On the other hand, the subtropical waters can be expected to become saltier in the future, for the same reason (increased
hydrological cycle gives more evaporation in the subtropics, thus increased salinities in subtropical waters).
Not exact matches
It has been argued that the land amplification is associated with lapse rate changes (not represented in the UVic model), and it is certain that drying of the land can play a role (not reliable in the UVic model since diffusing water vapor
gives you a crummy
hydrological cycle, especially over land).
In the context of future changes in the atmospheric
hydrological cycle, understanding precipitation changes in the subtropics is of particular importance
given
Volume
gives us an idea on how much freshwater is stored in Arctic sea ice — an important element in the global - Arctic
hydrological cycle, i.e., the
cycle of distillation due to freezing, and subsequent export, and melt.
As for your question about hurricanes, the argument
given for the global mean
hydrological cycle doesn't apply to the hurricane because the global mean argument assumes an equilibrium between radiative cooling and latent heat release.
«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme precipitation would be expected to have increased
given the evidence of anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global
hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme precipitation events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean precipitation..
Nobody disputes that physics but there is much empirical evidence that it can not
give rise to AGW (e.g. AGW is observed to be counteracted by the
hydrological cycle).
, it is quite reasonable to conjecture that «the» sensitivity of climate to a future doubling of CO2
given the climate as it is now is extremely close to 0, though I personally would probably expect at least an increase in the overall rate of the
hydrological cycle.
Characterizing and understanding the multidecadal variations of the continental
hydrological cycle is a challenging issue
given the limitation of observed data sets.
It is a
given that the existing models do not fully incorporate data or mechanisms involving cloudiness or global albedo (reflectivity) variations or variations in the speed of the
hydrological cycle and that the variability in the temperatures of the ocean surfaces and the overall ocean energy content are barely understood and wholly inadequately quantified in the infant attempts at coupled ocean / atmosphere models.
Given the abundance of this compound, the differing properties of its phases, and the amount of energy involved in phase transistions, it's intuitively plausible that the
hydrological cycle could dominate the planet's climate system.
The model has no realistic ocean, no El Niño, and no
hydrological cycle, and it was tuned to
give the result it
gave.