Sentences with phrase «hurricane prediction model»

Not exact matches

In fact, the European model's predictions for Hurricane Irma were closer to the actual path than other models.

What's more, whereas many models tend to overestimate the intensity of hurricanes in their predictions, theirs was a much closer match to historical observations, the researchers report online in Geophysical Research Letters.

Seeing himself as a strict empiricist whose hurricane predictions are based on decades of «crunching huge piles of data,» Gray is convinced that the atmosphere is too complicated to be captured in computer simulations, at one point fulminating that «any experienced meteorologist that believes in a climate model of any type should have their head examined.»

European and U.S. models frequently make different predictions about weather and storm tracks, including that of Hurricane Joaquin.

But last year, the team was able to improve the resolution on its hurricane model, which helped improve the intensity predictions.

By working on the still - not - fully - cracked nut of estimating changes in hurricane frequency and intensity in a warming climate, Gabe and his colleagues ended up with a modeling system with seasonal skill in regional hurricane prediction.

If we had a good model, we would have better predictions on hurricanes, which have been uniformly lousy for the last ten years.

All in all the science of hurricanes does appear to be much more fun and interesting than the average climate change issue, as there is a debate, a «fight» between different hypothesis, predictions compared to near - future observations, and all that does not always get pre-eminence in the exchanges about models.

(As an aside, we wonder how Gray, who is largely known for prediction of hurricane behavior based on (statistical) modeling, felt about this?).

Their work encompasses a range of problems and time scales: from five - day model predictions of hurricane track and intensity, to understanding the causes of changes in extremes over the past century, to building new climate prediction models for seamless predictions out to the next several years, to earth system model projections of human - caused changes in various extremes (heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, etc.) over the coming century.

«We have groups doing numerical weather prediction, hurricanes, climate, oceans, but in the international arena, countries have whole institutions doing the functions of these individual groups,» said Dr. Ronald J. Stouffer, who designs and runs climate models at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., a top Commerce Department center for weather and climate work.

In addition to confirming the models» predictions, the finding indicates that perhaps unsurprisingly, Hurricane Sandy was seriously stirring up the ocean floor along her path.

Since becoming operational in 1995, the GFDL hurricane model has played a major role in improving hurricane prediction, resulting in a significant reduction in track forecast error.

Results from real - data simulations and forecasts strongly suggested the potential of improving hurricane prediction with a comprehensive three - dimensional model.

Until recently, even the most sophisticated dynamical weather prediction models were unable to provide skillful forecasts of changes to a hurricane's intensity.

Since 1995, the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System has been used operationally by the National Hurricane Center and has consistently been one of the top - performing models utilized by NHC.

However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction.

The GFDL hurricane prediction system originated as a research model in the 1970s.

In a series of Atlantic basin - specific dynamical downscaling studies (Bender et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013), we attempted to address both of these limitations by letting the Atlantic basin regional model of Knutson et al. (2008) provide the overall storm frequency information, and then downscaling each individual storm from the regional model study into the GFDL hurricane prediction system.

The GFDL hurricane model used for the study is an enhanced resolution version of the model used to predict hurricanes operationally at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed and uses atmospheric and climate models for improving the understanding and prediction of hurricane behavior.

Since 1995, the GFDL Operational Hurricane Forecast Model has been used by the National Weather Service and has consistently been one of the top - performing models for the prediction of hurricanHurricane Forecast Model has been used by the National Weather Service and has consistently been one of the top - performing models for the prediction of hurricanehurricane tracks.

GFDL scientists focus on model - building relevant for society, such as hurricane research, weather and ocean prediction, seasonal forecasting, and understanding global and regional climate change.