Records from the 20th Century suggest that
hurricane formation over the Atlantic has changed phase every few decades: the 1940s and 50s were active, the 70s and 80s less so, while the currently active phase appears to have commenced in 1995.
El Niño is a key factor in making
hurricane seasonal forecasts because the changes in atmospheric patterns
over the tropical Pacific that it ushers in have a domino effect on patterns
over the Atlantic, tending to suppress
hurricane formation.