Sentences with phrase «hurricane forecasting model»

So far, these early results showed that physical conditions where the air and the ocean interact must be a vital part of any successful hurricane forecasting model and would help explain, and predict, how a storm might intensify as it moves through across the water based on the physical stress at the ocean's surface.

Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrina's path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1).

The physical link between SST and precipitation for any individual hurricane is not controversial, it is routinely exploited in the hurricane forecast models used by the national hurricane center.

Not exact matches

Model forecast wind gusts are consistent w / Category 4 hurricane up entire Florida peninsula... NWS forecasts have been nearly same.

UAlbany researchers are helping the National Hurricane Center track Hurricane Irma and are creating forecast models to try and determine where the superstorm could make landfall.

The so - called «Spaghetti model» from the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts shows a northerly path moving up East Coast for Hurricane Irma.

And that means more numerous and stronger hurricanes in the foreseeable future, whether the forecast is from a computer model or a meteorologist's instincts.

But in the big picture, hurricane models adeptly forecasted Irma's ultimate path to the Florida Keys nearly a week before it arrived there, says Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University at Albany in New York.

Their data will be used in computer models to improve weather forecasts, including hurricane tracks and intensities, severe thunderstorms and floods.

Another model replaces the retiring Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model after 22 years, and it also improves track and intensity forecmodel replaces the retiring Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model after 22 years, and it also improves track and intensity forecModel after 22 years, and it also improves track and intensity forecasts.

During the press conference, Mary Erickson, deputy director of National Weather Service, touted the increased accuracy of hurricane forecasts resulting from investments into improving models.

During Thursday's press conference, officials also touted the updated models and tools they have to produce better forecasts for individual storms, part of a concerted effort that has greatly improved hurricane forecasts over the past couple of decades.

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-- Kerry Emanuel, who has been studying hurricanes and climate change for decades, has a great page on his Web site at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology consolidating the many competing computer model runs aiming to forecast the strength and track of tropical storms.

2) As with some previous potent winter storms and hurricanes (including Sandy), there's been a consistent focus on the computer model of the European Center for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, for short) as the best at getting details like snowfall amounts right.

Meanwhile, high - resolution hurricane models can forecast the growth and path of tropical storms, but would require much greater computer power or eons of time to simulate the large samples of storms required for climate - change studies.

AER scientists have developed techniques to process an ensemble of over fifty tropical cyclone track forecasts from all leading US and international hurricane modeling centers.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts storm surge using the SLOSH model, which is an abbreviation for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes.

More Details about this video animation The video animation shows the near surface (10m) winds and rainfall intensity over the Gulf of Mexico and the surrounding land areas during the main development phase of Hurricane Katrina, August 24 - 30, 2005, based on NCEP - GFS forecast model analyses.

Using a modern tropical cyclone model (simulating the famous hurricane Andrew of 1992, which was forecast to make landfall around Miami) they find cyclone modification is indeed theoretically capable of reducing hurricane development and storm damage.

Traders and managers of energy mutual funds and hedge funds are also using AER's seasonal forecasts, environmental research, climate models, and weather and hurricane forecasts to optimize their investment strategies.

It remains to be seen how much of an improvement the new HWRF model will bring to this year's hurricane forecasts, but the bar has been set so low that any progress would be heralded as a breakthrough.

For example, as part of HFIP, a group of researchers set up shop in Boulder, Colo., far from tropical weather systems, where they took advantage of high speed computer resources to duplicate a computer model that the Hurricane Center relies on to make its forecasts.

Data from an ocean glider equipped with a host of scientific instrumentation and deployed ahead of the storm allowed researchers not only to see how sediment was being redistributed by the hurricane as the storm unfolded but also to compare their real - life observations with forecasts from mathematical models.

Since becoming operational in 1995, the GFDL hurricane model has played a major role in improving hurricane prediction, resulting in a significant reduction in track forecast error.

The GFDL hurricane model had the most reliable track guidance and smallest track forecast errors through 3 days lead time and was near the top of the pack at 4 - and 5 - day lead time.

Results from real - data simulations and forecasts strongly suggested the potential of improving hurricane prediction with a comprehensive three - dimensional model.

Until recently, even the most sophisticated dynamical weather prediction models were unable to provide skillful forecasts of changes to a hurricane's intensity.

In this section, we examine how well the GFDL hurricane model has performed throughout its years as an operational forecasting system.

However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction.

NHC uses the GFDL hurricane model as one of its main sources of forecast guidance.

The figure above compares the average track forecast errors in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the past six hurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during thihurricane seasons for the most reliable computer models available to the National Hurricane Center during thiHurricane Center during this period.

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

GFDL scientists focus on model - building relevant for society, such as hurricane research, weather and ocean prediction, seasonal forecasting, and understanding global and regional climate change.

NOAA meteorologists use a suite of sophisticated numerical models and high - tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes.

Hurricane intensity forecasts have lagged behind, but this season, forecasters plan to take advantage of faster, more up - to - date computer models to try to make intensity forecasts more reliable.