Recent research in this area suggests that there has been an increase in intense
hurricane activity over the past 40 years.
In addition, it has been well - documented that the measured global warming of about 0.5 C during the 25 - year period of 1970 - 1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin
hurricane activity over this quarter - century period.»
If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic
hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Niño events greatly reduces the number and intensity of these storms.»
This is what is being used to deduce the cyclical nature of
hurricane activity over the past hundreds of years.
By Gray's very clearly articulated reasoning, there should have been a downturn, not the observed upturn in major Atlantic
hurricane activity over the past several decades (in the absence of other — including anthropogenic — influences on tropical Atlantic climate) if Bryden et al.'s results are correct.
If one examines our model's control simulations for the 1982 - 2006 period, which show a trend towards increasing
hurricane activity over this period, and correlates this activity with SST in the Main Development Region, and then tries to use this correlation to predict the 21st century behavior of the model, it clearly doesn't work.
Not exact matches
«Every week is unique, and pastors are faced with the need to get insight from the Spirit of God to understand the mood and emotional state of the congregants,» said Ríos, citing a rise in depression and marital issues among
hurricane victims, as well as concerns
over suicide rates and violent criminal
activity in the long recovery period.
The
hurricane is spinning
over waters that have warmed in the last century as a result of human
activity.
The article, «Extreme rainfall
activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño / Southern Oscillation
over the last two millennia,» presents a precisely dated stalagmite record of cave flooding events that are tied to tropical cyclones, which include storms such as
hurricanes and typhoons.
Over the Atlantic basin, the amplified trough is associated with stronger upper - level westerly winds and stronger lower - level easterly trade winds, both of which increase the vertical wind shear and suppress
hurricane activity.
Finally — it is not remotely necessary for a season to be as intense as 2005 in order for it to be very intense — after, all, 2004 (15 tropical storms, 9
hurricanes, 6 major
hurricanes) had
over 150 % of the
activity of an average season, yet was much less active than 2005 (28 tropical and subtropical storms, 15
hurricanes and 7 major
hurricanes.)
Roughly a year ago, we summarized the state of play in the ongoing scientific debate
over the role of anthropogenic climate change in the observed trends in
hurricane activity.
Several studies have shown that
hurricane activity is generally reduced during years when there is a thick aerosol haze
over the subtropical Atlantic.
With respect to the headline «Hurricanes Growing More Fierce
Over Past 30 Years», that is misleading as 30 years ago there was SST cooling and the
hurricane activity had decreased.
Mooney describes the debate
over the role of natural vs. anthropogenic factors in observed tropical warming trends that have been related to increased
hurricane activity, and there is a fair amount of discussion of the partisanship that high - level NOAA administrators have apparently taken in this debate.
Tropical North Atlantic SST has exhibited a warming trend of ~ 0.3 °C
over the last 100 years; whereas Atlantic
hurricane activity has not exhibited trendlike variability, but rather distinct multidecadal cycles as documented here and elsewhere.
Over the «Main Development Region» for Atlantic
hurricanes, the results are mixed and, to our eyes at least (see Figure 2), don't provide a compelling argument for
hurricane activity reductions.
Could the intense
hurricane activity of 2004 and 2005 explain the reduction in oceanic heat content
over the 2003 to 2005 period?
Although they do not attempt to calculate the proportion of total Atlantic
activity, they were able reconstruct a remarkably accurate picture of the
hurricanes that have passed
over or within 400 km of the site in southern Georgia since 1770.
What is fairly hypocritical is to publicly claim that the data
over the past few centuries is good enough to support this AMO explanation for
hurricane activity, while at the same time claiming that the data is too poor to produce a statistically relevant trend
over the past few decades.
There is also strong disagreement between researchers
over the accuracy of claims that
hurricane activity has peaked
over the past ten years.
Despite the absence of warming in actual measured temperature records
over the last 16 years, and near - record lows in
hurricane and tornado
activity, they still cry «wolf» repeatedly and try to connect every unusual or «extreme» weather event to human emissions of plant - fertilizing carbon dioxide.
The senders and recipients of the leaked CRU emails constitute a cast list of the IPCC's scientific elite, including not just the «Hockey Team», such as Dr Mann himself, Dr Jones and his CRU colleague Keith Briffa, but Ben Santer, responsible for a highly controversial rewriting of key passages in the IPCC's 1995 report; Kevin Trenberth, who similarly controversially pushed the IPCC into scaremongering
over hurricane activity; and Gavin Schmidt, right - hand man to Al Gore's ally Dr James Hansen, whose own GISS record of surface temperature data is second in importance only to that of the CRU itself.
They found that averaged sea surface temperatures
over the MDR are the best predictor of Atlantic cyclone
activity, followed by global average surface temperature, with MDR warming relative to the tropics being the worst predictor of
hurricane activity (Figure 1).
«My interaction (
over the years) with a broad segment of AMS members (that I have met as a result of my seasonal
hurricane forecasting and other
activities) who have spent a sizable portion of their careers down in the meteorological trenches of observations and forecasting, have indicated that a majority of them do not agree that humans are the primary cause of global warming.
Such decadal temperature fluctuations in the SPNA are strongly correlated with other components of the climate system, for example, Atlantic
hurricane activity, North American and European river flow, and rainfall
over the African Sahel and northeast Brazil.
Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic
hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency).
For example, there is a clear upward trend in overall North Atlantic
hurricane activity by virtually all metrics,
over the past 30 years or so, though the cause of this is still uncertain.
The LML sedimentary record provides a well - controlled and annually - resolved record of category 2 — 3
hurricane activity in the Boston area
over the last millennium.
And that sea temperature graph does seem to indicate a cycle, but alas it fails to connect with
Hurricane activity, such as Andrew, born during the coldest SST average in the past 20 years, surely Andrew didn't gain strength
over 27 C seas?
In contrast to strong sea surface temperature control on basin counts, unpredictable internal variability in track density is strong
over the Gulf Coast and US East Coast - indicating that prediction of regional cyclone
activity, especially landfall
hurricanes, is challenging.
The National Weather Service
Hurricane Center recently released an update on hurricane Emily indicating that she's having trouble maintaining activity over the mountains of Hispaniola and may soon be downgraded to a tropical storm v
Hurricane Center recently released an update on
hurricane Emily indicating that she's having trouble maintaining activity over the mountains of Hispaniola and may soon be downgraded to a tropical storm v
hurricane Emily indicating that she's having trouble maintaining
activity over the mountains of Hispaniola and may soon be downgraded to a tropical storm very soon.
As the
hurricane season comes to a close, TripAssure looks back at the storm
activity over the year and offers travel protection solutions for those bound for the areas that have been most impacted.
The United States economy has displayed a powerful resiliency
over the last several years, with home sales hitting records and commercial
activity reaching robust levels despite a steady stream of big shocks like
hurricanes Katrina and Rita.