You may now understand why global temperature,
i.e. ocean heat content, shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2 over the last 800,000 years — as shown in the ice core records.
Not exact matches
We can estimate this independently using the changes in
ocean heat content over the last decade or so (roughly equal to the current radiative imbalance) of ~ 0.7 W / m2, implying that this «unrealised» forcing will lead to another 0.7 × 0.75 ºC —
i.e. 0.5 ºC.
Positive energy
content change means an increase in stored energy (
i.e.,
heat content in
oceans, latent
heat from reduced ice or sea ice volumes,
heat content in the continents excluding latent
heat from permafrost changes, and latent and sensible
heat and potential and kinetic energy in the atmosphere).
Even if ultimately there is real confidence in
ocean heat content data —
i.e. the trends exceed the differences in data handling — without understanding changes in reflected SW and emitted IR it remains impossible to understand the global energy dynamic.
With the current GHG
content in the atmosphere, more solar energy arrives than leaves via radiation -LRB-.85 + / -.15 Watt / m ^ 2), which raises the
heat content of the terrestrial system,
i.e., the average temperature over the whole earth +
oceans + atmosphere.
I.e.: the claim that the growing
heat content of the
oceans tells us that «the greenhouse effect has not taken a pause.»
i.e. picking superseded work using early models that didn't fully account for damping due to
ocean heat content.
Given that the most of the melting that goes on is from the underneath (
i.e. under the water) and
ocean heat content is at modern highs, and the
oceans have even released a bit less energy than average over the past 15 years, it is not a coincidence that ice would de line even faster during this period.
You ostensibly believe CO2 dominates despite not having the requisite scientific evidence to back up that assertion, not to mention paleoclimate data which heartily contradicts it (
i.e., CO2 levels rose while
ocean heat content declined, or OHC rose rapidly while CO2 levels were constant).
For global warming diagnosis, use
ocean heat content changes, recognizing that the deeper
ocean heating (
i.e. below the long term thermocline) is mostly unavailable to affect weather on multi-decadal time periods).
Ocean heat content changes are potentially a great way to evaluate climate model results that suggest that the planet is currently significantly out of equilibrium (
i.e. it is absorbing more energy than it is emitting).
Over the longer term the accuracy is better, there is less wiggle room, and in fact we are able to balance out the energy flows —
i.e. the increase in
ocean heat content is pretty much what is expected from the anticipated radiative imbalance (see the figure).
This argument would make sense only if variations in
ocean heat content alone rather than the sum of both the variation in OHC and of latent
heat from ice melt were indicative of AGW (
i.e. indicative of
heat gained from an externally forced TOA imbalance).
Actually, I have concluded that
ocean heat content is a much better metric to diagnose climate system
heat changes (
i.e. «global warming») than the surface temperature trends.
Advocates of the assumption that CO2 variations are a primary cause of changes in deep
ocean heat content (
i.e., those who author government - sponsored IPCC reports and activists for the anthropogenic global warming cause) have necessarily believed that past natural variations in deep
ocean heat content are very slow and gradual.