Furthermore, because the regression is being defined over
ice age cycles where the biggest changes are related to the (now disappeared) North American and Fenno - Scandanavian ice sheets, the regression might well be much less for situations where only Greenland and West Antarctica are «in play».
Not exact matches
The dominant signal in the temperature record (the white line in the above figure) is a 100,000 year
cycle where long
ice ages are broken by short warm periods called interglacials.
Yet another theory has been advanced by Peter Huybers who argued that the 41,000 - year
cycle has always been dominant, but that the Earth has entered a mode of climate behavior
where only the second or third
cycle triggers an
ice age.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point
where it is teetering between two states (our current 100,000 year
ice age warm period
cycle).
As astronomical
cycles they are predictable into the future and will cause another
ice age probably in around 50,000 years (that depends on
where the threshold for glaciation is, and what future CO2 levels will be at that time), but there is no way the Milankovich
cycles could explain the current global warming.
(And the average
age of all
ice never got above single digits) Because most of the thickness increases come in the first couple of years, and most old
ice is «old» because it is nearing the end of its natural
cycle (
where it thins to zero.)
For the
ice age — interglacial variations of the last few million years, a transition occured within the last million years
where a 100,000 year timescale seemed to become dominant, whereas previously the variations followed the obliquity (~ 40,000 years) and precession
cycles.
In geological time, the balance of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point
where it is teetering between two states (our current 100,000 year
ice age warm period
cycle).
The
ice at the GISP2 site in central Greenland was only one
ice age thick before they hit rock, (as opposed to Antarctica
where the
ice is more than 6
cycles 700,000 years thick) indicating that ALL the Central Greenland
ice melted during the previous warming
cycle (125,000 years ago).
Ice age timing has been set for the past million years or so by a 100,000 year
cycle where the eccentricity of the earth's orbit changes.
Based on the
cycle, it would suggest that we are heading into another
Ice Age period of cooling where global temperatures will drop and ice will again form heavily at the pol
Ice Age period of cooling
where global temperatures will drop and
ice will again form heavily at the pol
ice will again form heavily at the poles.
Where is the evidence of some other natural forcing, like the Milankovich
cycles that controlled the
ice ages (a fine historical example of a dramatic and regular climate
cycle that can be read in the
ice core records taken both in Greenland and in the Antarctic)?
Within this far more recent part of our planet's history the current disturbance of the radiative balance is unique at least over the last 20,000 years, stretching the entire Holocene up to the point
where the Milankovitch
cycles thought it fit to end the last
ice age.
That includes the
ice age cycles,
where CO2 was not the initial cause, but a strong amplifying feedback.