Sentences with phrase «hurricane landfall probabilities»
In addition to his scientific papers available on the GISS site, highlights of some of Hall's hurricane work have appeared on InsuranceLinked, including seasonal forecasts of hurricane landfall probabilities.
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/ Not exact matches
«This is the first set of numbers to show what the landfall probabilities are for catastrophic hurricanes,» Liu says.
Using these two methods, we find the probability of two or more hurricanes making U.S. landfall is 28 % during El Niño, 48 % during neutral years, and 66 % during El Viejo (Figure 1).
During El Niño, we are 90 % confident that the probability of no hurricanes making U.S. landfall is somewhere between 17 and 24 percent.
The reanalysis shows that during an El Niño year, the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. is 28 %.
Richards and O'Brien (1996) showed that the probability of 2 or more hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. coast during El Niño is 21 %, while the probability of 2 or more U.S. hurricanes during neutral conditions is 46 %.
He cautioned, though, that during more active seasons the odds increase for hurricanes to make landfall in the U.S. «We know for the conditions that we expect this year, historically there is a much higher probability of multiple hurricane strikes in the U.S.»