NOAA has issued its annual forecast for the
hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is
varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of
activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.