Floating
ice changes albedo when it melts, not sea level.
This is largely because melting sea
ice changes the albedo of high latitude oceans, and to a lesser extent because an inversion prevails at high latitudes, especially in winter, whereas at low latitudes the heating is convectively mixed througout the troposphere.
Read more: Stanford University Aerosols Also Implicated in Glacier Melting, Changing Weather Patterns Other research examining the effects of soot on melting glaciers and changing weather pattens in South Asia has reached similar conclusions: Beyond increasing atmospheric warming, because the soot coats the surface of the snow and
ice it changes the albedo of the surface, allowing it to absorb more sunlight and thereby accelerating melting.
Not exact matches
A diminishing
albedo in Arctic sea
ice can be considered both the cause and effect of
changes in sea
ice.
Scripps graduate student Kristina Pistone and climate scientists Ian Eisenman and Veerabhadran Ramanathan used satellite measurements to calculate Arctic
albedo changes associated with the
changing sea
ice cover.
Virtually
ice - free summers in the arctic sea could well arrive by 2030, with troubling implications for accelerated
albedo feedback and possibly disruptive
changes in the jet stream.
Also about the
ice -
albedo feedback within 1K temperature oscillation the
albedo will
change of, let us say, 10 %, so for an increase of 1K the
albedo will decrease from A = 0.3 to A = 0.27.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea
ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and
ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
What G&T are missing is the linear effect of water vapour accelerating the
ice albedo effect of
change in size of the sea
ice sheets.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature
change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface
albedo from more
ice / snow cover, and also
changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).
There was more
ice around in the LGM and that
changes the weighting of
ice -
albedo feedback, but also the operation of the cloud feedback since clouds over
ice have different effects than clouds over water.
[Response: UVic doesn't model
changes in cloud
albedo, but I'm quite sure it models
changes in
albedo due to sea
ice and land
ice.
Parameters
changed in PIOMAS calibration are typically the surface
albedo and roughness, and the
ice strength.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use, snow and
ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
How will
albedo changes, increased rainfall and melt in Greenland affect
ice degradation?
Does the model accurately reproduce some basic phenomena that happens in the real world when you
change the GHG, or the aerosols, solar radiation, or
ice albedo?
Other factors would include: —
albedo shifts (both from
ice > water, and from increased biological activity, and from edge melt revealing more land, and from more old dust coming to the surface...); — direct effect of CO2 on
ice (the former weakens the latter); — increasing, and increasingly warm, rain fall on
ice; — «stuck» weather systems bringing more and more warm tropical air ever further toward the poles; — melting of sea
ice shelf increasing mobility of glaciers; — sea water getting under parts of the
ice sheets where the base is below sea level; — melt water lubricating the
ice sheet base; —
changes in ocean currents -LRB-?)
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea
ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot and dust on snow and
ice decreasing
albedo, and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has
changed so little over time.
The
change in
ice volume and climate
changes the planets
albedo (how much sunlight is reflected) and affect carbon storage.
What G&T are missing is the linear effect of water vapour accelerating the
ice albedo effect of
change in size of the sea
ice sheets.
I've been told by a friend that James Hansen once said that
albedo changes from melting the arctic sea
ice would capture as much additional heat as doubling CO2.
For example, the
ice age — interglacial cycles that we have been locked in for the past few million years seem to be triggered by subtle
changes in the earth's orbit around the sun and in its axis of rotation (the Milankovitch cycles) that then cause
ice sheets to slowly build up (or melt away)... which
changes the
albedo (reflectance) of the earth amplifying this effect.
The resulting increased / decreased
ice is amplified by «various feedbacks, including
ice -
albedo, dust, vegetation and, of course, the carbon cycle which amplify the direct effects of the orbital
changes.»
This implies a forcing of 3 W / m2 for
albedo changes presumably due to additional
ice / snow sheets.
The Arctic sea
ice melting out above 75N would have almost no impact at all if that is the forcing
change of glaciers down to Chicago and sea
ice down to 45N (at lower latitudes where the
Albedo has much more impact).
