«The president just stripped the Department of Homeland Security of its leader, was blasted by the outgoing head of
hurricane forecasting for how his budget cuts could set back this work, and lacks any experience (as a senator or governor) with navigating a difficult disaster response.
This is why NOAA does not make
hurricane forecasts for individual months of the season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its initial
hurricane forecast for the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, predicting an «active to extremely active» hurricane season.
But
a hurricane forecast for a month from now?
Not exact matches
The National
Hurricane Center,
for example, relies on the «cone of uncertainty» which generates a five - day
forecast.
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Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's
Hurricane Irene, but final totals will be hard to come by
for some time because of the scale of the disaster, catastrophe
forecasting companies said on Tuesday.
For instance, before the 2005
hurricane season, a Bermuda cat - bond hedge fund called Nephila found a team of oceanographers in Rhode Island called Accurate Environmental
Forecasting, whose
forecasts of
hurricane seasons had been surprisingly good.
«Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major
hurricane status by Thursday,» said the NHC in its latest advisory, which also called
for «catastrophic flash flooding» in parts of Puerto Rico.
The best historical analogue
for a
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity forecast for Irma may be Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity
forecast for Irma may be
Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.
If you're currently pregnant and nearing your due date, you may be understandably concerned about the upcoming
forecast for Hurricane Irma's path towards North Carolina.
The so - called «Spaghetti model» from the European Centre
for Medium - Range Weather
Forecasts shows a northerly path moving up East Coast
for Hurricane Irma.
The National
Hurricane Center in Miami has generated a
forecast track
for Hurricane Joaquin that closely follows the path Superstorm Sandy took, raising a New York City strike higher on the list of possibilities.
«Interpreting
hurricane forecast displays can be difficult
for general public: Two commonly used methods are often misunderstood by novice viewers.»
«There are pros and cons
for each method of showing
hurricane forecasts.
NOAA would receive a total of $ 120.9 million
for hurricane research efforts including mapping and charting, and
hurricane intensity and flood
forecasting.
Six to 10 of those storms are likely to reach
hurricane strength, the agency said in its initial
forecast for the 2011 storm season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 1.
Scientists working to improve storm intensity
forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a
hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities
for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.
Instead, most modelers accommodate the inevitable uncertainties by averaging over many runs of each scenario and displaying a likely range of outcomes, much like landfall
forecasts for hurricanes.
Much of our understanding of evacuation decisions comes from
hurricanes, which usually have a long warning time, can be reasonably
forecasted, and
for which evacuation is the best choice.
Gray's team will come out with its latest
forecast for this year's
hurricane season at the end of this week, having previously predicted 17 storms this season.
This information collaboration is vital to scientific understanding of the atmosphere and the oceans, as well as essential
for accurate
forecasts and timely warnings of
hurricanes, typhoons, and other severe weather.
Powerful
hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground
for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by improving
forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes in the intensity of storm winds.
Researchers still don't fully understand the small but important shifts in storm dynamics that trigger a tornado or
hurricane,
for instance, and they can't
forecast a
hurricane's intensity.
«We believe this first study of rogue waves occurring over space and time during
hurricanes will help improve real - time
forecasting for shipping companies and other organizations that need to understand the risk of extreme events in the oceans.»
The 2016 NOAA
forecast calls
for a total of 10 to 16 named storms, including both tropical storms and
hurricanes.
For the eastern Pacific, NOAA is
forecasting 13 to 20 named storms, including six to 11
hurricanes, of which three to six are expected to be major
hurricanes.
Tools
for forecasting extreme weather have advanced in recent decades, but researchers and engineers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are working to enhance radars, satellites and supercomputers to further lengthen warning times
for tornadoes and thunderstorms and to better determine
hurricane intensity and
forecast floods.
Without more detailed satellite observations, extending the range of accurate weather
forecasts — especially
for such extreme events as
hurricanes — would be severely restricted.
The
forecast is currently
for 11 to 17 storms to form, of which five to nine are expected to become
hurricanes, and two to four major
hurricanes
«Our study is important because tropical cyclone intensity
forecasts for several past
hurricanes over the Caribbean Sea have under - predicted rapid intensification events over warm oceanic features,» said Johna Rudzin, a PhD student at the UM Rosenstiel School and lead author of the study.
In the 25 years since
Hurricane Andrew devastated southeastern Florida, the 3 - day track
forecast for hurricanes has improved by 65 percent, she said.
The
forecast is currently
for 11 to 17 named storms to form, of which five to nine are expected to become
hurricanes, and two to four major
hurricanes.
During Thursday's press conference, officials also touted the updated models and tools they have to produce better
forecasts for individual storms, part of a concerted effort that has greatly improved
hurricane forecasts over the past couple of decades.
So he sexes up his narrative by presenting it as a battle between the «short, professorial looking» Emanuel, a «nuanced and sophisticated» man who talks in complete sentences, and the obdurate William Gray of Colorado State University, «a towering figure of American
hurricane science,» who has
for many years produced remarkably accurate
forecasts of the upcoming Atlantic
hurricane season and who repeatedly and loudly denies — in congressional hearings and everywhere else — that humans have any role in climate change.
NOAA's latest
forecasts warn of the potential
for hurricane - force winds from the northern Delmarva Peninsula to Cape Cod, Mass., and well inland, with rainfall totals topping 12 inches in some areas.
More than 13 years in the making, the center is designed to be the U.S. government's nerve center
for a range of activities, including predicting
hurricane tracks and
forecasting ocean currents.
Scientists around the globe turn to the EOS satellite data
for purposes as diverse as wildfire tracking, prioritizing land
for conservation, and
forecasting hurricanes.
Phil Klotzbach and William Gray reduced their tropical
forecast, now calling
for only two
hurricanes.
NOAA has issued its annual
forecast for the
hurricane season, along with its now - standard explanation that there is a natural cycle of multidecadal (40 - 60 year) length in the North Atlantic circulation (often referred to as the «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» — see Figure), that is varying the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones, and that the present high level of activity is due to a concurrent positive peak in this oscillation.
Building on that information with weekly and even hourly weather
forecasts can help meteorologists and disaster managers plan ahead
for floods,
hurricanes, droughts or whatever else may come their way.
On Friday morning, the National
Hurricane Center
forecast indicated 50 percent or greater odds
for tropical storm - force winds — surface winds greater than 39 mph — from Georgia to the eastern edge of Long Island.
The Weather Channel and provide a national and local weather
forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and
hurricane coverage Eric Edwards, Actor: Dangerous Stuff.
The Weather Channel and provide a national and local weather
forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and
hurricane coverage Rachel Ryan, Actress: Rearing Rachel.
Having holidayed in Ricky's homeland of The Weather Channel and provide a national and local weather
forecast for cities, as well as weather radar, report and
hurricane coverage
Be prepared
for one category higher than the one being
forecast, because
hurricanes often increase in strength just before making landfall.
Anyone planning a trip to the Bahamas should keep an eye on
forecasts for Hurricane José, as its path could potentially veer toward the Caribbean archipelago.
If you're currently pregnant and nearing your due date, you may be understandably concerned about the upcoming
forecast for Hurricane Irma's path towards North Carolina.
In fact, with a very uncertain
forecast for Hurricane Hermine we cancelled all of our Labor Day weekend surf lessons.
Using «weather» (
hurricane season
forecasts,
for example) to demonstrate «climate change» can backfire, and I believe it has in this specific instance.