and Roger Pielke Jr. — see Storm frenzy is
not an anomaly, but a phase, Sept 13 2005)
However, it don't agree that it is a definitive statement on the lack of a link between recent
hurricane activity and anthropogenic global warming.
I also tried to find an estimate of the net effect of
hurricane activity on upper ocean heat content; there are some reports on individual
hurricanes (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/pubs/Opal.pdf) but I couldn't find any global estimates.
Is the rather definitive statement that «The increased
activity since 1995 is due to natural fluctuations (and) cycles of
hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it and
not enhanced substantially by global warming» at all supportable?
Your statement here that «it is
not possible for us to make any conclusions about effects of AGW on
hurricane activity» is simply silly.
Hence it is
not possible for us to make any conclusions about effects of AGW on
hurricane activity.
The article does
not try and link SST with
hurricane activity.
Humans don't just have to worry about the greenhouse - emissions impacts that get nearly all of the attention, such as the hotly debated and hard - to - predict effects on
hurricane activity in the United States.
My understanding of the
hurricane debate is as follows: SST's ought to rise with global warming and all else equal that ought to mean greater
hurricane reach /
activity, but we don't really understand the «all else» yet.
In a year that brought the United States record - breaking wildfire
activity, an ongoing drought, and
Hurricane Sandy, perhaps these announcements aren't surprising.
The changing phases of Atlantic
hurricane activity are
not completely understood; but there appears to be a link to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, the global pattern of ocean currents which in western Europe appears as the Gulf Stream.
Nearly one year after
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Sandy ravaged the East Coast, the 2013 Atlantic
Hurricane Season has not produced a single land - falling hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
Hurricane Season has
not produced a single land - falling
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm activity, as the seasonal hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane in the U.S. Instead of having above - average storm
activity, as the seasonal
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its in
hurricane outlooks unanimously called for, the season has been quiet — notable for its inactivity.
Landsea, a
hurricane expert, had said that recent
hurricane activity had
not been made more severe by «global warming.»
«The IPCC hierarchy had its mind made up years ago to make every attempt possible to link rising levels of CO2 with increases in global
hurricane intensity and frequency... Input from skeptics or any hypothesis or data that did
not link rises in CO2 to increases in tropical cyclone
activity was to be avoided, suppressed, or rejected.»
... incomplete and misleading because it 1) omits any mention of several of the most important aspects of the potential relationships between
hurricanes and global warming, including rainfall, sea level, and storm surge; 2) leaves the impression that there is no significant connection between recent climate change caused by human
activities and
hurricane characteristics and impacts; and 3) does
not take full account of the significance of recently identified trends and variations in tropical storms in causing impacts as compared to increasing societal vulnerability.
The «smartest people in the world» also said Iraq had WMDs, never trust the smartest people when billions of dollars is at stake, and all that money is flowing to these people in the form of grant money, research grants, carbon credits, etc. and you said A. Climate Change,
not A.GWwarming so I guess global cooling will soon be blamed on A.
activity along with
hurricanes and droughts.
The authors, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, say their findings do
not necessarily conflict with recent papers asserting a link between the region's
hurricane activity and human - caused warming of the climate and seas.
Mr. Laborde was asked, Did the White House and the Department of Commerce
not want scientists who believed that climate change was increasing
hurricane activity talking with the press?
Don't forget that Judith Curry was one of the «scientists» claiming a connection between increased
hurricane activity and global warming with less than adequate data (see discussions on this blog).
The senders and recipients of the leaked CRU emails constitute a cast list of the IPCC's scientific elite, including
not just the «Hockey Team», such as Dr Mann himself, Dr Jones and his CRU colleague Keith Briffa, but Ben Santer, responsible for a highly controversial rewriting of key passages in the IPCC's 1995 report; Kevin Trenberth, who similarly controversially pushed the IPCC into scaremongering over
hurricane activity; and Gavin Schmidt, right - hand man to Al Gore's ally Dr James Hansen, whose own GISS record of surface temperature data is second in importance only to that of the CRU itself.
«My interaction (over the years) with a broad segment of AMS members (that I have met as a result of my seasonal
hurricane forecasting and other
activities) who have spent a sizable portion of their careers down in the meteorological trenches of observations and forecasting, have indicated that a majority of them do
not agree that humans are the primary cause of global warming.
«The environmental changes found here do
not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic
hurricane activity during the 21st century,» said Brian Soden, Rosenstiel School associate professor of meteorology and physical oceanography and the paper's co-author.
Here's another example of why the obvious ain't necessarily so: Modiki El Niños and Atlantic
hurricane activity And hot may also be
not.
Landsea said he was gravely concerned that since Trenberth had already «come to the conclusion that global warming has altered
hurricane activity,» and since Trenberth would be overseeing the
hurricane section in the Climate Bible, «it may
not be possible for the IPCC process to proceed objectively.»
But
hurricane activity varies so much from decade to decade that «
not a single person in my field thinks you can see the signal.»
Since this index represents a continuous spectrum of both system duration and intensity, it does
not suffer as much from the discontinuities inherent in more widely used measures of
activity such as the number of tropical storms,
hurricanes or major
hurricanes.
«The increased
activity since 1995 is due to natural fluctuations (and) cycles of
hurricane activity driven by the Atlantic Ocean itself along with the atmosphere above it and
not enhanced substantially by global warming,» he testified.