This was a relatively stable climate (for several thousand years, 20,000 years ago), and a period where we have reasonable estimates of the radiative forcing (
albedo changes from
ice sheets and vegetation
changes, greenhouse gas concentrations (derived from
ice cores) and an increase in the atmospheric dust load) and temperature
changes.
Hansen et al. (1993) calculated the
ice age forcing due to surface
albedo change to be 3.5 + / - Wm ^ -2.
, (3)
changes in surface
albedo of snow &
ice due to
changes in temperature and deposition of mineral and black carbon particulates, and last, but arguably most significantly (4) the intensity of the positive feedback that comes from the inevitable -LRB-?)
Volume
change includes both the area reduction (
change in
ice coverage,
albedo, and heat absorption / reflection) and the thickness (vulnerability).
As for irreversible, if an
ice sheet starts flowing, or if an
albedo change from sea
ice gets locked in, I could imagine a climate
change being essentially irreversible even if CO2 was brought back down, but it's just speculation, nothing more.
«Soot snow /
ice albedo climate forcing is not included in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change evaluations.
What other things in the Earth system will
change when it warms up that will affect how much SW radiation is reflected back into space [eg
ice -
albedo feedback, cloud
changes] or affect what proportion of emitted LW radiation is allowed to escape to space [eg Water Vapour, cloud
changes].
For instance, the effect of soot making snow and sea
ice darker has a higher efficacy than an equivalent
change in CO2 with the same forcing, mainly because there is a more important
ice -
albedo feedback in the soot case.
In LGM simulations land
albedo changes are prescribed (at least in regards to
ice sheets and altered topography due to sea level; there are feedback land
albedo changes) so are a forcing, whereas sea
ice is determined interactively by the model climate, so is a feedback in this framework.
A few productive search terms will give him a good start: tundra
albedo change «sea
ice» algae «primary productivity» permafrost
I am under the impression that it is driven by CO2 mediated
ice - loss that generates
albedo changes resulting in positive feedbacks that increase further melting.
Since it reflects the capacity of the climate system to absorb heat, it may be influenced by the planetary
albedo (sea -
ice and snow) and
ice - caps, which respond to temperature
changes.
Ice cover
changes albedo.
(In the full 4 - dimensional climate, responses can also tend spread horizontally by convection (advection) and temporally by heat capacity, though «fingerprints» of horizontal and temporal variations in RF (externally imposed and feedback — snow and
ice albedo, for example) can remain — this spreading is somewhat different as it relies in part on the circulation already present as well as circulation
changes)
My reasoning was that, iirc, black carbon has played an important role in the
ice loss by
changing albedo.
It could be hiding in melting
ice, or through
albedo changes there may be no added heat at all.
Isn't there an even bigger issue that approx half of the temperature amplitude between glacial and interglacial isn't actually due to CO2 or other GHG, but to
albedo changes (
ice albedo feedback)?
The
changes in total insolation resulting from spreading
ice (and the accompanying
change in
albedo) by themselves are no where near enough to drop temperatures by the amount needed.
In particular, there are «slow» responses to the imbalance that are seen in the glacial record — CO2 and methane increase with a slow lag as temperature rises in response to the orbital
changes, and the
albedo effect that reduces incoming sunlight decreases as the
ice melts, also with a slow lag.
It doesn't have to be CO2 — in this case it's seasonal insolation
changes which cause an expansion of
ice cover which cause a
change in the planet's overall
albedo.
Both are related to feedback mechanisms which can amplify or dampen initial
changes, such as the connection between temperature and the
albedo associated with sea -
ice and snow.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional
changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea
ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
So
albedo change (owing to
changes in orbital forcing, which is what melts the
ice sheets) was comparable to, and probably larger than, the CO2
change.
In their latest Science paper submittal Jim Hansen, et al. argue that we must reduce atmospheric CO2 to below 350 ppm because so - called «slow feedbacks» such as
changes in
ice sheet
albedo are occurring much faster than expected.
The Arctic Ocean losing its
ice is almost certainly involved in the initiation of northern thermohaline demise, so
albedo change will compensate.