Re # 205 My initial concerns were about the path functions for hurricanes and not for the theoretical mechanisms of hurricane formation nor for the predicted relations of
hurricane intensity with rising sst's etc..
This is the foundation of the Dvorak Enhanced Infrared (EIR) technique [Dvorak, 1984], which is utilized by all tropical forecast offices in every ocean basin to estimate
hurricane intensity with geostationary infrared imagery.
Not exact matches
The best historical analogue for a
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity forecast for Irma may be Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and
intensity forecast for Irma may be
Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 m
Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm
with 140 mph winds.
There are so many more
hurricanes, tornados, famine, simonies, floods, and so on which are increasing continually and
with more
intensity.
Based on these factors alone, they then predicted the
intensity of each
hurricane,
with and without rainpower.
Activity within the eyewall is closely connected to the
hurricane's overall
intensity,
with the vertical updraft fed by an inward - spiraling, ocean - hugging wind whose average speed is the highest across the whole storm.
On the east coast, coral reef bleaching, heat waves and increased
hurricane intensity are just some of the warming - related hazards Floridians have had to deal
with in recent years.
The errant forecast said 2013 would see above - average activity,
with eight
hurricanes and three that would develop into major
hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the five - step Saffir - Simpson
intensity scale.
Recent advances have improved NOAA's
intensity forecasts by 20 percent, but there are so many variables influencing the developing of a
hurricane — from the energy they draw from the oceans to their interactions
with the surrounding environment and their dynamic inner cores — that storms like Matthew befuddle many experts.
Climate change intersects
with hurricanes by increasing storm rainfall,
intensity, and surge.
By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in
hurricane frequency and
intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up
with a modeling system
with seasonal skill in regional
hurricane prediction.
Globally, estimates of the potential destructiveness of
hurricanes show a significant upward trend since the mid-1970s,
with a trend towards longer lifetimes and greater storm
intensity, and such trends are strongly correlated
with tropical SST.
Building on methods they used to assess the impact of
hurricanes such as Katrina, Gustav, and Rita on forests and tree mortality, scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have produced a rapid mapping of the disturbance
intensity across Puerto Rico's forests
with the help of Google Earth Engine.
«Over the past decade, we've partnered
with NOAA scientists on projects ranging from ocean acidification, to measuring Arctic waves to collecting storm
intensity data from the surface of the
hurricane,» said Gary Gysin, President and CEO of Liquid Robotics.
Gore indicated that it is primarily
Hurricane intensities which scientists largely agree should be expected to increase in association
with warming surface temperatures, and specifically notes that
(1) Lowman had already created
hurricane radar paintings once before with Hurricane Katrina, and with climate change expected to accelerate the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, he has created perhaps his most cynical body of
hurricane radar paintings once before
with Hurricane Katrina, and with climate change expected to accelerate the frequency and intensity of tropical storms, he has created perhaps his most cynical body of
Hurricane Katrina, and
with climate change expected to accelerate the frequency and
intensity of tropical storms, he has created perhaps his most cynical body of work yet.
With regard to Williams answer to Terry (# 34), I believe that Terry is correct that it is temperature differences that are fundamental, and not, for the most part, the temperature itself, as Emanuel has discussed in a series of important papers on the maximum
intensity that
hurricanes can attain.
If your question has to do
with storm /
hurricane numbers and
intensity, I would note that is not exactly settled.
Furiously destructive Hurricanes are not the only indicator of AGW, in context of those Hurricanes cycles in the past, or rather in contrast
with past high
intensity hurricane seasons, we now experience all time high temperatures raging everywhere in the world, 1 meter a day rainfalls, severe droughts on 4 distinct continents, many glaciers going or gone everywhere, and a good chunk of the Arctic Ocean permanent ice melted.
These studies, however, have focused on the frequency of all tropical storms and
hurricanes (lumping the weak ones in
with the strong ones) rather than a measure of changes in the
intensity of the storms.
This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2
hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal
intensity distribution,
with the secondary maximum at Category 4
hurricanes.
In contrast to Michaels et al., who exclusively emphasize uncertainties that lead to smaller future changes, uncertainties are noted that could lead to either smaller or larger changes in future
intensities of
hurricanes than those summarized in the original study,
with accompany in smaller or larger societal impacts.
With respect to 181, if global warming increases sea surface temperatures which contribute to an intensification of tropical cyclones, then storms with winds below hurricane intensity will more frequently attain hurricane status (~ 100 kph win
With respect to 181, if global warming increases sea surface temperatures which contribute to an intensification of tropical cyclones, then storms
with winds below hurricane intensity will more frequently attain hurricane status (~ 100 kph win
with winds below
hurricane intensity will more frequently attain
hurricane status (~ 100 kph winds).
As
with the
intensity of
hurricanes, that's a tough, if not impossible, call.
Why is Katrina used as an example of
hurricane intensity, when it was documented as only a Category 3
hurricane (albeit
with a large storm surge)?
«The IPCC Summary notes that there is evidence for increased
hurricane intensity in the North Atlantic, which is correlated
with higher sea surface temperatures.
In part of course, because they neatly symbolize the two opposing camps in the current debate: contrast for example Emanuel's work demonstrating a linkage between increasing
hurricane intensity and global warming
with Gray's denial of any such link.
Speaking of AGW and
hurricanes and recent attempts to lenghthen the storm record
with proxy data: I don't see how isotopic studies of the origin of rainfall waters in tree rings or sediment overwash studies can tell us accurately the past frequency or
intensity of landfalling
hurricanes.
