Sentences with phrase «hurricane forecasting more»

Not exact matches

And when making hurricane predictions more than five days out, spaghetti plots are as informative as forecasts get.

More from USA Today: Hurricane Matthew shifts closer to Florida, forecast says Hurricane Matthew: Here are scenarios for the USA Sprites dance above Hurricane Matthew

Oct 30 (Reuters)- Hurricane Sandy appears to have easily caused more losses than last year's Hurricane Irene, but final totals will be hard to come by for some time because of the scale of the disaster, catastrophe forecasting companies said on Tuesday.

The forecasting service is expecting at least four more named storms, two of which may be hurricane strength, and at least one of which may be a major hurricane.

When there's a spate of major hurricanes, people tend to wonder if we're entering an era of bigger and more powerful storms, says Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, a Pennsylvania - based company that provides forecasts.

Scientists working to improve storm intensity forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.

And that means more numerous and stronger hurricanes in the foreseeable future, whether the forecast is from a computer model or a meteorologist's instincts.

Irene's forecast path gets more uncertain later on, so the hurricane may move out to sea or move further inland.

Gabriel Vecchi, head of the climate variations and predictability group at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab and another author on the paper, says decades of weather prediction data show that forecasts have improved — and will improve — as scientists learn more about hurricanes.

Without more detailed satellite observations, extending the range of accurate weather forecasts — especially for such extreme events as hurricanes — would be severely restricted.

More than 13 years in the making, the center is designed to be the U.S. government's nerve center for a range of activities, including predicting hurricane tracks and forecasting ocean currents.

Bell said that he and his office, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, have been fielding questions about the August lull in Atlantic hurricanes and whether it would cause his forecast team to soften its May and August outlooks, which concluded that the 2013 season had a 70 percent chance of being more active than normal.

The mass of cumulus clouds had increased in bulk more rapidly than any spawning storm she could remember in her eighteen years monitoring and forecasting tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean with the National Underwater and Marine Agency Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Ophelia, the latest storm to form in a record 10 consecutive hurricanes this season, is forecast to hit Ireland in what could be the country's... Read More

Hurricane forecast models (the same ones that were used to predict Katrina's path) indicate a tendency for more intense (but not overall more frequent) hurricanes when they are run for climate change scenarios (Fig. 1).

There's plenty more on the gulf forecast on the National Hurricane Center page for Atlantic storms, Jeff Masters» Wunderblog and at Brian McNoldy's Tropical Atlantic Headquarters page.

The first thorough federal review of research on how global warming may affect extreme climate events in North America forecasts more drenching rains, parching droughts (especially in the Southwest), intense heat waves and stronger hurricanes if long - lived greenhouse gases continue building in the atmosphere.

They released a detailed spending plan, saying among other things that more money could increase computing power, a prerequisite for gaining insights and forecasting skill on drought, tornadoes, hurricanes and regional impacts of human - caused climate change.

Here's the scene in the Miami forecasting center, which illustrates why the midpoint of hurricane forecast tracks is relatively meaningless: Read more...

The other forecasts, such as for hurricanes, rainfall, and snow cover, are not significantly different than under natural variability, and will advance more slowly than the decadal oscillations.

That data, scientists said at the Nov. 10 briefing, can be used to improve hurricane forecasting by providing more data and in a more timely manner than possible with other satellites or hurricane - tracking aircraft.

More Details about this video animation The video animation shows the near surface (10m) winds and rainfall intensity over the Gulf of Mexico and the surrounding land areas during the main development phase of Hurricane Katrina, August 24 - 30, 2005, based on NCEP - GFS forecast model analyses.

They predict, project or forecast that heat waves will intensify, droughts and floods will be stronger and more frequent, hurricanes will be more frequent and violent, sea levels will rise four feet by 2100 [versus eight inches since 1880], and forest fires and other natural calamities will be worse than ever before.

With the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season now underway, forecasters are determined to make more accurate forecasts.

A forecast in the 2007 report that hurricanes would become more intense has simply been dropped, without mention.

The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.

I believe that warming forecasts have been substantially exaggerated (in part due to positive feedback assumptions) and that tales of current climate change trends are greatly exaggerated and based more on noting individual outlier events and not through real data on trends (see hurricanes, for example).

Hurricane intensity forecasts have lagged behind, but this season, forecasters plan to take advantage of faster, more up - to - date computer models to try to make intensity forecasts more reliable.

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