The researchers found a «pronounced change» towards very low
sea ice concentration in the two seas since 2004.
The researchers found a «pronounced change» towards very low sea
ice concentration in the two seas since 2004.
Raw model sea
ice concentration data was processed using a simple linear regression model and satellite derived ice extent to produce bias corrected predictions.
The forecast (Figure 2) shows below - normal
ice concentrations throughout the whole region, suggesting an earlier - than - normal opening of the shipping season.
The ice age product is based on a 15 % sea
ice concentration threshold to be consistent with the threshold used for mapping overall sea ice extent.
A note of caution: To avoid erroneous
ice concentration along coasts (satellite signal mixed from land and ocean), near coastal - areas have to be excluded.
The results indicate that concurrent atmospheric circulation trends contribute to forcing winter and summer sea
ice concentration trends in many parts of the marginal ice zone during both periods.
The solid red lines correspond to the
analysis ice concentrations (25 percent, 50 percent and 75 percent) used as input for the wave model.
Colors like yellow and lavender indicating higher concentrations come and go, but weak
ice concentration areas indicated by green tend to stick around.
It is therefore important to consider both loss of
sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness in evaluating the response of the atmosphere.
The model forecast
of ice concentration anomalies suggests an opening date for the shipping route to Churchill close to the climatology mean date, ~ July 25th; advanced clearing in Hudson Strait (Figure 3) and near the Port of Churchill suggests an early opening may be possible.
Yuan et al. (LDEO Columbia University), 5.08 (+ / - 0.51), Statistical The prediction is made by statistical models, which are capable to predict Arctic sea
ice concentrations at grid points 3 - month in advance with reasonable skills.
Pond formation and small floe sizes in dispersed ice (and coastal effects on the radiometer signal) contribute to substantial biases in the
derived ice concentration data.
The statistical forecast submitted by Tivy for
September ice concentration anomalies in the Beaufort - Chukchi Sea region has remained unchanged.
We are pleased to announce that the High Latitude Level 3 Global AMSR Sea
Ice concentration product is operational since March 16th 2017.
A look at Arctic sea
ice concentration over the last 100 years (through 2013) using the latest NSIDC gridded 1850 - reconstruction from Walsh et al. [2016].
The lower sea
ice concentration observed north of the Beaufort Sea in the area and explored during CHINARE 2008 with Xuelong seems to have been preconditioned by a strong and persistent northward sea ice drift that lasted for several months from spring (April 2008), when ice stations were deployed north of the Canadian polar station Eureka, to well into the summer.
The regression - based statistical forecast for
July ice concentration anomalies submitted by Tivy (Figure 4) for the June report remains unchanged.
All this cold water being released into the ocean has a significant impact on the formation of sea ice, resulting in higher rates of sea
ice concentration around Antarctica.
The pan Arctic SIE calculated from
predicted ice concentration in September 2015 is projected to be 5.08 million km2, lower than the observed extents in 2013 and 2014, but still above the historical low in 2012.
This reduction is also illustrated by the following satellite observations of the
minimum ice concentration for 1979 (left) and 2003 (right).
Thus, during the optimal season for whelping, 99 % of their foraging habitat is covered
by ice concentrations greater than 15 % and as high as 100 %.
The white line represents the satellite observed September 2009 ice edge defined as the 15 %
ice concentration contour while the black line is the model - predicted September 2010 ice edge.
1) Walsh and Chapman construct a sea
ice concentration record based available data, which prior to 1978 is based on reports from shipping and aircraft.
Sea ice extent is defined as the surface area enclosed by the sea ice edge (where sea
ice concentration falls below 15 %).
Compared to the long - term average, sea
ice concentration north of Alaska and eastern Siberia was especially low in 2010.
Phrases with «ice concentration»