As early as 1992 my Earth Day display on GW had a big
hurricane on it,
with mention of GW contributing to
hurricane intensity AND frequency.
it seems that your conclusion:» the observed relationship between increased
intensity of TCs and rising ocean temperatures appears to be robust» is in direct contradiction
with your conclusion «our knowledge of likely future changes in
hurricanes or tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an uncertain area of science».
«The EOFs contain information about
hurricane eye temperature (when an eye is present), the height of the convective eyewall clouds, and the average radial structure of cloudiness around the storm [cf. Kossin et al., 2007], and these factors are correlated
with hurricane intensity.
Assuming that the effects of GHG reductions on
hurricane intensity are instantaneous and exactly proportional to emissions concentrations (also dubious assumptions, but lets go
with them) under full and successful implementation of Kyoto, including the participation of the US, the reduction in projected damages would be about $ 0.03.»
Today, flooding remains the most pressing concern
with future vulnerability increased by climate change increases in
hurricane intensity, continued subsidence, loss of protective wetlands, and inadequate protection.
But their findings, if potential
intensity is a valid marker for
hurricane activity is any measure, are quite clear:
hurricane activity isnt going to change much even
with 3C warming in the oceans.
In following the course of projections for this storm, and then the burst of criticism about failed
intensity forecasts, I was brought back to the hours I spent
with meteorologists at the National
Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of
Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major
hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from
hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from Mobile).
So, on the one hand you have the claim that Atlantic
hurricane intensity is controlled by the AMO, whose mechanism is poorly understood but which has something to do
with the meridional overturning circulation, which is influenced by the sinking of water off of Greenland.
Since daily ACE represents a 4 - times daily sum of wind speed squared, an «average» September 21st could see one of the following (among other combos): One TC at 125 knots Two TCs at 90 knots Three TCs at 70 knots or Six TCs at 50 knots Current TCs = 0 September 15: Global
Hurricane Frequency [storms
with maximum
intensity greater than 64 knots] has dramatically collapsed during the past 2 - 3 years.
In doing so, they fail to recognize the important distinction between the operational
hurricane forecasting problem (a classical initial value problem) and the boundary value problem addressed in KT04, where one is concerned
with the maximum
hurricane intensity that is possible for a given set of largescale environmental conditions (i.e., a climatological or statistical distribution of maximum
intensities).
The intense rainfall was due to a complicated interplay between the
intensity of the
hurricane, its path, and the fact that it stalled over the coast
with part of it still over the water so the storm dynamics could access the heat and moisture of the Gulf.
With respect to hurricane intensity, there are observed trends indicating this and model results predicting this, and while there are problems in each (data problems with hurricanes, coarse resolution in global models, etc.), theoretical arguments also make clear that there will be more energy and water vapor available in the atmosphere to cause more intense hurricanes, so a very strong case can be made for this happen
With respect to
hurricane intensity, there are observed trends indicating this and model results predicting this, and while there are problems in each (data problems
with hurricanes, coarse resolution in global models, etc.), theoretical arguments also make clear that there will be more energy and water vapor available in the atmosphere to cause more intense hurricanes, so a very strong case can be made for this happen
with hurricanes, coarse resolution in global models, etc.), theoretical arguments also make clear that there will be more energy and water vapor available in the atmosphere to cause more intense
hurricanes, so a very strong case can be made for this happening.
Building on methods they used to assess the impact of
hurricanes such as Katrina, Gustav, and Rita on forests and tree mortality, scientists at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have produced a rapid mapping of the disturbance
intensity across Puerto Rico's forests
with the help of Google Earth Engine.
On Twitter, Facebook and a handful of other venues, hundreds of thousands of people in recent days have clicked or shared items
with headlines warning that
Hurricane Irma was poised to become a Category 6 storm (on the five - level Saffir - Simpson scale of hurricane intensity) that «could wipe entire cities off the ma
Hurricane Irma was poised to become a Category 6 storm (on the five - level Saffir - Simpson scale of
hurricane intensity) that «could wipe entire cities off the ma
hurricane intensity) that «could wipe entire cities off the map.»
Recently our news feeds were packed
with the unprecedented
intensity of North America's Atlantic
hurricane season.
«The IPCC hierarchy had its mind made up years ago to make every attempt possible to link rising levels of CO2
with increases in global
hurricane intensity and frequency... Input from skeptics or any hypothesis or data that did not link rises in CO2 to increases in tropical cyclone activity was to be avoided, suppressed, or rejected.»
-- The Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Director of the National Science Foundation shall enter into an arrangement
with the National Academy of Sciences to complete a study of the current state of the science on the potential impacts of climate change on patterns of
hurricane and typhoon development, including storm
intensity, track, and frequency, and the implications for
hurricane - prone and typhoon - prone coastal regions.
And consider this: even if we simply assume that greenhouse gases have a large and immediate impact on
hurricane intensities, there is little that mitigation efforts can do anyway to stem the ever - growing economic toll associated
with hurricanes.
The
intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes has increased in recent years, a pattern that is consistent
with climate change.
[24] For
hurricane evacuation studies, a family of storms
with representative tracks for the region, and varying
intensity, eye diameter, and speed, are modeled to produce worst - case water heights for any tropical cyclone occurrence.
Just like we will still have
hurricanes, hot days, and other significant climate events without climate change, the frequency and
intensity of these events increases
with climate change.
However, if present La Nina conditions continue, then Atlantic
hurricane intensity will increase, and more drought will be in the mix due to cooler and drier conditions
with less atmospheric moisture.